Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 19 October 2026
Gold opens the week at $4,175, up $9 on Friday’s close and still capped under $4,200 — a close below it today would make fifteen consecutive sessions. The weekend was full: three tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the strait “remained closed” to anything without its permission, and the Houthis targeted Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea export terminal. And through all of it Brent fell 2.6% to $107, because the US energy secretary said Gulf flows were back to about 80% of pre-war levels and Trump closed a diesel deal with Russia. Day one of five in the new weekly call — the one where we ranked “the cap holds” first — and the ounce is sitting in its first box from the opening bell.
Spot now $4,175 · Friday’s close $4,166 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,290 ·
We published on Saturday: 40% the cap under the line holds ($4,080–$4,200), 35% fear breaks the line ($4,200–$4,330), 25% equities bounce and gold pays ($3,980–$4,080). The ounce is at $4,175 — inside the first scenario, the one we ranked first. The week’s move so far is +0.2%, so its condition (under 2%) is intact.
The second scenario’s condition was Brent at $108 or above (1.7% away at the time) or the dollar index at 100.7 or below (1.1% away). Today Brent fell to $107 and the dollar rose to 102 — both moved away from the threshold, not towards it. The first sight of correction five doing its job: when a threshold sits 1% from the price, one day’s move does not turn it into a coin toss in either direction.
No daily call is graded today: Friday’s was graded on Saturday (right by chance), and today’s is graded tomorrow morning. The weekly verdict is at midnight on Friday.
Record: 44 published · 41 graded · 38 correct · 93% — two calls open: today’s and the weekly. Saturday’s verdict and the new weekly call → · How grading works →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,175 | +$9 on Friday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,188 | +46 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,589 | +42 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,290 | +40 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,391 | +34 |
➡️ 21K up 40 pounds to EGP 6,290 (buy 6,230), from our counter reset today. If it is reset again, the live number is at today’s prices. 📍 The ounce rose 0.2% and the gram rose 0.64%, so the dollar rate implied in our counter price moved from 53.32 to 53.56. The gram ran a little ahead of the ounce today, which usually settles over a day or two: either the ounce comes up to it or the gram waits. The same rule we wrote last week.
Covering the Monday 19 October session — New York close · no scheduled release, so the driver’s level at the close is a condition, and every threshold carries its distance from the price (correction five)
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,192 – 6,388, most likely EGP 6,252 – 6,328, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 53.56.
✏️ Why is the quiet scenario first? Because that is what the market has actually done for fourteen sessions, and that was last week’s lesson, paid for in full: the order is built on observed behaviour, not on logic.
On Saturday we wrote correction five: a confirming threshold has to sit at least 1% from the price. And in the weekly call we put Brent’s threshold at $108 (1.7% away) and the dollar’s at 100.7 (1.1% away).
Today Brent fell 2.6% and the dollar rose 0.2%. Both moved away from the threshold. Had we put the line next to the price as we did last week — Brent at $110, say — today’s condition would have “broken” and we would be talking about a hair again. Now there is no hair: the threshold is distant, and the market has to actually move to confirm or deny it.
That is the difference between a condition that tests a reading and one that tests luck. And the difference is not in the number itself — it is in the distance.
And what this means for you: when someone tells you “if gold breaks $4,180 it is going up” while gold sits at $4,175, that is not analysis, it is a description of the moment. Ask: and after $4,180, what? If there is no distant threshold, there is no reading.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $3,980 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 5,996 |
| $4,080 (the weekly dividing line) | EGP 6,147 |
| $4,110 (floor of today’s third scenario) | EGP 6,192 |
| $4,150 (support) | EGP 6,252 |
| $4,166 (Friday’s close) | EGP 6,277 |
| $4,175 (now) | EGP 6,290 |
| $4,200 (the line) | EGP 6,328 |
| $4,240 (ceiling of the second scenario) | EGP 6,388 |
| $4,330 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,524 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.5066), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,330 | Ceiling of the weekly call |
| $4,240 | Ceiling of today’s second scenario |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,200 | The line gold has been capped under since 29 September |
| $4,175 | The price now |
| $4,166 | Friday’s close |
| $4,150 | Support and the floor of the first scenario |
| $4,110 | Floor of today’s third scenario |
| $4,080 | The dividing line in the weekly call |
| $3,980 | Floor of the weekly call |
Today: the yield at 5.01% or below means gold above the line. The dollar at 103.1 or above, or Brent at $105.9 or below, means gold under $4,150. In between is quiet day number fifteen. And all week there is no Fed — only Brent and equities.
Monday 4:00 PM: the NAHB housing index (31 expected after 32) — a light print.
Tuesday 2:30 PM: September building permits and housing starts · 4:00 PM: pending
home sales.
Wednesday 4:30 PM: US crude inventories — last week −8.56 million barrels, the biggest draw
since February, now a number that matters to gold through oil.
Friday: the final University of Michigan survey with five-year inflation expectations (3.4% expected)
— the one number all week that can move the yield · midnight, the weekly close.
The Fed blackout all week · the rate meeting on 27–28 October.
Spot price, Friday’s close ($4,166.39), Treasury yields, oil ($107.04 after $109.86), the dollar (102.02 after 101.84), the weekend events in Hormuz, at Yanbu and on the Yemeni border, the US energy secretary’s remarks, the Russian diesel deal, the Ukrainian drone strikes and the St Petersburg fire, the French protests, the Warsh remarks, hike odds and the week’s calendar from Trading Economics; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 19 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.