Home › Gold forecasts › Friday 9 October 2026
Gold closed Thursday at $4,133, inside the scenario we ranked second, with the yield at 5.24% against a band we wrote as 5.25%–5.33%. One hundredth short, for the third time in a week. Then the picture flipped overnight: Trump ruled out a strike on Iran before the elections, oil fell, the 30-year auction was strong, and the yield came off its 24-year high. Gold jumped to $4,184 this morning, above the $4,150 line that 70% of our weekly weight sits below. The week closes at midnight; this is the last day of grading the weekly call. The map is below.
Spot now $4,184 · Thursday’s close $4,133 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,160 ·
We published: 40% yields keep going ($4,060–$4,120), 35% holding between the week’s low and the line ($4,120–$4,165), 25% Iran returns to the picture ($4,165–$4,215). The close was $4,133.12, inside the second.
The confirming number was “the 10-year between 5.25% and 5.33%”. The 30-year auction was strong and the yield closed at 5.24%. One hundredth below the band. By the rule: correct by chance, and we write it that way.
But three times in one week the number has landed on or beside the edge (Monday, Wednesday, Thursday), and that is not chance; it is a flaw in our method. The yield bands we write are too narrow (0.08 points) in a market where the yield moves 0.10 a day. From today, any yield band is at least 0.12 points wide, and thresholds are “at or above”. The second correction this week, published in the open like the first.
Record: 35 published · 30 correct · 91% (30 of 33 graded; the weekly call and today’s are graded tonight). Thursday’s report → · How grading works →
Saturday’s call, unedited: 40% the decline continues slowly ($4,030–$4,150) · 30% $4,000 breaks ($3,900–$4,030) · 30% a bounce ($4,150–$4,300). So that nobody grades it by mood afterwards, here is the map ten hours before the close:
| If the close is | The weekly call | Confirming number |
|---|---|---|
| Below $3,900 | ❌ | — |
| $3,900–$4,030 | ✅ (second scenario) | 30-year above 5.7% or Brent above $108 |
| $4,030–$4,150 | ✅ (first · 40%) | 10-year above 5.2%: met now (5.26%) |
| $4,150–$4,300 ← gold is here now ($4,184) | ✅ (third · 30%) | 2-year below 4.7%: not met (4.80%) |
| Above $4,300 | ❌ | — |
If it closes here: the weekly call is correct by the rule, but in the scenario we ranked third and without its confirming number, so “correct by chance”, with 70% of our weight on the wrong side. If it falls back below $4,150: correct, in order, for the reason. The difference between the two is $34, with ten hours and the Michigan survey at 5:00 PM still to come. The verdict is at midnight, published tomorrow with next week’s call.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,184 | +$51 on Thursday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,040 | up from 6,988 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,453 | up from 6,406 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,160 | up EGP 45 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,280 | up from 5,241 |
📈 21K at EGP 6,160 (buy 6,100), from our counter reset at 1:40 PM today, up EGP 45 on yesterday. If it is reset, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price is 52.33 (52.68 yesterday): the ounce rose 1.4% and the gram 0.7%; the local market did not catch all of the move and the gap is stored in the implied rate, as usual. For the week: since last Friday’s close ($4,140) the ounce is up 1.1% and the gram 0.5% (from 6,130 to 6,160).
Covering the Friday 9 October session — New York close = the weekly close · yield bands under the new rule (at least 0.12 points)
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Saturday morning: EGP 6,036 – 6,301, most likely EGP 6,125 – 6,228, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.33.
✏️ Why is “continuation” today the continuation of the bounce rather than of the decline? Rule three says the first scenario is the continuation of the trend, and the week’s trend is down. But that trend stood on two legs (oil above $100 and the yield above 5.3%), and both broke in one night. When the cause changes the trend changes, and the rule follows the cause, not the line on the chart. If we are wrong, we will write that we misread the night.
Our weekly call stood on two causes: oil above $100 and the yield above 5.2%. For four days both were present and gold was in the box we named. In one night Trump pulled oil down and an auction pulled the yield down, and gold left the box.
That does not mean the call was wrong the day it was written. It means the event that breaks it happened, and we had given that event a 30% chance. What we take from it: when someone tells you “gold will do this this week”, ask what it stands on, and what they will say if that changes. Whoever has no answer has no forecast.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $3,900 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 5,742 |
| $4,030 | EGP 5,933 |
| $4,100 (the week’s low) | EGP 6,036 |
| $4,133 (Thursday’s close) | EGP 6,085 |
| $4,150 (the dividing line) | EGP 6,110 |
| $4,184 (now) | EGP 6,160 |
| $4,200 | EGP 6,184 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,228 |
| $4,250 | EGP 6,257 |
| $4,300 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,331 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4723), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,300 | Ceiling of the weekly call |
| $4,280 | Ceiling of today’s third scenario |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,200 | First resistance |
| $4,160 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $4,150 | The line that grades the weekly call |
| $4,131 | This morning’s low |
| $4,120 | Floor of today’s second scenario |
| $4,100 | The week’s low |
Tonight one number grades two calls: $4,150. Above it, the weekly call is correct by chance and today’s call is correct in order. Below it, the weekly call is correct for the reason and today’s lands in its second scenario. Above $4,300 the weekly call fails. The verdict is at midnight.
Friday 5:00 PM — Michigan consumer sentiment (expected 48.1).
Friday midnight — the weekly close on which the weekly call and today’s
forecast are graded.
Saturday 10 October, morning — the weekly verdict: the weekly call and the five daily calls, what
was right, what was right by chance and why, both corrections, and next week’s call.
Next week: Tuesday, September CPI, the most important number before the October Fed meeting.
Spot price, Thursday’s close ($4,133.12), oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index, hike odds, the 30-year auction, the Waller remark and ETF flows from Trading Economics; Trump’s Truth Social statement, the Pentagon planning and Iran’s stance from Axios (8 October); the hurricane, the nine tankers and Hormuz exports from Trading Economics; technical levels ($4,200 / $4,250 / $4,300, the $4,131 low) from Mitrade; local prices from our own published price list, reset at 1:40 PM on 9 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.