Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 30 September 2026
Gold closed Tuesday at $4,181 (+1.6%) and is at $4,194 this morning. Overnight, Brent fell from $106 to $96, US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest since 2014, and the market’s odds of an October hike fell from 70% to about 45%. Of the three signals we set on Tuesday, one has fired. At 3:30 PM Cairo time the PCE print decides the day.
Spot now $4,194 · Tuesday’s close $4,181 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,160 ·
We published: 40% the bounce fades ($4,110–$4,165), 30% a new low ($4,060–$4,110), 30% the bounce extends ($4,165–$4,215). The close was $4,181.11, inside the third.
The range was right and the ranking was wrong, for the sixth time this month. One difference from the earlier misses: we wrote that the two tails were equal because the day was binary, and it came up white. What moved it was not the US answer to Iran, which has still not come, but two weaker-than-expected numbers: job openings at 7.08 million (7.23 expected) and consumer confidence at 81.9 (89.2 expected; the lowest since 2014).
The weekly call (Saturday) and the new reading (Tuesday) both stand as written and are graded on Friday’s close. For the record only: the price now ($4,194) sits inside one scenario of each, which says nothing before Friday.
Record: 28 published · 23 correct · 96% (23 of 24 graded; the weekly calls and today’s are still open). Tuesday’s report → · How grading works →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,194 | +$13 on Tuesday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,040 | up from 6,994 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,453 | up from 6,411 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,160 | up EGP 40 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,280 | up from 5,245 |
📈 21K rose EGP 40 to 6,160 (buy 6,090) in our counter reset at 11:20 AM today. The spread is back to EGP 70 from 80 yesterday. The dollar rate implied in our counter price eased to 52.21 (52.45 yesterday), so today the gram rose exactly as much as the ounce did, with no help from the currency. At today’s implied rate, 21K at EGP 6,000 means an ounce near $4,085: a gap of $110, up from $68 on Monday. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
On Tuesday we wrote down three signals that would change the bearish reading. Their status this morning:
The upshot: the pressure has eased; the trend has not turned. And the paradox to know: while near-term hike odds fell, the 30-year yield rose to 5.62%, its highest since 2002. The market is saying the Fed may wait a month, but inflation and government debt are not going anywhere. That is what keeps gold from a real rally even with cheaper oil.
Covering the Wednesday 30 September session — New York close, after PCE
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,021 – 6,300, most likely EGP 6,109 – 6,197, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.21.
✏️ The tails are equal again, for the same reason: one number at 3:30 PM sets the direction, and nobody knows it beforehand. What we do know is that the market goes into it leaning optimistic (October odds fell 25 points in a week), so a hot number will hurt more than a soft one will help.
On Tuesday we set three signals. One fired within 24 hours, and gold rose $80 from its low. It is easy to say “that was the bottom”. But the other two have not fired, and the 30-year yield made a 24-year high the same day.
The difference between “the pressure eased” and “the trend reversed” is the difference between a bounce that gets sold at $4,230 and a rally that carries on to $4,300. We are still in the first, until a daily close above $4,230 says otherwise.
This matters to you: if the gram rises EGP 40 in a day, that is not proof the decline is over. It is proof that oil fell. And oil that fell in two days can rise in two days if Hormuz closes again.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,085 | EGP 6,000 |
| $4,100 (78.6% retracement) | EGP 6,021 |
| $4,110 (the week’s low) | EGP 6,036 |
| $4,160 | EGP 6,109 |
| $4,194 (now) | EGP 6,160 |
| $4,227 (61.8% retracement) | EGP 6,208 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,212 |
| $4,288 (100-day average) | EGP 6,297 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4687), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,307 | 200-day EMA |
| $4,288 | 100-day average |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,227 | 61.8% retracement |
| $4,185 | Support turned resistance |
| $4,110 | The week’s low |
| $4,100 | 78.6% retracement |
| $3,999 | Rising trend line |
Today the number that changes the picture is not on the chart; it is in the PCE report at 3:30 PM. A close above $4,230 withdraws the bearish reading. A close below $4,110 says the bounce was false. In between: a range, waiting for Friday.
Wednesday 30 September — 3:15 PM: ADP (expected 72,000); 3:30 PM:
PCE (core expected at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y) and final Q2 GDP; Goolsbee, Musalem and
Williams speak.
Thursday 1 October — 3:30 PM: jobless claims (expected 200,000); 5:00 PM: ISM
manufacturing (expected 54.9).
Friday 2 October — 3:30 PM: the US jobs report (expected 84,000;
unemployment 4.1%); midnight: the weekly close on which Saturday’s call and
Tuesday’s reading are graded.
Spot price, Tuesday’s close, oil, Treasury yields (2, 10 and 30 years), the dollar index, silver and the Williams and Barr remarks from Trading Economics; October hike odds (44–47%) from Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate, and FXStreet; technical levels, moving averages and RSI from FXStreet; consumer confidence (81.9) from Quartz and FXStreet; job openings (7.08 million) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Hormuz developments and sanctions from CBS News; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:20 AM on 30 September.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.