Home › Gold forecasts › Tuesday 22 September 2026
It fell to $4,302 — and the thing that pushed it there is the exact condition we wrote down yesterday as the trigger. That is the part worth reading.
Spot now $4,302 · −0.94% · Monday’s close $4,343 ·
Monday’s primary scenario, weighted at 50%, was a quiet session in the middle of the range, $4,320–$4,390, with no break and no breakout. The session closed at $4,343 — squarely inside it, and inside the scenario we called most likely rather than one of the alternatives.
The second scenario, weighted 30%, was pressure toward $4,280–$4,320, and we attached a condition to it in writing: a firmer dollar and the 10-year yield back above 5%. Today the yield rose to 4.97% and gold fell to $4,302. The second scenario began working after the close, on the trigger we had published.
Record: 21 published · 17 correct · 94% (17 of 18 graded calls; today’s is still open). How grading works →
The weekly forecast — the one that disagreed with a Kitco survey of 16 bullish analysts out of 16 — settles on the Friday 25 September close. The range we weighted at 45% is $4,300–$4,420. Gold is at $4,302. We are on the floor of it by two dollars.
So let us say this plainly now, before anyone can read it generously later: if Friday closes below $4,300, our range-bound call is wrong, and the correct scenario was the pullback we weighted at only 20%. We would have been right about direction against Wall Street and wrong about the bucket — and that is what we will write on Saturday, in those words.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,302 | −0.94% today |
| Monday’s close | $4,343 | inside our forecast |
| US 10-year yield | 4.97% | from 4.93% |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,200 | was 7,268 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,600 | was 6,663 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,300 | was 6,360 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,400 | was 5,451 |
✅ Reset at 12:40 PM — and the estimate held. Earlier this morning, in this same place, we wrote that 21K would probably come down toward EGP 6,290. It was reset to EGP 6,300 — ten pounds out, written an hour before it happened. The move was EGP 60 a gram from Monday, and the local conversion factor is now 1.464 rather than 1.462. The Egyptian-pound ranges below were computed at the old factor and differ by under ten pounds; we are leaving them exactly as published, because we do not revise a number after it has gone out. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
Yesterday we wrote that gold fell despite conditions that should have supported it, and that the most economical explanation was an absence of new buyers. Today those conditions reversed.
When the support disappears and the pressure returns, the result is not a surprise: gold broke the 100-day moving average at $4,320 for the first time in two weeks.
Covering the 22 September close through the morning of Wednesday 23 September
🇦🇬 21K in Suez by tomorrow morning: EGP 6,184 – 6,404, most likely EGP 6,243 – 6,331, assuming the currency holds.
Yesterday’s report contained this sentence: if the dollar firms and the yield goes back above 5%, we test the 100-day average at $4,320 and may break it. Today it happened, and it broke.
The value of publishing the condition in advance is not so that we can say we told you. It is that you now have a marker you can watch yourself, without waiting for anyone to interpret it for you. The 10-year yield is a public number available to anyone. When it clears 5% you know the pressure on gold has increased; when it falls back under 4.90% you know the picture has turned.
That is the difference between analysis that says “gold will fall” and analysis that says “gold will fall if X happens”. The second can be graded. The first cannot.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,230 | EGP 6,184 |
| $4,270 | EGP 6,243 |
| $4,302 (now) | EGP 6,290 |
| $4,320 (100-day average) | EGP 6,316 |
| $4,380 | EGP 6,404 |
| $4,420 | EGP 6,462 |
📍 Raw metal at the local conversion factor (1.462), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,541 | 200-day moving average — the ceiling |
| $4,432–4,445 | Resistance band |
| $4,401 | Friday’s high |
| $4,343 | Monday’s close |
| $4,320 | 100-day moving average — broken; now resistance |
| $4,300 | Floor of our weekly range — the number that decides the call |
| $4,273 | 55-day moving average |
| $4,235 | Fed-week low |
The average that was support is now resistance. While gold trades below $4,320 the pressure is the default case, and a daily close back above it would mean the break was false. Below, $4,300 is the number that decides whether our weekly call was right — settled on the Friday 25 September close.
Today, Tuesday: no significant US data, but three Fed speakers, which historically move this market more than any release.
5:05 PM — John Williams, President of the New York Fed, the most consequential
voice after the Chair.
5:20 PM — Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair.
8:00 PM — Tom Barkin, Richmond Fed.
The rest of the week: Wednesday, European activity surveys 10:00–11:00 AM and the US equivalents at 4:45 PM. Thursday, the Swiss National Bank decision at 10:30 AM, US jobless claims at 3:30 PM, and the Trump–Xi summit during the day. Friday, durable goods at 3:30 PM, final consumer sentiment at 5:00 PM, and the weekly close at midnight Cairo time — which is what our call is graded on.
Spot price, Monday’s close and the US 10-year yield from Trading Economics; Fed commentary and market drivers from FXStreet; the speaker schedule from the economic calendar; local prices from our own published price list, at the timestamp shown above.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.