Home › Gold forecasts › Saturday 26 September 2026
Last week a unanimous Wall Street survey called gold higher. We said it would not rally — it would go sideways. Gold closed the week at $4,285, down $93. This week the same survey came back split, and a third of it now says what we said a week ago.
Friday’s close $4,285 · Previous Friday $4,378 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,250 ·
We published: 45% quiet below the floor ($4,250–$4,300), 30% a test of the neckline ($4,220–$4,250), and 25% back above the floor ($4,300–$4,340). Gold touched $4,300 during the day, turned back, and closed at $4,285.00 — inside the first.
This whole week: six reports, six green marks, and on the last two days the ranking was right as well.
Record: 25 published · 21 correct · 95% (21 of 22 graded). How grading works →
Friday 18 September, Kitco’s weekly survey: 16 of 16 Wall Street analysts expected gold to rise this week — not one neutral, not one bearish.
The same weekend, on our dated page (20 September): the most likely outcome was that gold would not extend the rally but consolidate between $4,300 and $4,420 (45%), with a rally at 35% and a pullback to $4,200–$4,300 at 20%.
What happened: gold closed the previous Friday at $4,378 and this Friday at $4,285 — down $93, about 2.1%.
| Question | Wall Street (16 of 16) | Us |
|---|---|---|
| Direction | “Up” ❌ | “Not up” ✅ |
| Bucket | Above $4,420 ❌ | $4,300–$4,420 — closed below by $15 |
As we wrote in the record of disagreements before the result was known, a close below $4,300 counts against us on the bucket, and we count it. The difference is that Wall Street missed the direction entirely, while we missed our bucket by fifteen dollars — and the close fell in the pullback scenario we had written down ourselves.
Kitco’s new survey, published on 25 September, of 14 analysts:
Kitco published the views of 12 of the 16 by name on 18 September. Here they are as the article gave them, with full respect for their experience — the survey covered a single week, and markets make fools of everyone in turn:
| Analyst | Firm | Published view (18 September) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc Chandler | Bannockburn Global Forex | Gold rose for the first time in four weeks |
| Adam Button | investingLive | “Buyers appeared after a hawkish meeting” |
| Darin Newsom | Barchart.com | The short-term trend turned up |
| Mark Leibovit | VR Metals/Resource Letter | “Cycle low” — buy |
| Adrian Day | Adrian Day Asset Management | Positive |
| Rich Checkan | Asset Strategies International | Gold is heading higher |
| James Stanley | Forex.com | The weekly candle is green |
| Sean Lusk | Walsh Trading | Positive even if they hike again |
| Colin Cieszynski | SIA Wealth Management | Gold has probably made a bottom |
| Alex Kuptsikevich | FxPro | Could reach $4,500 this week |
| CPM Group | — | Buy, target $4,590 |
| Michael Moor | Moor Analytics | Higher |
The other four of the sixteen voted without attribution, so we do not name them. Full details and sources are in the record of disagreements.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Friday’s close, per ounce | $4,285 | +$10 on Thursday |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,142 | |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,547 | |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,250 | buy 6,180 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,357 |
📈 21K is at EGP 6,250, EGP 10 above the figure in yesterday’s report, from the Friday 1:30 PM reset. World markets are closed until Monday. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
Covering the close of Friday 2 October 2026
🇪🇬 21K in Suez at the end of next week: EGP 6,053 – 6,447, most likely EGP 6,170 – 6,330, assuming the currency holds.
When everyone says the same word, it does not mean they know. Sometimes it means everyone who wanted to buy has already bought, and there is no new money left to push the price higher.
That is exactly what we wrote on 20 September: speculative positioning was near the top of its historical range, and the previous week’s rally looked like short covering rather than fresh buying. So we said the rally first needed to catch its breath.
This is not “we are smarter than Wall Street”. It is “we wrote the reason and the number beforehand, and graded ourselves in public every day”. That is how we will carry on.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,150 | EGP 6,053 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,170 |
| $4,285 (Friday’s close) | EGP 6,250 |
| $4,300 | EGP 6,272 |
| $4,340 | EGP 6,330 |
| $4,420 | EGP 6,447 |
📍 Raw metal at the local conversion factor (1.459), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,408 | 38.2% retracement |
| $4,320 | 50% retracement |
| $4,300 | The old floor — now resistance |
| $4,285 | Friday’s close |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,105 | 78.6% retracement |
The key number next week is $4,230: as long as gold closes above it, consolidation is the default. A weekly close below it confirms the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. Settled on the close of Friday 2 October.
Tuesday 29 September — US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings.
Wednesday 30 September — ADP private payrolls, final Q2 GDP, and the PCE price index.
Thursday 1 October — ISM manufacturing and weekly jobless claims.
Friday 2 October — the US jobs report, and the weekly close our
call is graded on.
Daily reports resume on Monday morning, on the same rule: the number before it happens, and the grading after.
Session closes from Trading Economics; Kitco’s weekly surveys of 18 and 25 September 2026, and next week’s calendar from the latter; technical levels from FXStreet; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 1:30 PM on 25 September.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.