Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 2 November 2026
Gold opened the week with a bounce: the ounce at $3,901 (+$25 on Friday’s close, +0.65%) after touching $3,920 in the morning. The first reason is oil: Brent is down about 3% to $108.5 on talk of mediation in Qatar and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, so inflation fears and December hike bets eased a little. Silver is back above $50. US equity futures are up and the yield is down — the liquidity signature is not showing today. And in Egypt the picture flipped exactly as we warned on Saturday: the ounce rose $25 and the gram fell 40 pounds to EGP 6,140, because the trade dollar fell to 55.95 and caught up with the banks. Today at 5:00 PM Cairo the ISM manufacturing index; tomorrow the elections.
Spot now $3,901 · Trade dollar EGP 55.95 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,140 ·
No daily call is graded today: Friday’s call was graded on Saturday (wrong — the close of $3,875.84 was $34 below the lowest box), and last week’s weekly call was graded right by luck, with the order right for the first time in four weeks. The full table is in Saturday’s report.
The new weekly call (published Saturday 31 October, graded Friday 6 November): 35% the liquidation runs on ($3,700–$3,850) · 30% a low being built ($3,850–$3,950) · 25% a bounce ($3,950–$4,100) · 10% the tail box (below $3,700). The ounce is now $3,901 — inside the second box, $49 from the upper line and $51 from the lower.
Record: 56 published · 53 graded · 48 correct · 91% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). Saturday’s verdict and the advisory council → · How grading works →
Three heavy events this week, and the weekly call is built on them: Tuesday the US elections plus the Reserve Bank of Australia (a hike to 4.85% expected) · Thursday the Bank of England (a hike to 4% expected) · Friday the jobs report. And on the jobs report, note this: the consensus has moved. On Saturday it was 65,000; today Trading Economics shows 40,000 (prior 29,000). So the third weekly box’s condition (“jobs at 40,000 or fewer”) has become the consensus itself — and when the expected number prints as expected, that is not a surprise (Wednesday 28 October’s lesson). We will record this in Friday’s verdict: if jobs print exactly 40,000, the condition is met to the letter, but on a number that had become expected. We say it now, before the number, not after.
Last Friday gold fell $145 in a day. Today it bounces $25. This looks like an oil bounce, not a gold bounce: Brent −3% is what pulled the yield and the dollar a little lower. If oil turns back up on news from Hormuz, the bounce goes with it.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $3,901 | +$25 on Friday’s close (+0.65%) · high 3,920 · low 3,879 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 55.95 | −0.73 since Saturday (56.68) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,017 | |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,140 | −40 since Saturday |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,262 |
➡️ 21K at EGP 6,140 — from today’s counter update (1:00 PM), down 40 pounds
from Saturday (6,180) on a day the ounce rose $25. In detail: the ounce’s rise is worth about +39 pounds, and the trade
dollar’s 73-piastre fall about −80. The official price is at today’s prices.
💱 The premium closed: on Saturday we wrote that the implied trade dollar was 56.68 against banks at 55.74 (the Souq El
Dahab app) — a 1.7% premium — and said “a premium above 1% is a warning: either the banks rise again, or the gram falls as the
trade catches up with the bank”. The second happened: the trade fell to 55.95, and the premium is now about
The Souq El Dahab app today (3:15 PM): a bank-dollar average of 55.43 — down 31 piastres from Saturday (55.74) — a market trade dollar of 55.66, a market 21K average of EGP 6,130 (selling), and the ounce on screen at $3,914. So our premium is about 0.9% (55.95 against 55.43) and the market’s 0.4%. The banks are still easing and the trade is chasing them. So the gram now reflects the ounce without the dollar cushion it had last week — and if the banks keep easing, the cushion turns into a weight.
📊 Egypt on Sunday: the Exchange fell 1.7% (EGX30 48,744), with foreign and Arab institutions small net
sellers (about EGP 42 and 44 million). The Treasury-bill auction: EGP 110 billion sought, 74 billion accepted, the 91-day yield up to
25.00% (+68 basis points) and the 273-day to 26.36% — Hapi Journal links it to the central bank’s rate rise last week. The
higher yield is what brings hot money back, and it explains the banks easing. Sunday’s foreign flows in bills were not published by
the time of writing — we will carry them tomorrow.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 79 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 110 pounds. Today the dollar fell 73 piastres and took 80 off the gram; the ounce rose $25 and gave back 39. The dollar weighed more — but in the opposite direction to last week.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 55 | 56 | 57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,800 (floor of today’s scenarios) | 5,879 | 5,986 | 6,093 |
| $3,850 (the first weekly dividing line) | 5,956 | 6,065 | 6,173 |
| $3,901 (the price now) | 6,035 | 6,145 | 6,255 |
| $3,950 (the second weekly dividing line) | 6,111 | 6,222 | 6,333 |
| $4,000 (the psychological number) | 6,189 | 6,301 | 6,414 |
📍 Our gram at 6,140 is roughly the “3,901 × 56” cell (the implied dollar is 55.95). If gold returns to $3,850 with the dollar at 56, the gram is about 6,065 — down 75. If gold rises to $3,950 and the dollar eases to 55, the gram is 6,111 — down 29 despite the ounce rising $49. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Monday 2 November session — New York close · a scheduled-release day (ISM manufacturing at 10:00 AM ET, 54.7 expected, prior 54.5), so under correction four the condition is the index value plus the close · the liquidity signature is not showing, so the boxes are the normal width ($50–$60)
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: the market is waiting for a big event tomorrow (the elections), and today’s bounce comes from oil, not from gold itself. Our rule: when the market is waiting for a big event, calm first.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Tuesday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 55.95: EGP 5,981 – 6,248, most likely 6,075 – 6,154
Up one pound (56.95): EGP 6,088 – 6,360, most likely 6,184 – 6,264
Down one pound (54.95): EGP 5,874 – 6,137, most likely 5,966 – 6,044
The banks are easing (55.43 today) and our premium is still 0.9%, so the first or the third assumption — the dollar has not finished its move.
