Home › Gold forecasts › Thursday 1 October 2026
Gold rose to $4,220 on the soft PCE print and closed Wednesday at $4,158, down on the day despite the best inflation news in months. It is at $4,162 this morning. The reason in one line: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34%, its highest since 2002, and the dollar its highest since April 2025. Tomorrow brings payrolls and the weekly close on which two calls are graded.
Spot now $4,162 · Wednesday’s close $4,158 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,140 ·
We published: 40% PCE as expected ($4,160–$4,220), 30% PCE hot ($4,100–$4,160), 30% PCE softer ($4,220–$4,290). The close was $4,157.80, inside the second by two dollars.
We will say it as it is: this is the weakest kind of correct. The number landed in the “PCE hot” box while PCE came in softer than expected. The range caught the close; the story we wrote beside it was wrong. What actually happened: gold rose to $4,220 on the print (exactly our third scenario), then long-end yields rose to their highest since 2002 and ate the whole rally. The news was good and the market sold it.
The ranking was wrong for the seventh time this month. Since Tuesday we have said the “quiet” scenario carries more weight than it deserves. From today we add something else: beside each scenario we write the number that confirms it, not only the story, so that when a close lands in a box we know whether it landed there for the right reason or by chance.
Record: 29 published · 24 correct · 96% (24 of 25 graded; the weekly calls and today’s are still open). Wednesday’s report → · How grading works →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,162 | +$4 on Wednesday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,017 | down from 7,040 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,432 | down from 6,453 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,140 | down EGP 20 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,262 | down from 5,280 |
📉 21K fell EGP 20 to 6,140 (buy 6,090) in our counter reset at 11:00 AM today; the spread is EGP 50. The dollar rate implied in our counter price is 52.44 (52.21 yesterday), so the gram fell a little less than the ounce. At today’s implied rate, 21K at EGP 6,000 means an ounce near $4,067. Live prices are always at today’s prices.
On Tuesday we set three signals that would change the bearish reading. Yesterday one was firing. Today:
The upshot: the bearish reading still holds and bounces get sold. The most important number in the market right now is not in gold; it is the bond yield. As long as it makes new highs, gold will not make a final low.
Covering the Thursday 1 October session — New York close, before payrolls
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,021 – 6,255, most likely EGP 6,092 – 6,181, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.44.
✏️ New from today: each scenario carries “the number that confirms it”. If a close lands in a box without that number, we will write it up as “correct by chance”, as we should have yesterday.
Yesterday we had the softest inflation print in months, a Fed official saying one more hike would suffice, and October odds collapsing from 70% to 38% in a week. Anyone reading those headlines would say gold must rise. And it did rise $60, for about two hours.
Then long-dated yields made a 24-year high the same day. The market is saying something important: the problem is not the October hike; it is that energy-driven inflation and government debt make investors demand a higher return on bonds, and gold, which pays nothing, loses that comparison.
This matters to you: when you hear “inflation eased” and think gold will rise, look at the bond yield first. It is what runs the market now, not the Fed.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,067 | EGP 6,000 |
| $4,082 (channel bottom) | EGP 6,021 |
| $4,130 | EGP 6,092 |
| $4,162 (now) | EGP 6,140 |
| $4,190 | EGP 6,181 |
| $4,200 (sellers’ ceiling) | EGP 6,196 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,240 |
| $4,283 (100-day average) | EGP 6,318 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4753), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,305 | Descending trend line |
| $4,283 | 100-day average |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,220 | Wednesday’s high (the rejection) |
| $4,200 | Sellers’ ceiling |
| $4,130 | The week’s support |
| $4,082 | Bottom of the falling channel |
| $3,999 | Rising trend line |
Today the picture turns on one number: a close above $4,230. Without it, every bounce to $4,200–$4,220 gets sold. Below $4,082 the way to $4,000 is open. The whole week is judged tomorrow, after payrolls.
Thursday 1 October — 3:30 PM: jobless claims (expected 200,000); 5:00 PM: ISM
manufacturing (expected 54.9); Fed speakers; OPEC+ meeting (November quotas expected unchanged).
Friday 2 October — 3:30 PM: the US jobs report (expected 84,000;
unemployment 4.1%); midnight: the weekly close on which Saturday’s call and
Tuesday’s reading are graded.
Saturday 3 October — the weekly verdict and next week’s call.
Spot price, Wednesday’s close, oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index and hike odds from Trading Economics; technical levels, moving averages, RSI and Wednesday’s $4,220 high from FXStreet; the Trump remark, the US counter-proposal, the tanker strikes and the Iraq withdrawal from CBS News; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:00 AM on 1 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.