Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 21 September 2026
The market took profits on the first session, and it did so despite conditions that should have pushed the other way. That contrast is the whole story of today.
Spot now $4,349 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,360 ·
Our weekly call settles on the Friday 25 September close. Four sessions remain, and one day inside a range proves very little. We are writing this down now so that nobody — including us — can reread it later as though we had claimed more than we did.
What can be said factually: Friday closed at $4,378. Today gold traded between $4,341 and $4,384 and sits at $4,349. The range-bound scenario we published on Saturday, and weighted at 45%, spans $4,300–$4,420. Today’s entire range fell inside it.
Wall Street’s survey that weekend was 16 bullish out of 16. We published a different view. The verdict on that disagreement belongs to Saturday, not today.
Our social posts have been summarising the record as “two wrong calls, 10 and 11 September”. That is inaccurate. There is one wrong forecast: 10 September. The red mark sits on the 11 September page only because grading always publishes a day later, and the 11 September forecast itself was graded correct in the weekly summary of 12 September.
We are correcting it here because the number has to be right in both directions — including when the error makes us look worse than we are.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,349 | −0.65% today |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,268 | was 7,314 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,663 | was 6,705 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,360 | was 6,400 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,451 | was 5,485 |
Counter prices set today at 11:40 AM Cairo time, metal only, before making charge. This morning’s report said the local price would probably ease with the first update of the day if the international price stayed where it was. It did, by EGP 40 a gram. The conversion factor barely moved (about 1.462), so the Egyptian-pound targets below still stand.
The week opened in a profit-taking mood. Gold had risen three sessions in a row last week, and it is unremarkable for buyers to take something off the table when a new week starts. What is not unremarkable is the backdrop it happened against.
Three separate supports, and the metal still finished lower. The most economical explanation is the one we set out in yesterday’s analysis and weighted at 30%: there are no new buyers left at these levels. Speculative positioning is near the top of its historical range, and last week’s rally had the signature of short covering rather than fresh money.
Pulling the other way, the market-implied probability of another rate increase in October rose from 53% to 58% after Warsh repeated that the Fed intends to return inflation to 2%.
There were no significant US data releases today. That is worth stating plainly, because a market moving on positioning rather than on numbers behaves differently — and because anyone telling you today’s session hinged on an economic release is inventing one.
Covering the 21 September close through the morning of Tuesday 22 September
🇦🇬 In Egyptian pounds, 21K by tomorrow morning: EGP 6,257 – 6,491, most likely EGP 6,315 – 6,418, assuming the currency holds.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,280 | EGP 6,257 |
| $4,320 (100-day average) | EGP 6,315 |
| $4,349 (now) | EGP 6,358 |
| $4,390 | EGP 6,418 |
| $4,420 | EGP 6,461 |
| $4,440 | EGP 6,491 |
📍 Metal only, from our own price list, before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,541 | 200-day moving average — the ceiling |
| $4,432–4,445 | Resistance band |
| $4,401 | Friday’s high |
| $4,384 | Today’s high |
| $4,341 | Today’s low |
| $4,320 | 100-day moving average — support |
| $4,300 | Floor of the range-bound band |
While gold holds between $4,320 and $4,420 we remain inside our primary scenario. A daily close above $4,450 with the 10-year below 4.90% means the bullish case was right and ours was not — and we will publish that. A break of $4,320 means last week’s advance was position-covering and nothing more.
Today was empty by design. The week is concentrated in three sessions:
10:00–11:00 AM — European manufacturing and services activity surveys.
4:45 PM — the US equivalents.
Strong US readings lift the dollar and press gold; weak readings do the reverse.
10:30 AM — Swiss National Bank rate decision.
3:30 PM — US weekly jobless claims.
During the day — the Trump–Xi summit.
Labour data is what decides whether October brings another hike. The summit cuts
both ways: escalation supports gold, de-escalation weighs on it.
3:30 PM — US durable goods orders.
5:00 PM — final University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
Midnight Cairo time — the weekly close, which is what our call is graded on.
Fed speakers appear throughout the week, and historically they move this market more than any scheduled release.
International prices and session ranges are read from the live market through the trading day; the Kitco weekly survey is the published Wall Street/retail sentiment poll of 18 September; rate probabilities are the market-implied odds for the October meeting. Local prices are our own counter prices, timestamped above, published at aarefjewelry.net/en/gold-prices-egypt.html.
How a forecast is graded, what the denominator is, and the one call we have got wrong are all set out on the track record page.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.