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A forecast that cannot be marked wrong is not a forecast. These are the rules we published first and have not changed since, plus the arithmetic behind every number on this site.
That third rule is deliberately unkind to us. A three-scenario forecast that covers most of the plausible range is easy to get “right”, which is exactly why we also publish the probability weight on each scenario and a written falsification condition — see below.
Since the first report on 30 August 2026:
Three of the twenty are not in the denominator, and we would rather say why than quietly round the number up. One is the forecast currently open, which settles on the 25 September close and has not been graded yet. The others were a weekly summary and a correction page that carried no new price scenario of their own. We do not count a page as a correct call unless it made a call.
The accuracy figure is therefore correct calls divided by graded calls, and the newest open forecast is always excluded until it closes.
We put the likely range too high and the close finished outside all three published scenarios. The page is still on the site, unedited, and the verdict marking it wrong was published the following morning above the next day’s forecast, exactly where a reader would see it.
Because verdicts publish a day late, the red mark on our calendar sits on the 11 September page rather than the 10th. That trips people up, including us — see the correction below.
For several weeks our social posts summarised the record as “two wrong calls, 10 and 11 September”. That was wrong, and wrong in the direction that made us look worse than the archive does. There is one wrong forecast: 10 September. The red mark appears on the 11 September page only because grading always publishes a day later, and the 11 September forecast itself was graded correct in the weekly summary of 12 September.
We are recording it here for the same reason we record the misses: the number has to be right in both directions, including when the error is in our favour.
On 18 September, Kitco’s weekly Wall Street survey came back 16 bullish out of 16, with no bearish responses — the most one-sided reading of this cycle. We published a different view the same weekend, before the week opened:
The disagreement is about timing, not direction. The consensus says the road is up. We think the road is up but runs through a rest stop first, because speculative positioning sits near the top of its historical range and last week’s advance looked like short covering rather than new money.
Published in the same paragraph as the forecast, not added afterwards: a daily close above $4,450 with the US 10-year yield below 4.90% means the bullish scenario was the right one and ours was not, and we will write that on the Saturday. On the other side, a break of $4,320 would confirm that the advance was position-covering and nothing more.
Day one of five closed at $4,349 — inside our primary range. One day is not evidence, and we have said so on the site in the same words.
Every dated report since 30 August 2026 is public. The reports are currently written in full in Arabic; English editions are being published from here forward, and the archive is being translated. Every figure quoted on this page appears on the Arabic page carrying the date it was published on.