Home › Gold forecasts › Friday 4 September 2026
Our highest-weighted scenario happened exactly. The driver we named for it did not. Both are recorded, because getting the right answer for the wrong reason is still a thing worth knowing.
Spot $4,475 · +0.04% today · 21K in Suez EGP 6,320 ·
We weighted continued rally toward $4,460–$4,500 at 40%, and that is what happened: gold closed Thursday near $4,473–$4,475, inside the range. The critical level we named — a close above $4,400 — was confirmed and did open the road higher.
But we expected the driver to be the ISM and jobless claims data. The real driver turned out to be remarks from Fed officials Waller and Williams, dovish enough to take September hike odds from 66% to 50%. The direction was right; the immediate cause was not the one we weighted.
| Price | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,475 | +0.04% today |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,222 | — |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,620 | — |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,320 | buy 6,270 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,417 | — |
Approaching $4,500, the highest in more than three weeks, hours before the US payrolls report.
The lesson: hike probabilities are not a fixed number. They are market pricing that moves with every remark from any Fed official, with no decision taken at all. Governor Christopher Waller saying he would prefer to hold if inflation kept easing was enough on its own to move the market sixteen points in two days. Follow what Fed members say, not just the meeting calendar — a sentence can move the market as much as the decision.
Covering the Friday 4 September session, after the US payrolls report
🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez: EGP 6,185 – 6,396, most likely EGP 6,283 – 6,340, at an implied rate of EGP 50.2.
Adding Thursday’s correct call: of 17 measurable items published over five days, 12 came through (71%) and five did not — most of the misses in naming the immediate cause of a move rather than the direction of the price.
The point is not a perfect percentage. The point is that the forecast is published before the event and graded afterwards, right or wrong.
| $4,528 | 200-day moving average — the upside line |
| $4,490 | The level payrolls would have to clear |
| $4,400 | Support |
A payrolls number weaker than 56,000 would confirm the Fed pausing and push gold through $4,489 and on to the 200-day average. A stronger number would lift the dollar and yields and drag gold toward $4,400 and possibly $4,300.
Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · FXStreet · Egyptian counter prices · Forbes and CNBC on Fed probabilities.
This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.