Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 5 October 2026
Gold closed last week at $4,140 and opened the new one slightly higher: the ounce is at $4,156 this morning, sitting almost exactly on the $4,150 line that separates the scenarios in our weekly call. This is the first of five days in grading that call, and there is no verdict before Friday’s close. One number matters today: ISM services at 5:00 PM Cairo time. And the weekend was full of Gulf news, all of it written up below, as we promised.
Spot now $4,156 · Friday’s close $4,140 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,140 ·
We published on Saturday: 40% the decline continues slowly ($4,030–$4,150), 30% $4,000 breaks ($3,900–$4,030), 30% a bounce ($4,150–$4,300). Gold is at $4,156 now, inside the third scenario, six dollars from the line.
If you want to grade it today, you cannot. The number that confirms the bounce scenario is a close above $4,150 with the 2-year yield below 4.7%, and the 2-year is at 4.80%. So even if the ounce closed Friday right here, the call would be right only “by chance”, and we would write it that way.
There is no daily call to grade today: Friday’s was graded on Saturday (correct by chance), and today’s is graded tomorrow morning on tonight’s close.
Record: 31 published · 26 correct · 90% (26 of 29 graded). With today’s report the published count becomes 32, with two calls open: today’s and the weekly. Saturday’s verdict and the weekly call → · How grading works →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,156 | +$16 on Friday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,017 | up from 7,005 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,432 | up from 6,421 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,140 | up EGP 10 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,262 | up from 5,254 |
📈 21K at EGP 6,140 (buy 6,070), from our counter reset this morning, up EGP 10 on Saturday’s figure. If it is reset again, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price is 52.52 (52.63 on Saturday); the gram is tracking the ounce, with the rate in its narrow 52.2–52.7 band. Since Friday’s close ($4,140) the ounce is up 0.4% and the gram 0.2%. Since 1 October the ounce is down 5.7% (Trading Economics’ monthly figure).
The upshot: geopolitical tension rose and oil did not respond. If Brent gets back above $105 the picture changes quickly; that is the number we are watching this week, not the count of strikes.
Covering the Monday 5 October session — New York close
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,043 – 6,265, most likely EGP 6,043 – 6,132, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.52.
✏️ Why rank continuation first when gold is up this morning? Because $16 after a $145 weekly fall is a breath, not a bounce, and because last week taught us: three times we ranked “calm” first and the trend carried on instead. But we are not writing 60% on a decline on a light data day either; 40% is an honest number for a market standing on the line.
The rule everyone knows: dollar up, gold down. This morning both are up together. Why? Because the dollar is rising because the euro fell (Spain), not because America got stronger. Gold only cares about the second kind: when the dollar rises because US yields rose, gold hurts; when it rises because another currency fell, gold can shrug.
What this means for you: when you hear “the dollar is up”, do not rush to judge gold. Ask: up why? If the answer is US yields, pay attention. If the answer is Europe, it is a different story.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $3,900 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 5,762 |
| $4,000 (the trend line) | EGP 5,910 |
| $4,030 | EGP 5,954 |
| $4,090 | EGP 6,043 |
| $4,137 (pivot support) | EGP 6,112 |
| $4,150 (the dividing line) | EGP 6,132 |
| $4,156 (now) | EGP 6,140 |
| $4,195 | EGP 6,198 |
| $4,240 | EGP 6,265 |
| $4,275 (100-day average) | EGP 6,316 |
| $4,300 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,353 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4775), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,328 | 50-day average |
| $4,275 | 100-day average |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,200 | The ceiling that has capped the market for four sessions |
| $4,195 | Ceiling of today’s second scenario |
| $4,150 | The dividing line in the weekly call, and the ceiling of today’s first scenario |
| $4,137 | Pivot support |
| $4,090 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $4,030 | Boundary of the weekly call’s second scenario |
| $4,000 | The rising trend line |
$4,150 is the number of the whole week. 70% of our weekly weight sits below it, and gold is $6 above it. Tonight’s close grades today’s call only; the weekly has no verdict before midnight on Friday.
Monday 5:00 PM — ISM services (expected 55.7).
Tuesday 4:05 PM Williams (New York Fed) · 5:45 PM Bowman ·
8:00 PM 3-year auction · 2:00 AM Logan.
Wednesday 8:00 PM — 10-year auction · 9:00 PM —
the FOMC minutes (September meeting).
Thursday 3:30 PM jobless claims (expected 195,000) · 8:00 PM 30-year auction.
Friday 5:00 PM Michigan consumer sentiment · midnight the weekly close
on which the weekly call is graded.
Spot price, Friday’s close, oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index, hike odds, the week’s calendar and the Yemen operation from Trading Economics; Iran’s rejection of the proposal, the Araghchi remark, the struck tanker, the oil minister’s resignation and the Houthi claims about Aramco from Fox News’ live coverage (3–5 October); technical levels (50, 100 and 200-day averages, $4,137 support, the $4,000 trend line, RSI) from FXStreet; the week-ahead outlook and Fed minutes context from investingLive; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 5 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.