Home › Gold forecasts › Thursday 8 October 2026
The minutes were hawkish exactly as we wrote: all 19 officials backed September’s hike and most see another before year-end. Gold closed Wednesday at $4,111, inside the scenario we ranked first, in the right order for the first time since 1 October. But the number we said would confirm it landed exactly on the line (the yield closed at 5.30%; the condition was “above 5.30%”), so by our rule we write it as it is. This morning the ounce is at $4,126, and oil is up 3.8% on a report that the White House asked for strike options against Iran before the elections. Day four of five in grading the weekly call.
Spot now $4,126 · Wednesday’s close $4,111 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,115 ·
We published: 40% hawkish minutes or a weak auction ($4,080–$4,130), 35% minutes as expected ($4,130–$4,180), 25% softer minutes ($4,180–$4,230). The close was $4,110.98, inside the first, in the right order. The first correct ranking since Thursday 1 October.
The reason we wrote happened to the letter: the minutes showed all 19 backed the hike and most see another by year-end. But the confirming number we set was “the 10-year above 5.30%”. The yield touched 5.36% in the session, then a strong 10-year auction pulled it back, and it closed at 5.30% exactly. On the line, not above it.
By rule four: on the line means not met, which means correct by chance. We write it that way even though the written reason is what happened, because the rule matters more than our mood. The fix we apply from today: thresholds are written “at or above”, not “above”.
Record: 34 published · 29 correct · 91% (29 of 32 graded; the weekly call and today’s are still open). Wednesday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,126 the ounce is inside the first box of Saturday’s call (40% the decline continues slowly, $4,030–$4,150) for a third day, and its confirming number, a 10-year yield above 5.2%, is met (5.34%). Two sessions remain: today with the 30-year auction, and tomorrow. If the possible US strike on Iran turns from a report into an event, every number here changes within an hour. The verdict is at midnight on Friday, published Saturday morning.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,126 | +$15 on Wednesday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,988 | down from 7,017 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,406 | down from 6,432 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,115 | down EGP 25 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,241 | down from 5,262 |
📉 21K at EGP 6,115 (buy 6,050), from our counter reset at 11:00 this morning, down EGP 25 after three days at 6,140. The gram finally heard the ounce. If it is reset, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price fell to 52.68 (52.83): as we wrote on Tuesday, the gap stored in the implied rate is released when the local market decides, and it decided today. Since last Friday’s close ($4,140) the ounce is down 0.3% and the gram 0.2% (from 6,130 to 6,115).
Covering the Thursday 8 October session — New York close
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,017 – 6,247, most likely EGP 6,017 – 6,106, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.68.
✏️ From today, thresholds are written “at or above” and “at or below” so we do not fall into the on-the-line trap again. And note that oil is up 3.8% while gold is up only 0.4%: in this war gold fears oil more than it benefits from it, because oil goes to inflation and inflation goes to yields.
Yesterday we wrote “hawkish minutes” and they were hawkish to the letter. We wrote the first box and it closed there. We wrote the ranking and it held. We wanted to write “right for the reason” and celebrate. But the number we set ourselves, “above 5.30%”, came in at exactly 5.30. And the rule we set ourselves says: without the number, chance.
We could have said “close enough” and moved on. But what passes once passes ten times, and then the whole record is “close enough”. So we write it as chance, and we fix the method: thresholds from today are “at or above”. This is the leniency we promised not to return to, in its opposite direction.
What this means for you: the page that grades itself strictly when the number is in its favour is the one to believe when it tells you it was right.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $3,900 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 5,780 |
| $4,000 | EGP 5,928 |
| $4,030 (boundary of the weekly call’s second scenario) | EGP 5,973 |
| $4,060 | EGP 6,017 |
| $4,100 (Wednesday’s low) | EGP 6,076 |
| $4,111 (Wednesday’s close) | EGP 6,093 |
| $4,126 (now) | EGP 6,115 |
| $4,150 (the dividing line) | EGP 6,151 |
| $4,165 | EGP 6,173 |
| $4,215 | EGP 6,247 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,269 |
| $4,300 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,373 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4821), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,215 | Ceiling of today’s third scenario |
| $4,165 | Ceiling of today’s second scenario |
| $4,150 | The dividing line in the weekly call |
| $4,120 | Ceiling of today’s first scenario |
| $4,100 | Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s low |
| $4,060 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $4,030 | Boundary of the weekly call’s second scenario |
| $3,996 | 29 July low |
$4,100 was touched twice this week and did not break. A third time, with a close below it, opens the road to $4,030 and brings the weekly call’s second scenario (a break of $4,000) back into play. The number driving all of it: the 30-year yield in tonight’s auction.
Thursday 3:30 PM — jobless claims (expected 195,000).
Thursday 8:00 PM — 30-year auction.
Friday 5:00 PM — Michigan consumer sentiment (expected 48.1).
Friday midnight — the weekly close on which the weekly call is graded.
Saturday 10 October, morning — the weekly verdict and next week’s call.
Spot price, Wednesday’s close ($4,110.98), oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index, hike odds, the 10-year auction result and inventories from Trading Economics; the minutes’ content (the 19-0 backing, inflation estimates, the 5.36% peak) from Babypips, CNBC and Bloomberg (7–8 October); the Iran strike-options report from The Atlantic via Iran International (7 October); local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:00 AM on 8 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.