Home › Gold forecasts › Tuesday 29 September 2026
Gold closed Monday at $4,115, down $170 in one session, its worst day in months, and is back at $4,148 this morning. This report does not continue yesterday’s argument. It re-reads the market with today’s numbers: what changed, which levels now govern it, and a new map for the week published beside the old one. Both get graded.
Spot now $4,148 · Monday’s close $4,115 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,120 ·
We published: 45% quiet ($4,120–$4,180), 30% a bounce ($4,180–$4,230), 25% the fall extends ($4,080–$4,120). The close was $4,114.98, inside the third, a few dollars off the low of the day.
By the rule we have used since day one, a close inside any published scenario counts as correct. But the ranking was wrong, and this is the fifth time this month (3, 9, 22, 23 and 28 September). The cause is the same each time: we rank “quiet” first by habit, and a market moving on one open headline keeps going in its direction. From today the weights follow that rule, not the habit.
The weekly call published on Saturday stands as written, unedited, and is graded on Friday’s close. The price is currently below its lowest number ($4,150). We will not repeat that every day; the verdict is on Saturday. Below you will find a new reading for the week, dated.
Record: 27 published · 22 correct · 96% (22 of 23 graded; the weekly call and today’s are still open). Monday’s report → · How grading works →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,148 | +$33 on Monday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,994 | up from 6,971 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,411 | up from 6,390 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,120 | up EGP 20 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,245 | up from 5,228 |
📈 21K rose EGP 20 to 6,120 (buy 6,040) in our counter reset at 12:20 PM today. The spread between sell and buy widened to EGP 80 (50 yesterday, 70 on Friday), which is normal in a market moving 4% in a day. Since Friday the ounce is down 3.2% and the gram only 2.1%: the dollar rate implied in our counter price rose from 51.85 on Friday to 52.22 yesterday and 52.45 today, cushioning the fall. At today’s implied rate, 21K at EGP 6,000 means an ounce near $4,066. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
On Saturday we wrote the weekly call on the assumption that US data was the driver and that oil was “holding gold up from below”. Monday and Tuesday changed that picture in four ways, and these are the basis we build on from today.
Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and denied offering sanctions relief. Iranian officials told news agencies they doubt an agreement before the US midterm elections on 3 November, and Foreign Minister Araghchi said he expects a formal US answer today, Tuesday. Brent is at $105–$107, up 16% in a month, even though Saudi Arabia has restored about half the flows on its East–West pipeline (roughly 3.5 million barrels a day to the Red Sea). Dear oil means higher inflation, higher rates, and pressure on gold. Last week that channel was working the other way.
The probability of a hike at the 27–28 October meeting is about 70% (CME FedWatch via Trading Economics; Kitco cites 65.9%, against 57.6% a week ago and 9.4% a month ago). Swaps traders price nearly a full percentage point of hikes over the coming year. The 10-year yield is at 5.24%, its highest since mid-2007 and up 46 basis points in September alone; the 30-year is at its highest since 2004 and the 2-year since May 2024. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said productivity gains from AI may not be enough to offset near-term price pressures.
Gold closed below the 200-day EMA ($4,310), the 100-day SMA ($4,292), the neckline ($4,230) and the eight-week floor ($4,200), all in one session. FXStreet describes a confirmed falling-wedge breakdown, and the head-and-shoulders pattern we had been watching is confirmed. RSI is near 36: weak, but not yet oversold, so sellers still hold the initiative. The levels that now matter: $4,099, the 78.6% retracement (touched yesterday); $4,015, a break of which would erase the whole August rally (Kitco); $3,990, the rising trend line; $3,950, the summer low.
The latest CFTC data (positions as of Tuesday 22 September) put managed money’s net long at 127,000 contracts, down 5,700 on the week. That is a moderate level, nowhere near the 200,000 that has preceded major corrections, nor the 50,000 that has preceded rebounds. Two things follow: the fall is not a blow-out of crowded positions, so there is no capitulation low to lean on; and there is little fuel for a cascading collapse either.
