Home › Gold forecasts › Thursday 22 October 2026
Gold closed Wednesday at $4,141, inside the scenario we ranked second (support holds for a sixth session), and its confirming number was met: official crude inventories showed a draw of 3.06 million barrels, inside the “between 1 and 4” band. So: right for the reason, wrong on the order — for the second day running we ranked the break first and support held. Then this morning the break happened: the ounce is at $4,085 (−1.35%), below $4,100 for the first time since 15 October, after a drone strike on Aramco’s Shaybah field, Brent back above $110 and US equities lower before the open. The break we forecast for Wednesday arrived on Thursday — and for a different reason than the one we wrote. And the gram? The trade dollar rose to 54.73 with today’s counter reset, so 21K rose 10 pounds to EGP 6,290 while the ounce fell. The third time this week.
Spot now $4,085 · Trade dollar EGP 54.73 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,290 ·
We published: 40% a big draw, Brent back to its peak and gold breaks $4,100 ($4,060–$4,110), 35% support holds for a sixth session ($4,110–$4,160), 25% an inventory surprise and gold recovers ($4,160–$4,200). The close was $4,141.10 — inside the second, in the exact middle of the box. Right range, wrong order.
The second box’s confirming number was “a draw between 1 and 4 million barrels, with a close between $4,110 and $4,160”. The official figure: a draw of 3.06 million (0.8 expected; the industry figure was 4.93). So inventories drew more than expected but less than the API number, Brent closed at $108.8 (−1.3%) instead of returning to its peak, the yield slipped to 5.13%, and gold rose $16. Under correction four (a release day: the release value plus the close): right for the reason.
The order was wrong for the second day running — and with the same mistake. We ranked the break first twice because “oil has a reason to rise”. Twice, oil did not rise in the session. The rule we wrote yesterday says: “if it loses again, the order flips”. That is what we do today — except that, by coincidence, the picture flipped on its own: this morning the ounce broke $4,100 for real, hours after the New York close. The break was right and the timing was wrong, and in grading, timing is everything.
One important point in the verdict: we do not grade on what happened this morning. The box is graded on Wednesday’s New York close ($4,141), and that is inside the second. What came after is graded tomorrow.
Record: 47 published · 44 graded · 41 correct · 93% (the weekly call and today’s are still open). Wednesday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,085 the ounce is still inside the first scenario (40% the cap holds, $4,080–$4,200) — but only $5 above its floor, with the week’s move at −1.9%, its condition (under 2%) on the edge. The third scenario (25%, below $4,080) needs the yield at 5.22% or above; the yield is 5.08% and moving the other way — so if the ounce closes Friday below $4,080 without the yield, the third is “right by luck” and we will say so. The second (35%, above $4,200) is now $115 away. The verdict is at midnight on Friday; Saturday brings the full weekly table and next week’s call.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,085 | −$56 on Wednesday’s close ($4,141) |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 54.73 | +0.58 on yesterday (54.15) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,188 | +11 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,290 | +10 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,391 | +9 |
➡️ 21K up 10 pounds to EGP 6,290 (buy 6,240) — from today’s counter reset (11:00 AM, with the ounce at $4,085). From yesterday’s reset to today’s: the ounce fell $37 (worth about −56 pounds on the gram) and the trade dollar rose 0.58 (worth about +67 pounds). Net +10. The official price is at today’s prices. 💱 The implied trade dollar is 54.73 — up 0.58 on yesterday, the biggest daily jump this week. Our last bank-dollar reference: above EGP 54 (Al-Masry Al-Youm, close of 20 October) — so the trade premium has widened to about 1%, which is what happens when the trade prices the dollar ahead of the banks. 📉 Since Friday’s close ($4,166): the ounce is down 1.9%, the trade dollar up from 53.32 to 54.73 (+2.6%), and the gram up 0.6% (from 6,250 to 6,290). All week, the dollar has beaten the ounce in the gram.
Day two of tracking three numbers: the ounce, the yield, and the trade dollar (= gram price × 31.1035 ÷ ounce ÷ 0.875). From today we add one line that tells us where the dollar is heading before it moves: dollar pressure — net foreign and Arab trading in Treasury bills and bonds, from the Egyptian Exchange’s daily bulletin. That hot money is the largest dollar that actually moves in the market, and when it leaves, it buys dollars on the way out.
