Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 7 October 2026
Gold touched $4,103 on Tuesday morning and closed at $4,165, inside the scenario we ranked second (a pause above $4,100), with its confirming number met: the 10-year yield closed at 5.29%, inside the band we wrote. Right for the reason, but not in the order: we ranked the continuation first and the pause won. This morning the ounce is back at $4,131 after Logan’s hawkish remarks and a rebound in oil. Tonight: the 10-year auction at 8:00 PM and the Fed minutes at 9:00 PM Cairo time, on day three of five in grading the weekly call.
Spot now $4,131 · Tuesday’s close $4,165 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,140 ·
We published: 40% the trend continues and tests $4,100 ($4,070–$4,130), 35% a pause above $4,100 before the minutes ($4,130–$4,175), 25% a bounce ($4,175–$4,220). The close was $4,164.55, inside the second.
The confirming number was “the 10-year between 5.20% and 5.30%”. The yield closed at 5.29% (per Trading Economics; other sources printed 5.31%). Met, at the edge, and we write it as that: right for the reason, the first time since Thursday 1 October that the range and the reason have met.
The ranking was wrong: we put the continuation first (40%) and the pause second (35%). Gold did fall to $4,103 during the session, inside the first box, but Williams and Bowman said “no urgency” for the next hike in the afternoon, the yield eased from its 5.35% peak, and gold closed above $4,150. The market chose our second option, by five points.
Record: 33 published · 28 correct · 90% (28 of 31 graded; the weekly call and today’s are still open). Tuesday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,131 the ounce is still inside the first box of Saturday’s call (40% the decline continues slowly, $4,030–$4,150), and its confirming number, a 10-year yield above 5.2%, is met (5.31%). Tuesday’s close of $4,165 sat above the line for a few hours and came back under it this morning. Tonight’s minutes are the biggest event of the week, and the 30-year auction is still to come on Thursday. The verdict is at midnight on Friday.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,131 | −$33 on Tuesday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,017 | unchanged |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,432 | unchanged |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,140 | unchanged (buy up EGP 20) |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,262 | unchanged |
➡️ 21K steady at EGP 6,140 for a third day (buy 6,100, up EGP 20), from our counter reset at 11:00 this morning; the sell-buy spread has narrowed to EGP 40. If it is reset, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price is 52.83, the same as yesterday because the ounce is back where it was. The ounce gained $34 and gave them back within 24 hours, and the gram saw none of it. Since Friday’s close ($4,140) the ounce is down 0.2% and the gram up 0.2%.
Covering the Wednesday 7 October session — New York close, after the minutes
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,064 – 6,287, most likely EGP 6,064 – 6,139, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.83.
✏️ Why is the continuation still first after the pause won yesterday? Because rule three says that in a trending market the first scenario is continuation; because the latest Fed voice (Logan, after midnight) was more hawkish than the afternoon ones; and because the minutes of a meeting that raised rates are unlikely to read dovish. But the gap is five points, exactly as yesterday.
In a single day we heard five Fed officials: two saying “no urgency”, one saying policy is “still somewhat accommodative”, one saying there is “work to do on inflation”, and one calling for 50 points more. Gold rose in the afternoon with the first two and fell overnight with the last.
Tonight’s minutes are the full picture of that meeting: not one member’s words but all nineteen. That is what makes them worth more than any single speech. When you read “the Fed said”, ask: which one of them, and do they vote?
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $3,900 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 5,797 |
| $4,000 | EGP 5,945 |
| $4,030 (boundary of the weekly call’s second scenario) | EGP 5,990 |
| $4,080 | EGP 6,064 |
| $4,100 (Tuesday’s low, $4,103) | EGP 6,094 |
| $4,131 (now) | EGP 6,140 |
| $4,150 (the dividing line) | EGP 6,168 |
| $4,165 (Tuesday’s close) | EGP 6,191 |
| $4,180 | EGP 6,213 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,287 |
| $4,300 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,391 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4863), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,330 | 50-day average |
| $4,230 | The neckline, and the ceiling of today’s third scenario |
| $4,180 | Ceiling of today’s second scenario |
| $4,165 | Tuesday’s close |
| $4,150 | The dividing line in the weekly call |
| $4,130 | Ceiling of today’s first scenario |
| $4,103 | Tuesday’s low |
| $4,080 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $4,030 | Boundary of the weekly call’s second scenario |
| $3,996 | 29 July low |
Two numbers tonight: 5.30% in the yield and $4,103 in gold. A yield above 5.30% after the minutes means gold retests $4,103. If $4,103 breaks, the road to $4,030 is open and the weekly call’s second scenario enters the game.
Wednesday 8:00 PM — 10-year auction.
Wednesday 9:00 PM — the FOMC minutes (September meeting).
Thursday 3:30 PM — jobless claims (expected 195,000).
Thursday 8:00 PM — 30-year auction.
Friday 5:00 PM Michigan consumer sentiment · midnight the weekly close on
which the weekly call is graded.
Spot price, Tuesday’s close ($4,164.55), oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index, hike odds, the nine Hormuz incidents, the Saudi pipeline and inventories from Trading Economics; the session low of $4,103.52 and technical levels (Fibonacci $4,230, 50-day average, $3,996 support) from FX Empire; the Williams, Bowman, Musalem, Schmid and Logan remarks from Newsquawk (6 October); this week’s Treasury issuance ($119 billion) from 24/7 Wall St.; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:00 AM on 7 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.