Home › Gold forecasts › Tuesday 6 October 2026
Gold closed Monday at $4,140, inside the scenario we ranked first (the trend continues below $4,150), but the number we said would confirm it did not arrive. So we write it as promised: correct by chance. This morning the ounce is at $4,131, its lowest in two months, for one reason written on every screen: the US 10-year yield is at a 24-year high. Day two of five in grading the weekly call, and the ounce has entered its first box.
Spot now $4,131 · Monday’s close $4,140 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,140 ·
We published: 40% the trend continues below $4,150 ($4,090–$4,150), 35% a quiet day ($4,150–$4,195), 25% a bounce ($4,195–$4,240). The close was $4,139.75, inside the first, and in the right order.
But the confirming number we set was “the dollar index above 102.3 or ISM above 56”. The dollar closed at 102.16 and ISM came in at 54.9. Neither held. So under rule four: correct by chance, and we write it that way even though the direction we called is the one that happened.
What actually moved the market were two things we left out of the condition: the 10-year yield jumped to its highest in 24 years, and the ISM services prices index came in at 74, the highest since July 2022. The idea was right (the trend, and pressure from America); the yardstick we chose to measure it with was wrong. The lesson is below.
Record: 32 published · 27 correct · 90% (27 of 30 graded; the weekly call and today’s are still open). Monday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,131 the ounce has entered the first box of Saturday’s call (40% the decline continues slowly, $4,030–$4,150), and that scenario’s confirming number, a 10-year yield above 5.2%, is met right now (5.29%). If Friday closed here, the call would be right for the right reason. But this is Tuesday morning, with the Fed minutes and two bond auctions still ahead. No verdict before midnight on Friday.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,131 | −$9 on Monday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,017 | unchanged |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,432 | unchanged |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,140 | unchanged (buy up EGP 10) |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,262 | unchanged |
➡️ 21K steady at EGP 6,140 (buy 6,080, up EGP 10), from our counter reset at 11:00 this morning. The ounce is down $25 from Monday morning and the gram has not moved. If it is reset, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price rose to 52.83 (52.52 yesterday): this is what happens when the ounce falls and the gram waits; the gap is stored in the implied rate and is released when the local market decides. Since Friday’s close ($4,140) the ounce is down 0.2% and the gram up 0.2%.
Covering the Tuesday 6 October session — New York close
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,049 – 6,272, most likely EGP 6,049 – 6,139, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.83.
✏️ This time the confirming number in all three is the same number: the 10-year yield. Because that is what has moved gold these two weeks, not the dollar and not ISM. Yesterday we chose a side-measure and ended up “correct by chance”; today we measure with the thing itself.
Yesterday we said the trend would continue, and it did. But when we wrote the number that would confirm it, we wrote the dollar and ISM. Neither moved as much as we said. What moved gold was the yield, and what moved the yield was the prices index inside ISM, not the ISM headline.
The result: right on paper, chance by the rule. That is not a flaw in the rule; it is a flaw in our choice. The rule did exactly what it is for: it showed that we knew the direction and could not name the cause with the right number.
What this means for you: when someone says “gold will fall because the dollar will rise”, ask: and why will the dollar rise? If they cannot answer, they are reading the screen, not the market.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $3,900 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 5,797 |
| $4,000 | EGP 5,945 |
| $4,030 (boundary of the weekly call’s second scenario) | EGP 5,990 |
| $4,070 | EGP 6,049 |
| $4,100 (lower Bollinger band) | EGP 6,094 |
| $4,131 (now) | EGP 6,140 |
| $4,150 (the dividing line) | EGP 6,168 |
| $4,175 | EGP 6,205 |
| $4,220 | EGP 6,272 |
| $4,275 (100-day average) | EGP 6,354 |
| $4,300 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,391 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4863), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,275 | 100-day average |
| $4,220 | Ceiling of today’s third scenario |
| $4,175 | Ceiling of today’s second scenario |
| $4,150 | The dividing line in the weekly call |
| $4,130 | Ceiling of today’s first scenario |
| $4,100 | Lower Bollinger band and the two-month low |
| $4,070 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $4,030 | Boundary of the weekly call’s second scenario |
| $4,000 | The rising trend line |
The number everyone watches tonight is not in gold: the 10-year yield. Above 5.30% gold tests $4,100. Below 5.20% it bounces. In between, it waits for the Fed minutes tomorrow at 9:00 PM.
Tuesday 3:30 PM — US trade balance (August).
Tuesday 4:05 PM Williams (New York Fed) · 5:45 PM Bowman ·
8:00 PM 3-year auction · 2:00 AM Logan.
Wednesday 8:00 PM — 10-year auction · 9:00 PM —
the FOMC minutes (September meeting).
Thursday 3:30 PM jobless claims · 8:00 PM 30-year auction.
Friday midnight — the weekly close on which the weekly call is graded.
Spot price, Monday’s close ($4,139.75), oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index and hike odds from Trading Economics; ISM services 54.9, its prices index at 74 and the components from the Institute for Supply Management via Trading Economics; Gulf shipments of 17.5 million barrels, Kuwait’s output and the G7 reserve release from Trading Economics; the three tankers, the exclusion zone, the Pezeshkian remark and the Saudi pipeline reports from CBS News’ live coverage (5–6 October); technical levels (Bollinger $4,100, 100-day average, RSI) from FXStreet; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:00 AM on 6 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.