Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 23 September 2026
It closed Tuesday at $4,364 and trades at $4,317 this morning. The rise came through the oil channel; the fall came through the dollar channel. Same headlines, twelve hours apart.
Spot now $4,317 · Tuesday’s close $4,364 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,260 ·
We published three scenarios: 45% settling below the broken average ($4,270–$4,330), 30% deeper pressure ($4,230–$4,270), and 25% reclaiming the average ($4,330–$4,380). The close was $4,364.32 — inside the third.
By our rule that is a correct call, because the close fell inside a range we published before the session. By the same rule we say plainly that the ranking was wrong: we put the recovery last at 25%, and the recovery is what happened. That is the third time this month (3 and 9 September), and the common thread is that each time the move came from outside the Fed — twice from oil and once from the yen — while our attention was on the Fed.
Record: 22 published · 18 correct · 95% (18 of 19 graded; today’s is still open). How grading works →
The weekly call — the one that disagreed with a Kitco survey of 16 bullish analysts out of 16 — settles on the Friday 25 September close. The range we weighted at 45% is $4,300–$4,420.
Gold is at $4,317, above three floors sitting almost on top of one another: the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, now clustered at $4,307–$4,313, and just beneath them the $4,300 floor of our range. All three inside seventeen dollars.
Which means the number that decides our call is the same number the whole market is watching. If that floor holds, we are right. If it breaks on a close, our weekly call is wrong and we will write it on Saturday in those words — right about direction against Wall Street, wrong about the bucket.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,317 | −$47 on the day |
| Tuesday’s close | $4,364 | inside our third scenario |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,155 | was 7,200 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,559 | was 6,600 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,260 | was 6,300 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,365 | was 5,400 |
📉 21K came down EGP 40 a gram, reset at 11:35 AM today. But note where it came from: the implied dollar rate inside our counter price fell from about 52.1 to 51.5. Part of the drop is the currency, not the ounce — had the implied rate held, the gram would be near EGP 6,320 rather than 6,260. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
The same set of headlines reached the market through two different channels, and the channels pointed opposite ways.
Both channels run at all times. What changes is which one is louder at that moment — and that is exactly why we grade on the close rather than on a price at some hour. The hour tells you who won a minute; the close tells you who won the day.
Covering the 23 September close through the morning of Thursday 24 September
🇪🇬 21K in Suez by tomorrow morning: EGP 6,163 – 6,380, most likely EGP 6,235 – 6,322, assuming the currency holds.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,250 | EGP 6,163 |
| $4,300 (floor of our range) | EGP 6,235 |
| $4,317 (now) | EGP 6,260 |
| $4,360 | EGP 6,322 |
| $4,389 (21-day average) | EGP 6,364 |
| $4,400 | EGP 6,380 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.450), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,542 | 200-day moving average — the ceiling |
| $4,420 | Top of our weekly range |
| $4,389 | 21-day moving average — resistance |
| $4,364 | Tuesday’s close |
| $4,307–4,313 | 50-day and 100-day moving averages — the cluster |
| $4,300 | Floor of our weekly range — the number that decides the call |
| $4,235 | Fed-week low |
The band from $4,300 to $4,313 is the whole story today: two moving averages and the floor of our own forecast inside it. A daily close below opens $4,250 and puts the weekly call in danger. Holding it on a close above $4,313 keeps chop as the default into Friday. Settled on the Friday 25 September close.
Wednesday 10:00–11:00 AM — flash PMIs for Europe.
Wednesday 4:45 PM — US flash PMIs: manufacturing expected 53.5,
services 56.0. A stronger print is pressure on gold.
Thursday — the Trump–Xi meeting in Washington (the market is closing
positions ahead of it), the Swiss National Bank decision, and US jobless claims at 3:30 PM.
Friday — durable goods and consumer sentiment, and the weekly close
our call is graded on.
The verdict on the weekly call goes up on Saturday 26 September, whichever way it lands.
Spot price and session closes from Trading Economics; technical levels, the moving averages and RSI from FXStreet; oil, silver and the Tuesday session narrative from the daily metals desks; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:35 AM on 23 September.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.
Two corrections were made after publication. No figure, range or weighting changed.
Around 12:00 PM Cairo time — we had written that all three ranking misses this month
(3, 9 and 22 September) were driven by oil. The 9 September move came from the yen, so the sentence now
reads “twice from oil and once from the yen”.
Around 2:00 PM — we had placed the Trump–Xi meeting on Wednesday. It is on
Thursday 24 September; the wording of the rebound scenario and the calendar were corrected.