Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 7 September 2026
Gold closed the week almost where it started, after a low of $4,283 and a high of $4,511. The condition we had written down worked; the ranking around it did not.
Spot $4,432 · Friday’s close, −0.9% · 21K in Suez EGP 6,320 ·
On Friday morning we wrote: if payrolls come in stronger than expected, the dollar and yields rebound and drag gold to a deeper correction toward $4,400 and possibly $4,300. The number came in at 162,000 against 56,000 expected, and gold fell within minutes to $4,365.57 — below $4,400, as described.
The bearish scenario’s range was $4,380–$4,430, and gold spent most of the session inside it, closing the week at $4,432, on its upper edge. The 200-day average at $4,528 that we set as the ceiling was not broken — the high was $4,511.
The ranking: we placed that bearish scenario third at 27% and consolidation first at 38%. The payrolls number beat every forecast — the strongest since March — and the market took the scenario we had ranked last.
| Price | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,432 | Friday’s close, −0.9% |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,223 | — |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,320 | — |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,417 | — |
Friday 4 September close. Week low $4,283, week high $4,511. Published Sunday evening, before the week opened.
The lesson from the whole week: levels are the strongest tool we have. $4,527, $4,300, $4,400, $4,460, $4,369 — every one of them worked. From this week onward the map is the foundation and the scenarios are built on top of it.
Covering the Monday 7 September session, US Labor Day
🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez: EGP 6,204 – 6,418, most likely EGP 6,276 – 6,361, at an implied rate of EGP 50.7.
Marc Chandler of Bannockburn: momentum is weak, and a break of $4,280 opens the road to $4,200. Adrian Day: a range without direction until the Fed decides. Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies: payrolls took the wind out of gold today, but there is wind coming.
When the analysts are this split, the levels matter more than the opinions.
| $4,575 | Target if $4,535 breaks on a close |
| $4,535 | 200-day average — the line between correction and reversal |
| $4,500 | The psychological barrier |
| $4,460 | First resistance |
| $4,432 | Friday’s close |
| $4,400 | Near defence line |
| $4,350 | 100-day average — first real support |
| $4,283 | Last week’s low — below it on a close, the target is $4,200 |
| $4,240 | 50-day average |
Friday’s CPI was the decider: core below 0.2% monthly would take hike odds down and gold toward $4,535 and above; core at 0.2% or more would confirm the hike and send gold toward $4,300.
Kitco · FXStreet · CME FedWatch · BLS · OCBC · TD Securities · Egyptian counter prices.
This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.