What would change this reading? Three signals, in the order they tend to appear: the 2-year yield falls before the rest (the first thing to move when the market decides the hikes will stop); Brent below $100; a daily close above $4,230. Without one of them, the trend is down and bounces get sold.
Covering the Tuesday 29 September session — New York close
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 5,990 – 6,219, most likely EGP 6,064 – 6,145, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.45.
✏️ Why are the two tails equal at 30% each? Because today’s US answer is a binary headline, and nobody knows its direction before it lands. Anyone giving one tail more weight today is guessing.
Published Tuesday 29 September · beside Saturday’s call, not in place of it · both are graded
Saturday’s call was built on a market at $4,285 driven by data. The market is now at $4,148 and driven by Hormuz and yields. This is the map from here:
🇪🇬 21K in Suez at the end of the week: EGP 5,828 – 6,344, most likely EGP 5,975 – 6,167, assuming the implied dollar rate holds.
📌 A note on method: we do not edit an old forecast to make it come out right; that is manipulation. We publish a new, dated reading beside it, and both are graded on Friday in public. If the old one is wrong we will write it; if the new one is wrong we will write that too.
There are two ways to handle a forecast the market has broken. The first is to quietly adjust the old numbers and act as if nothing was written. The second is to leave the old one as it stands, grade yourself on it, and publish a new, dated reading beside it.
We take the second, which means you will see two forecasts for Friday on this page: one from Saturday and one from Tuesday. That is not a contradiction; it is what happens when a market changes in two days. What matters is that both carry a date and both will be graded.
This matters to you personally. Anyone who tells you “I told you so” about gold, ask them: where did you write it, and when? And when you were wrong, where did you write that? Those who do not write it down are never held to account.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $3,950 (summer low) | EGP 5,828 |
| $4,015 (erases the August rally) | EGP 5,924 |
| $4,066 | EGP 6,000 |
| $4,099 (78.6% retracement) | EGP 6,048 |
| $4,115 (Monday’s close) | EGP 6,071 |
| $4,148 (now) | EGP 6,120 |
| $4,200 (broken floor) | EGP 6,197 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,241 |
| $4,292 (100-day average) | EGP 6,332 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4755), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,292 | 100-day average |
| $4,230 | The neckline — now resistance |
| $4,200 | The broken floor |
| $4,174 | 78.6% retracement on Kitco’s count — first resistance |
| $4,099 | 78.6% retracement on FXStreet’s count — first support |
| $4,015 | A break erases the August rally |
| $3,950 | The summer low |
A daily close above $4,230 says the break was false and this reading is withdrawn. A daily close below $4,099 opens the way to $4,015. In between: a range, and bounces get sold.
Tuesday 29 September — the expected US answer to Iran’s proposal; 5:00 PM:
consumer confidence (expected 89.2) and JOLTS job openings (expected 7.23 million); Barkin speaks.
Wednesday 30 September — 3:15 PM: ADP private payrolls (expected 72,000); 3:30 PM:
the PCE price index (core expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y) and final Q2 GDP; Goolsbee,
Musalem and Williams speak.
Thursday 1 October — 3:30 PM: jobless claims (expected 200,000); 5:00 PM: ISM
manufacturing (expected 54.9).
Friday 2 October — 3:30 PM: the US jobs report (expected 84,000;
unemployment 4.1%); midnight: the weekly close on which both Saturday’s call and
Tuesday’s reading are graded.
Spot price, Monday’s close, oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index, hike odds and the data calendar with consensus from Trading Economics; the futures close, Fibonacci levels ($4,174 and $4,015) and the 65.9% CME figure from Kitco (Gary Wagner); moving averages, technical levels, RSI and the falling wedge from FXStreet; the expected US answer and the Axios report from investingLive; speculative positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for 22 September via MetalCharts; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 12:20 PM on 29 September.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.