The two-way table — raw 21K per gram at each ounce and each dollar:
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 53.5 | 54.5 | 55.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,030 (floor of today’s first scenario) | 6,065 | 6,179 | 6,292 |
| $4,080 (the weekly floor) | 6,141 | 6,255 | 6,370 |
| $4,085 (now) | 6,148 | 6,263 | 6,378 |
| $4,130 (the dividing line) | 6,216 | 6,332 | 6,448 |
| $4,180 (ceiling of today’s scenarios) | 6,291 | 6,409 | 6,526 |
📍 Read it like this: from yesterday’s reset to today’s, the ounce fell $37 (about −56 pounds on the table) and the dollar rose 0.58 (about +67). Net +10 — exactly the difference between 6,280 and 6,290. The ounce fell and the gram rose, for the third time this week. And if the dollar carries on to 55.5, even a fall in the ounce to $4,030 does not reach the gram. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Thursday 22 October session — New York close · no major scheduled release, so the condition sits on the drivers under correction five (the distance is printed beside each number)
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 54.73: EGP 6,205 – 6,436, most likely 6,205 – 6,282
Up one pound (55.73): EGP 6,318 – 6,553, most likely 6,318 – 6,397
Down one pound (53.73): EGP 6,091 – 6,318, most likely 6,091 – 6,167
With dollar pressure reading “outflow” three days running, the second assumption (up a pound) is closer than the third.
✏️ The break is first for a third time — but this time not because “oil has a reason”; because the ounce actually broke this morning and the market is selling everything. The rule follows what is happening: five sessions of decline plus a morning break equals continuation first. If the market reverses this morning’s move and closes above $4,080, we will have got the order wrong a third time, and we will say so.
This week we described two chains: the rate chain (oil up → inflation → yield up → gold down) and the fear chain (war or collapse → people run to gold → gold up). And we gave the tell that separates them: look at equities. If they are collapsing, it is fear and gold rises.
This morning equities are down, the yield is down and gold is down. By our rule that is impossible. But it happened, and it has happened many times before (2008, March 2020): when the losses are in equities themselves — not in a war — funds sell gold to cover equity losses. Gold here is not a refuge; it is a wallet being drawn on. That is the liquidity chain, and its signature is equities down, yield down and gold down at the same time.
And why write this instead of staying quiet? Because “look at equities” is still right in the war case, but it has an exception: when the selling is about equity valuations rather than geography, gold is sold with them first. And the exception shows up in the yield: in real fear the yield falls and gold rises; in a liquidity squeeze the yield falls and gold falls. The yield is what separates them.
And what this means for you: if you see a headline that “Wall Street is collapsing”, do not assume gold will rise. Look at gold itself in the first hour: if it is falling with equities, the market is selling everything, and that fall ends when the selling ends — not when the headline ends. And your gram in Egypt answers to the dollar before all of this: dollar pressure reading “outflow” means a fall in the ounce may not reach the gram in full.
| $4,330 | Ceiling of the weekly call |
| $4,200 | The line |
| $4,180 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,141 | Wednesday’s close |
| $4,130 | The line between the rebound and the recovery |
| $4,100 | Support that held for six sessions and broke this morning |
| $4,085 | The price now |
| $4,080 | Floor of the weekly first box — $5 away |
| $4,030 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $3,980 | Floor of the weekly call |
| EGP 55 | Trade dollar — above it a fall in the ounce does not reach the gram |
| EGP 53.3 | Trade dollar — last week’s floor |
Today: the S&P 500 at 7,600 or below (or Brent at $112 or above) means gold below $4,080. Brent at $108.8 or below means gold back in $4,080–$4,130. The yield at 5.02 or below means gold above $4,130. And the gram answers to the dollar before the ounce — and dollar pressure reads outflow.
Thursday 2:30 PM: jobless claims (200K expected) · 4:00 PM: the leading index ·
4:30 PM: the New York open — the most important hour of the day: does gold keep falling with equities, or
separate from them?
Friday 3:45 PM: flash PMIs · 4:00 PM: the final University of Michigan survey with
five-year inflation expectations (3.5% expected) · midnight: the weekly close and the verdict on the weekly
call.
Saturday: the full weekly table (five days × three columns: range, order, number) and next week’s call
— with the trade dollar inside it.
The Fed blackout continues · the rate meeting on 27–28 October.
Spot price, Wednesday’s close ($4,141.10), Treasury yields (Wednesday’s close 5.13% and 5.08% today), oil (Wednesday’s close $108.8 and $110–$112 today), the dollar (101.57), equities (Wednesday’s close 7,757), official crude inventories (−3.06 million) and the week’s calendar from Trading Economics; the Shaybah strike and the Iran headlines from Trading Economics and Kitco; foreign and Arab trading in government debt ($376.5 million on Wednesday, $505 million on Monday) from Egyptian Exchange data via Hapi Journal, Cairo 24 and Khas An Masr; the bank dollar (above EGP 54 at the close of 20 October) from Al-Masry Al-Youm; the implied trade dollar computed from our counter price and the ounce at the time of the reset; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 22 October at 11:00 AM.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.