Why this page exists
A forecast that disagrees with the market is worth nothing unless the disagreement is written down in a form that can be checked later. Three things make it checkable: the other side must be named and cited, our side must be dated and unedited, and the condition that decides between them must be fixed before the outcome.
Anything short of that is a story told afterwards. This page holds the record to the same standard we would expect of a sourced argument anywhere else: primary citation, explicit scope, and a stated limit on what the source supports.
Case 1 — September 2026: a unanimous street, and us
The claim we disagreed with
Kitco’s weekly gold survey, published 18 September 2026, returned 16 of 16 Wall Street analysts bullish for the week ahead — no neutral votes and no bearish votes. The accompanying retail poll drew 220 votes: 127 bullish (58%), 52 bearish (24%), 41 neutral (19%).
Source: Kitco News, “Wall Street goes full bull on gold price after post-hike gains…”, 18 September 2026.
Our claim
Published the same weekend, before the week opened, on our own dated page: gold most likely range-bound between $4,300 and $4,420, weighted 45%; continued rally to $4,420–$4,540 weighted 35%; pullback to $4,200–$4,300 weighted 20%.
The disagreement is narrower than it looks, and we said so at the time: we did not argue gold would fall. We argued the advance needed a pause first, because speculative positioning sat near the top of its historical range and the prior week’s move had the signature of short covering rather than new buying.
Source: our own report of 20 September 2026, unedited since publication.
The evidence — who said what
Kitco named twelve participants and published their views. These are those twelve, verbatim in substance, with affiliations as given in the article.
| Analyst | Affiliation | Published view |
|---|---|---|
| Marc Chandler | Managing Director, Bannockburn Global Forex | Gold, basis the spot market, rose for the first time in four weeks |
| Adam Button | Head of Currency Strategy, investingLive | Gold buyers appeared after a hawkish FOMC. That was impressive. |
| Darin Newsom | Senior Market Analyst, Barchart.com | Dec gold’s short-term trend on its daily close only chart has turned up |
| Mark Leibovit | Publisher, VR Metals/Resource Letter | Cycle low. — recommendation: BUY |
| Adrian Day | President, Adrian Day Asset Management | A broken treasury market, along with persistent inflation, is positive |
| Rich Checkan | President & COO, Asset Strategies International | Gold is much more attractive than a negative 4% real return. Gold moves higher |
| James Stanley | Senior Market Strategist, Forex.com | Buyers put in a good show this week and at this point the weekly candle is green |
| Sean Lusk | Co-Director of Commercial Hedging, Walsh Trading | There’s enough data here that’s positive, so even if they do another hike… |
| Colin Cieszynski | Chief Market Strategist, SIA Wealth Management | Gold has probably bottomed out for the near term, and could trend a little upwards |
| Alex Kuptsikevich | Senior Market Analyst, FxPro | The price of an ounce of gold could reach $4,500 as early as next week |
| CPM Group | Research analysts (individually unnamed) | Buy · target $4,590 · stop loss $4,270 |
| Michael Moor | Founder, Moor Analytics | HIGHER, unless we fail below the formation mentioned |
What this source does not contain. Kitco publishes the vote count and quotes only those participants who agree to be named. The article identifies twelve; the remaining four of the sixteen voted without attribution. We are not able to name them, and we do not present a list of sixteen. This limit belongs to the survey’s method, not to our reporting of it.
Summary card
The same record as a single image, for circulation. Arabic.
Settlement criterion, fixed in advance
Settled on the New York close of Friday 25 September 2026, on the spot price, never intraday.
- Our call stands if the close falls between $4,300 and $4,420.
- Their call stands if the close is above $4,420, and partially if it closes between $4,420 and $4,540 — the range we ourselves weighted at 35%, so a close there is a point to them and not a defeat for us.
- Both of us were wrong if the close is below $4,300: we would have been right about direction against a unanimous street and wrong about the bucket, which we count as a miss.
Status on 22 September 2026: gold at $4,302, two dollars above the floor of our range. Open.
Outcome
To be recorded after the close of Friday 25 September 2026. This paragraph will be replaced by the result and the closing price, and nothing above it will be edited.
A note on the other side
The analysts listed above publish under their own names. That is to their credit, not against it — naming yourself is what makes a view answerable at all, and it is the same standard we hold ourselves to. Several of them may well be proved right this week.
This page is not a scoreboard against individuals. It is a record of a methodological disagreement, kept so that neither side can be re-described after the fact.
Citations
Kitco News, “Wall Street goes full bull on gold price after post-hike gains, Main Street bolsters bullish majority as gold holds $4,300”, weekly gold survey, 18 September 2026. Retrieved 22 September 2026. kitco.com
Ahmed Aaref Jewelry, Gold forecast — 20 September 2026 (Arabic edition, primary), published 20 September 2026, unedited. aarefjewelry.net
Spot prices and session closes: Trading Economics, retrieved 22 September 2026.