Gold Price Forecast — Thursday 10 September 2026

✅ Forecast correct

Grading Wednesday’s call — the 45% scenario is the one that landed

We weighted holding above $4,400 in a range of $4,390–$4,440 at 45%, our highest weight. Gold closed today at $4,408 — inside it exactly.

We also said $4,400 had turned from resistance into possible support and needed a daily close above it to confirm. That is what happened, two days running. No item was wrong today.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,408	+0.22% today
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,211	—
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,606	—
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,310	from 6,290
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,409	—

The highest in more than two weeks, holding above $4,400 even as oil and yields climbed.

What was strange about the move

The dollar index at 98.77, slightly weaker on continued yen strength.
The 10-year yield at 4.84%, near flat, up a little after the Treasury announced a smaller-than-expected long-bond buyback plan.
Brent at $101.5 and WTI at $96.5 — multi-month highs as the US–Iran situation grew more complex.
Silver around $67.3, steady, moving with gold.
Hike odds for 16 September around 58–59%, unchanged for days despite the oil move.

The same escalation headline can pull gold both ways at once, through two different channels: directly (war risk → haven demand → positive for gold) and indirectly through oil (war → costlier oil → higher inflation → higher rates → pressure on gold). Which one wins is decided by which is stronger at that moment. Today the direct channel won, even though the second was clearly running as well.

So when you see gold rising on a war headline, do not assume the market has stopped worrying about inflation. It may simply be that haven demand is the louder of the two right now.

🎯 Our forecast for the rest of the Thursday session

Covering the rest of Thursday 10 September, before the CPI report on Friday

42%Holds above $4,400 → $4,390–$4,440

The market reacts to PPI and jobless claims without committing before CPI

33%Extension → $4,440–$4,485

If today’s data comes in soft and the dollar keeps weakening

25%Back below $4,400 → $4,350–$4,400

If the data comes in strong and confirms the hike

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez: EGP 6,227 – 6,421, most likely EGP 6,299 – 6,356, at an implied rate of EGP 50.9.

Levels that change the picture

$4,527–4,535	200-day moving average
$4,460	First resistance
$4,400	Support, confirmed by two daily closes above it
$4,350	100-day average

Confirmed support above $4,400 opens the road toward $4,460 and then the 200-day average. Losing it again returns the market to the $4,350 zone.

Sources and method

Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · Egyptian counter price reports.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

← Previous report Next report →All forecasts