Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 28 September 2026
Gold opened the week with a fall: the ounce is at $4,152, down $133 (3.1%) from Friday’s close and at a seven-week low. We had this fall written down as a scenario on Saturday. The reason it happened was not in our reasoning, and we say so plainly today.
Spot now $4,152 · Friday’s close $4,285 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,100 ·
On Saturday we published three scenarios for the Friday 2 October close: 45% consolidation ($4,230–$4,340), 30% a break of the neckline ($4,150–$4,230), and 25% back above the floor ($4,340–$4,420). Today gold broke the neckline and fell to the bottom edge of the second.
What was right: this fall was on the map we published, with the numbers. The neckline at $4,230, which we called “the key number of the week”, is the level that broke.
What we missed: we tied a break to PCE and the payrolls report. It came on Monday, before any US data, through the oil channel: Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Brent rose above $106, and markets raised their bets on further Fed hikes.
The harder part is that we knew. Our reports of 22, 23 and 24 September said the oil channel was “the only thing working in gold’s favour”, and on 23 September we wrote that we tend to “underestimate how fast the market reacts when oil moves”. The weekly call on Saturday left that channel out. The US rejection came on Saturday, and our Sunday post did not mention it.
The correction, from today: oil and Hormuz are now a standing item in every daily and weekly report, and a check of weekend news is required before any Sunday post.
The grading rule has not changed: nothing is right or wrong before the Friday 2 October close. Gold is now about two dollars below the lowest number on our map ($4,150), intraday. If Friday closes below $4,150, we will write that the weekly call was wrong. Record: 26 published · 21 correct · 95% (21 of 22 graded; the weekly call and today’s are still open). Saturday’s weekly call →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,152 | −$133 from Friday |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,971 | down from 7,142 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,390 | down from 6,547 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,100 | down EGP 150 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,228 | down from 5,357 |
📉 21K fell EGP 150, from 6,250 to 6,100 (buy 6,050), in our counter reset at 11:00 AM today. The ounce fell 3.1% but the gram fell only 2.4%: the dollar rate implied in our counter price rose from about 51.8 to about 52.2, which cushioned the fall.
📌 Yesterday a follower asked whether 21K could fall to EGP 6,000. At today’s implied rate, 6,000 means an ounce near $4,084 — about $68 below where it is now. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
Covering the Monday 28 September session — New York close
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 5,994 – 6,215, most likely EGP 6,053 – 6,141, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.2.
A forecast has two parts: the map (where prices could go) and the driver (what takes them there).
On Saturday the map was good: we wrote $4,150–$4,230 ourselves. But the driver we wrote down was wrong. We said “a hot PCE or strong payrolls”, and gold fell on Monday, before either, on news from the Gulf.
That matters to you. If you think the only risk this week is Friday’s report, Monday will surprise you. Gold is now moving on two channels: the Fed, and oil. This week both are pushing the same way.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,080 | EGP 5,994 |
| $4,105 (78.6% retracement) | EGP 6,031 |
| $4,120 | EGP 6,053 |
| $4,152 (now) | EGP 6,100 |
| $4,180 | EGP 6,141 |
| $4,200 (broken floor) | EGP 6,170 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,215 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.469), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,250 | Top of the sell zone |
| $4,230 | The neckline — now resistance |
| $4,200 | The broken floor |
| $4,150 | The lowest number in our weekly call |
| $4,105 | 78.6% retracement |
| $4,000 | Round number and structural floor |
While gold is below $4,200, pressure is the default. A close back above $4,250 is what would say this break was false. On Friday, the number that settles our weekly call is $4,150.
Monday 28 September — no major data. The focus is on Hormuz news and Fed
speakers.
Tuesday 29 September — US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings.
Wednesday 30 September — ADP private payrolls, final Q2 GDP and the PCE price
index.
Thursday 1 October — ISM manufacturing and jobless claims.
Friday 2 October — the US jobs report, and the weekly close our
call is graded on.
Spot price, Friday’s close, oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index and the Hormuz news from Trading Economics; hike odds from CME FedWatch via Trading Economics and FXStreet; technical levels ($4,200, $4,250, $4,000) from FXStreet; Trump’s Saturday rejection from investingLive and NPR; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:00 AM on 28 September.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.