Gold Price Forecast — Monday 31 August 2026

✅ Partly correct

Grading Sunday’s call — four of five items, 80% accuracy

Direction — correct. Range-bound with a downward lean, as written. Range — correct. Price inside $4,430–$4,530. Rally ceiling — correct. We said it would not get back above $4,527; the high was $4,472. Local price — correct. 21K at EGP 6,330, the middle of the range we gave.

The item we got wrong: we wrote that Monday would be a session without a catalyst and that the movement would be technical. A catalyst appeared — US forces struck Iranian missile platforms preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,444	−0.2% today
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,330	from 6,325

21K sits in the middle of the range published the day before.

The lesson worth keeping

Military escalation is supposed to lift gold as a haven. The opposite happened. The strike lifted crude (Brent +1.94% to $89.81). Costlier oil means higher inflation, which means more pressure on the Fed to raise, which means pressure on gold.
Hike odds held at 57%, unchanged since Friday. That stability is itself a signal: the market had finished digesting the shock and was not pricing further escalation.
Negative signal: the dollar fell 0.16% and gold fell with it. Gold normally rises when the dollar falls; when it does not, there is internal weakness in demand.
Positive signal: silver rose 1.37% to $67.06 on the same day gold fell. That divergence supports the reading that this is a local shake-out, not a trend reversal.

Not every war headline lifts gold. Look at the channel the news travels through — if it runs through oil and inflation, it can work against gold rather than for it.

For all of that, gold was heading for a gain above 10% in August, its strongest month since 1999. The larger picture was still upward; what we were in was a correction inside it.

🎯 Our forecast for the Tuesday session

Covering the Tuesday 1 September session

100%Range-bound with a downward lean — below $4,527

The 200-day moving average is the line between a correction and a reversal, and nothing on the calendar before Friday’s payrolls report is big enough to move it

🇪🇬 21K in Suez at EGP 6,330 and expected to track the ounce, assuming the currency holds.

Levels that change the picture

$4,527

200-day moving average. Above it, the uptrend resumes; below it, the correction continues

This single level governed the whole week.

Sources and method

Trading Economics · Investing.com · CME FedWatch · energy market data.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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