✏️ Calm is first because the elections are tomorrow, and the downside box is $60 wide because Friday’s low ($3,870) is close and the market is still bruised. If the market bounces further today, we say so tomorrow.
Oil: Brent $108.5 (−2.8%) after a weekend with an Iranian delegation in Qatar, Iran’s foreign minister saying the strait
could reopen “within two days” if the US accepts its conditions, and Trump saying the talks are “going fine” but the Iranians
are “not very reliable”. Even so, a vessel was hit in the strait on Sunday. The news leaves the door open both ways. Goldman raised its
year-end Brent forecast to $105 and puts the “war premium” at about $27.
Yield and dollar: the 10-year at 4.93% (a seven-week low), the dollar index 101.7 (−0.2%). A December hike is still priced at
about 73–75%.
Equities: on Friday the S&P 500 −1.8% and the Nasdaq −2.9%; today futures +0.4%. Commerzbank (via Reuters) calls
Friday’s fall “forced selling” by funds on margin calls and expects a recovery. Saxo (Ole Hansen) calls the near-term environment
“difficult”. UBS still sees $5,000 next year.
Technical levels (FX Leaders and Trading Central): resistance $3,920 (touched this morning) and $3,950–$3,970 · support
$3,870–$3,885 (Friday’s low), then $3,830–$3,850 and $3,780–$3,800. RSI about 32 — still oversold.
Silver: $50.35 (+3%) — back above $50 after breaking it on Friday.
On Saturday we wrote one sentence: “a premium above 1% is a warning: either the banks rise again, or the gram falls as the trade catches up with the bank”. It did not take two days: the ounce rose $25 (the gram should have risen 39), and the gram fell 40, because the trade dollar fell from 56.68 to 55.95 and caught the bank.
And the lesson for you: last week the dollar was a “cushion” softening the ounce’s fall. That cushion is gone. From today the gram feels the ounce’s move in full: if gold falls $50, the gram falls about 79 — with nothing giving any of it back. If it rises $50, the gram rises 79. That makes the ounce forecast matter more to the gram than at any point in the past month.
| $4,000 | The psychological number |
| $3,970 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $3,950 | The second weekly dividing line |
| $3,920 | Resistance (today’s high) |
| $3,910 | The line between the hold and the bounce |
| $3,901 | The price now |
| $3,876 | Friday’s close |
| $3,870 | Friday’s low and support |
| $3,860 | The line between the hold and the fall |
| $3,850 | The first weekly dividing line |
| $3,830 | Support |
| $3,800 | Floor of today’s scenarios |
| $3,700 | The tail-box line |
| EGP 55.95 | The implied trade dollar (easing) |
| EGP 55.43 | The bank-dollar average (easing) — a premium of 0.9%; the market trade dollar 55.66 |
Today at 10:00 AM ET: ISM between 54.1 and 55.4 means $3,860–$3,910. 54.0 or below, or Brent at 107, means above $3,910. 55.5 or above, or Brent at 110, means below $3,860. And the gram has no dollar cushion now: every $50 on the ounce is 79 pounds.
Monday 4:45 PM: the final S&P Global manufacturing PMI · 5:00 PM: ISM manufacturing (54.7
expected) with its prices (78 expected) and employment components · 6:15 PM: Goolsbee speaks · midnight: the
New York close and the verdict on today’s call.
Tuesday 5:30 AM: the Reserve Bank of Australia (a hike to 4.85% expected) · all day: the US elections (435 House
seats and 35 Senate seats), results in the early hours of Wednesday · 5:00 PM: JOLTS job openings (7.06 million expected).
Rest of the week: Wednesday ADP (80,000 expected) and ISM services · Thursday the Bank of England at 2:00 PM (a hike to 4%
expected), Hammack and Barkin · Friday 3:30 PM: the jobs report (40,000 expected, unemployment 4.2%) and at midnight the verdict
on the weekly call.
Spot gold ($3,900.30 at 6:10 AM ET) and the day’s high and low from Kitco; spot ($3,903), the yield, the dollar, today’s and the week’s calendar, the jobs consensus (40,000) and silver from Trading Economics; Brent ($108.5, −2.8%), the Qatar and Hormuz news and Goldman from Euronews and The National (2 November); Reuters (via Business Recorder, 2 November) for the Asian-session price, December hike odds (73%) and the Saxo comment; Commerzbank and UBS from Reuters and CNBC via InvestingLive and FinanceFeeds (2 November); technical levels from FX Leaders and Trading Central (via Mitrade); Friday’s close ($3,875.84) from Trading Economics. Egypt: Sunday’s Exchange session (the index and foreign and Arab trading) from Youm7 citing Exchange data; the bill auction (EGP 74 billion, 25.00%) from Hapi Journal, 1 November; the bank-dollar average (55.43), the market trade dollar (55.66), the market 21K average (6,130) and the on-screen ounce ($3,914.20) from the Souq El Dahab app, 2 November, 3:15 PM; the implied trade dollar (55.95) computed from our counter price and the ounce; counter prices from our own published price list, updated 2 November at 1:00 PM. Not found: Sunday’s foreign flows in bills, and Kitco’s morning report (not yet out at the time of writing).
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.