Gold Price Forecast — Wednesday 9 September 2026

✅ Partly correct

Grading Tuesday’s call — the close was inside our range, but today’s direction was the one we ranked last

We weighted consolidation in a lower range of $4,350–$4,400 at 40%, our highest weight, and gold closed Tuesday at $4,392 — inside it. We also said that breaking $4,400 made the 100-day average at $4,350 the real support, and the price did touch $4,355–$4,360 during the session before turning.

The scenario we put at the bottom of the ranking — 25%, recovery above $4,400 toward $4,460 — is the one that started working today. Gold rebounded hard through $4,400 to $4,409 (+1.2%). We weighted the wrong direction for today’s move.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,409	+1.2% today
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,190	—
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,590	—
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,290	buy 6,240
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,390	—

Reclaimed $4,400 after two weak sessions, helped by the dollar falling against the yen.

What sat behind it

The dollar index fell to 98.68, mainly because of a notably strong Japanese yen that month.
The 10-year yield near flat at 4.80% — no real change.
Brent at $99.55 (+1.7%) and WTI at $94.17, still climbing on Middle East tension.
Silver at $66.92 (+1.8%), moving with gold.
Hike odds for 16 September still around 58–59%, essentially unchanged — nothing new in them.

Gold rose 1.2% today, but not because the odds of a hike fell — those were flat at about 59%. It rose because the dollar weakened on yen strength specifically, not because the Fed outlook changed. The distinction matters: a rally built on a genuine repricing of rate expectations rests on firmer ground and is harder to reverse. A rally built on a passing currency move can unwind the moment the dollar steadies. Not every rise in gold carries the same weight — ask what caused it before you read the trend.

🎯 Our forecast for the Thursday session

Covering the Thursday 10 September session, before PPI and jobless claims

45%Holds above $4,400 → $4,390–$4,440

The market waits for Thursday and Friday with no catalyst large enough to move it alone

30%Extension → $4,440–$4,485

If dollar weakness persists or Thursday’s data comes in soft

25%Back below $4,400 → $4,350–$4,400

If the dollar rebounds or the data comes in strong enough to lift hike odds again

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez: EGP 6,207 – 6,400, most likely EGP 6,264 – 6,335, at an implied rate of EGP 50.7.

Levels that change the picture

$4,460	First resistance
$4,400	Turned from resistance to possible support — needs a daily close to confirm
$4,350	100-day average
$4,283	Last week’s low

Confirmation of the recovery opens the road toward $4,460. Losing $4,400 again returns the market to the $4,350 zone and below that last week’s low.

Sources and method

Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · Kitco News · Egyptian counter price reports.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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