Home › Gold forecasts › Friday 2 October 2026
Gold closed Thursday at $4,178, inside the scenario we ranked first, and the number we said would confirm it came in (ISM at 54.5). It is at $4,185 this morning. At 3:30 PM Cairo time the jobs report lands, and at midnight the week closes on both Saturday’s call and Tuesday’s reading.
Spot now $4,185 · Thursday’s close $4,178 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,160 ·
We published: 40% waiting for payrolls ($4,130–$4,190), 30% yields keep going ($4,080–$4,130), 30% a second try at $4,220 ($4,190–$4,240). The close was $4,177.94, inside the first.
Yesterday, for the first time, we wrote a confirming number beside each scenario. For the first it was “a close between $4,130 and $4,190 with ISM between 54 and 56”. ISM came in at 54.5. So this one is not chance: the range, the ranking and the reason all held. It is the first time that has happened since 25 September, after seven days on which the ranking was wrong.
Worth saying too: jobless claims came in at 197,000 (below expectations) and the ISM prices index jumped to 77.9, two numbers against gold, and yet yields eased from their peak (the 10-year from 5.34% to 5.24%, the 2-year from 4.92% to 4.79%). The market caught its breath before payrolls, as we wrote.
Record: 30 published · 25 correct · 96% (25 of 26 graded; both weekly calls and today’s are still open). Thursday’s report → · How grading works →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,185 | +$7 on Thursday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,040 | up from 7,017 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,453 | up from 6,432 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,160 | up EGP 20 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,280 | up from 5,262 |
📈 21K at EGP 6,160 (buy 6,090), from our counter reset on Thursday at 2:00 PM, up EGP 20 on yesterday morning’s figure. If it is reset today, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price is 52.33 (52.44 yesterday); the gram is tracking the ounce this week, with the rate in a narrow 52.2–52.5 band. Since last Friday’s close ($4,285) the ounce is down 2.3% and the gram 1.4% (from 6,250 to 6,160).
Two calls for tonight’s close are published and unedited: Saturday’s call (26 September), most likely range $4,230–$4,340, and Tuesday’s reading (29 September), most likely range $4,050–$4,180. So that nobody decides afterwards which one “was right”, here is the map twelve hours before the close:
| If the close is | Saturday’s call | Tuesday’s reading |
|---|---|---|
| Below $3,950 | ❌ | ❌ |
| $3,950–$4,050 | ❌ | ✅ (second scenario) |
| $4,050–$4,150 | ❌ | ✅ (first) |
| $4,150–$4,180 | ✅ (second) | ✅ (first) |
| $4,180–$4,230 ← gold is here now | ✅ (second) | ✅ (third) |
| $4,230–$4,300 | ✅ (first) | ✅ (third) |
| $4,300–$4,420 | ✅ (first or third) | ❌ |
| Above $4,420 | ❌ | ❌ |
Gold is currently in the zone where both are right. But that is 11:00 AM, and the jobs report at 3:30 PM moves $100 either way. The verdict is at midnight and goes up tomorrow, Saturday. If one of them is wrong, we will write which one and why.
Covering the Friday 2 October session — New York close = the weekly close
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Saturday morning: EGP 6,020 – 6,300, most likely EGP 6,108 – 6,197, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.33.
✏️ The tails are equal for the fourth time this week, for the same reason: one unknown number at 3:30 PM. What has changed is that the market goes into it calmer than last week, with October odds at 38% rather than 70%, so a strong surprise would hurt more than a weak one would help.
This week we were right four times out of four. But we wrote ourselves that three of them had the wrong ranking, and one had a story that did not happen. Only yesterday did the range, the ranking and the reason line up.
Why do we draw the line? Because a call that is right by chance teaches nothing, and a call that is right for a reason can be repeated. Once we put a confirming number beside each scenario, we had a way to tell the difference before celebrating.
This matters to you: when someone says “I told you it would fall”, ask: why did you say so, and why did it fall? If those are not the same reason, it was not a forecast; it was luck.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,050 | EGP 5,961 |
| $4,090 | EGP 6,020 |
| $4,130 | EGP 6,079 |
| $4,150 (floor of Saturday’s call) | EGP 6,108 |
| $4,185 (now) | EGP 6,160 |
| $4,210 | EGP 6,197 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,226 |
| $4,280 | EGP 6,300 |
| $4,300 (ceiling of Tuesday’s reading) | EGP 6,329 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.472), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,300 | 20-day average |
| $4,285 | 100-day average |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,220 | Wednesday’s high |
| $4,210 | Ceiling of today’s first scenario |
| $4,150 | Floor of today’s first scenario, and of Saturday’s call |
| $4,130 | Lower Bollinger band |
| $4,082 | Bottom of the falling channel |
Tonight two numbers grade three calls: $4,150 and $4,230. Between them, Saturday’s call, Tuesday’s reading and today’s forecast are all right. Below $4,150 Saturday’s call fails. Above $4,300 Tuesday’s reading fails. The verdict is tomorrow morning.
Friday 3:30 PM — the US jobs report (expected 90,000; unemployment 4.1%).
Friday midnight — the weekly close on which Saturday’s call,
Tuesday’s reading and today’s forecast are graded.
Saturday 3 October, morning — the weekly verdict: both calls, what was right, what
was wrong and why, and next week’s call.
Spot price, Thursday’s close, oil, Treasury yields, hike odds, the Kashkari remark and the Pentagon reports from Trading Economics; ISM 54.5 and its prices index 77.9 from the Institute for Supply Management via PR Newswire; jobless claims (197,000) from Trading Economics; the payrolls consensus and technical levels (Bollinger bands, 100-day average) from FXStreet; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 2:00 PM on 1 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.