Home › Gold forecasts › Friday 25 September 2026
Yesterday we ranked “chop below the floor” first at 40%, and gold closed Thursday at $4,275, right inside it. That is five correct calls out of five graded this week. Gold is at $4,277 this morning, and tonight’s close settles our weekly call.
Spot now $4,277 · Thursday’s close $4,275 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,240 ·
We published three scenarios: 40% chop below the floor ($4,250–$4,310), 35% a break of the neckline ($4,200–$4,250), and 25% reclaiming the floor ($4,310–$4,360). The close was $4,274.65 — inside the first.
This time the range was right and the ranking was right. After two days of getting the order wrong, we changed the weights yesterday and wrote down why. The neckline at $4,230 held, even though jobless claims came in at 197,000 — among the lowest readings this year — and yields stayed close to their highest since 2007.
And we say it as plainly as we say it when we are wrong: one day does not prove the weighting is fixed. We will keep watching it.
Record: 24 published · 20 correct · 95% (20 of 21 graded; today’s is still open). This week alone: 5 calls graded · 5 correct. How grading works →
The weekly call — the one that disagreed with a Kitco survey of 16 bullish analysts out of 16 — settles on tonight’s Friday 25 September close. The range we weighted at 45% is $4,300–$4,420.
Gold is at $4,277, about 23 dollars below the floor of our range. The week is down about $100 from last Friday’s close of $4,378 — the opposite direction to the one Wall Street called.
The rule is the same either way. If tonight closes above $4,300, we write that the weekly call was right. If it closes below, we write that we were right about direction against Wall Street and wrong about the bucket. The verdict goes up here tomorrow, Saturday morning.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,277 | +$2 on the day |
| Thursday’s close | $4,275 | inside our first scenario |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,131 | unchanged |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,537 | unchanged |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,240 | unchanged |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,348 | unchanged |
➖ 21K is unchanged at EGP 6,240. Our counter prices were last reset on Thursday at 8:00 PM, when the buy price moved to 6,150. The implied dollar rate inside our counter price is about 51.9, close to yesterday’s — so today the gram is following the ounce, not the currency. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
Covering the Friday 25 September session — the weekly close
🇪🇬 21K in Suez early next week: EGP 6,157 – 6,332, most likely EGP 6,201 – 6,274, assuming the currency holds.
✏️ On these same weights, the chance that our weekly call turns out right is the chance of the third scenario: 25%. We did not raise it to look right, and we did not lower it to look modest.
Since last Saturday we have said the weekly call contains two different questions: the direction (up or down) and the bucket (where exactly it closes).
Wall Street had one answer to the first question: up, sixteen out of sixteen. Gold fell by about $100. On that question the consensus was wrong.
We said gold would go sideways between $4,300 and $4,420. On that second question, only tonight can answer.
The difference matters to you personally. If you ask “will gold go up or down?”, that is only half the answer. The other half is “how far?” — and that is what makes the difference to a decision to buy or sell.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,220 | EGP 6,157 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,171 |
| $4,250 | EGP 6,201 |
| $4,277 (now) | EGP 6,240 |
| $4,300 (floor of our range) | EGP 6,274 |
| $4,340 | EGP 6,332 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.459), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,408 | 38.2% retracement |
| $4,320 | 50% retracement |
| $4,300 | Floor of our weekly range — the number that decides the call tonight |
| $4,275 | Thursday’s close |
| $4,231 | 61.8% retracement |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
Tonight the only number that matters is $4,300: above it our weekly call is right, below it we are wrong about the bucket. For next week, the number that matters is $4,230: a close below it opens the way to a deeper decline.
Friday, during the day — no major US data. The focus is on Fed speakers.
Friday, midnight Cairo time — the weekly close our call is
graded on.
Saturday 26 September, morning — we publish the verdict on the weekly call,
whichever way it lands, together with next week’s forecast.
Spot price, session closes, Treasury yields and October hike odds from Trading Economics; jobless claims from US News and InvestingLive; the Williams remark, technical levels and RSI from FXStreet; the Trump–Xi summit from Bloomberg and Business Standard; local prices from our own published price list, last reset at 8:00 PM on 24 September.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.