Home › Gold forecasts › Saturday 10 October 2026
Gold closed the week at $4,194, up $54 (1.3%) after two weeks of decline, and stayed up late into Friday’s session. Friday’s daily call was right, in order, for the reason, the first time since 1 October. The weekly call closed inside its third box: right by the rule, but 70% of our weight was on the other side and its confirming number did not arrive, so we write it as right by chance. Next week’s call is below, written under the rules we fixed this week.
Friday’s close $4,194 · The week +$54 (+1.3%) · 21K in Suez EGP 6,160 ·
Friday 9 October: 40% the bounce holds above the line ($4,160–$4,230), 35% profit-taking before the weekend, 25% a jump to the neckline. The close was $4,193.87, inside the first, and the confirming number (a close at $4,160 or above with the 10-year at 5.28% or below) was met: the yield closed at 5.24%. Right, in order, for the reason, the first time all three have met since Thursday 1 October, and on the first day with the wider yield band.
The weekly call (Saturday 3 October): 40% a slow continuation ($4,030–$4,150), 30% a break of $4,000 ($3,900–$4,030), 30% a bounce ($4,150–$4,300). The close of $4,194 is inside the third. By the rule: correct. By ranking: wrong, we put it third. By reason: the confirming number was a 2-year yield below 4.7%, and it closed at 4.80%. So right by chance, with 70% of our weight below $4,150, and we write that in the same bold type as the hits.
Why it went that way: on four days out of five the ounce sat exactly in the first box ($4,103–$4,165) and both causes we named (oil above $100, the yield above 5.2%) were at work. On Thursday night Trump said “no strike before the elections”, the 30-year auction was strong, and both causes broke in one night. The call was not wrong the day it was written; the event that breaks it happened, and we had given it 30%.
Record: 36 published · 32 correct · 91% (32 of 35 graded). With today’s report the published count is 37, and next week’s call is the only one open. Friday’s report and the map published before the close → · How grading works →
| Call | Close | Range | Order | Confirming number | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 5 | $4,140 | ✅ first | ✅ | ❌ dollar 102.16, ISM 54.9 | by chance |
| Tuesday 6 | $4,165 | ✅ second | ❌ | ✅ yield 5.29% | for the reason |
| Wednesday 7 | $4,111 | ✅ first | ✅ | ❌ yield 5.30 on the line | by chance |
| Thursday 8 | $4,133 | ✅ second | ❌ | ❌ yield 5.24, 0.01 below | by chance |
| Friday 9 | $4,194 | ✅ first | ✅ | ✅ yield 5.24% | for the reason |
| Weekly (3 Oct) | $4,194 | ✅ third | ❌ | ❌ 2-year 4.80% | by chance |
Six of six in range. Three in the right order. Two for the reason. That says two things plainly: we know where gold will close better than we know why, and this was a week of fixing the ruler, not the reading.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Friday’s close, per ounce | $4,194 | +$54 on the week |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,040 | unchanged |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,453 | unchanged |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,160 | unchanged |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,280 | unchanged |
➡️ 21K steady at EGP 6,160 (buy 6,100), from our counter reset at noon today; world markets are closed until Monday. If it is reset, the live number is at today’s prices. For the week: the ounce rose 1.3% and the gram 0.5% (from 6,130 to 6,160). The dollar rate implied in our counter price fell from 52.63 last Saturday to 52.21: the gram did not catch all of the rise, just as it did not catch all of the fall the week before. Our gram moves on two channels, and the second one dampens both.
Kitco’s survey of 2 October (13 analysts): 6 down · 3 up · 4 neutral. Gold rose $54. So 3 of 13 were right, and the bearish majority they had approached for the first time in months was wrong.
Us: our weekly call had 70% below $4,150, so we were with the wrong majority, and the 30% box is what saved us. No victory. The only difference is that we write “right by chance” by hand, and they write “majority bearish” and move on.
The new survey (9 October, 14 analysts): 7 up · 2 down · 5 neutral; Wall Street is near a bullish majority after the rebound. Main Street (206 votes): 45% up, 37% down. Their levels: $4,200 resistance, $4,230 “must be reclaimed for a base to form”, $4,300–$4,350 “no technical barriers before”, and Wednesday’s CPI is the first risk.
For the close of Friday 16 October 2026 · total range $400 · yield bands at least 0.12 · thresholds “at or above”
🇪🇬 21K in Suez at the end of next week: EGP 5,963 – 6,551, most likely EGP 6,169 – 6,375, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.21.
✏️ 65% of our weight is above $4,200: a bullish call, said plainly, the opposite of last week. Why is “continuation” the continuation of the bounce? Because rule three follows the cause, not the line: the two causes that pressed gold (oil and yields) reversed on Thursday, and next week stands on Iran’s answer and Wednesday’s CPI. The risk outside the whole range: Iran refuses and inflation runs hot in the same week; then $4,060 breaks and we write it as wrong.
Four of six calls this week were “right by chance”. Once, we would call it luck. Four times, we have to ask what they have in common. What they have in common is that gold was in the box we named, the cause we named was happening, and the number we chose to measure it with was too narrow or off to the side. The reading was right; the ruler was wrong.
So we changed the ruler twice in one week, and the first day with the new ruler came out “for the reason”. That does not mean we were clever and wronged ourselves. It means the rule we set did its job: it exposed a flaw in the method before it grew, instead of letting us pass with “close enough”.
What this means for you: the page that fixes its method in public twice in a week is more honest than the page that has never been wrong.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,000 | EGP 5,875 |
| $4,060 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 5,963 |
| $4,100 | EGP 6,022 |
| $4,150 (last week’s line) | EGP 6,096 |
| $4,194 (Friday’s close) | EGP 6,160 |
| $4,200 (the new line) | EGP 6,169 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,213 |
| $4,300 | EGP 6,316 |
| $4,340 (boundary of the third scenario) | EGP 6,375 |
| $4,400 | EGP 6,463 |
| $4,460 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,551 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4688), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,460 | Ceiling of the weekly call |
| $4,400 | 45-day average area |
| $4,340 | Boundary of the third scenario |
| $4,300 | First major resistance |
| $4,230 | The neckline, “must be reclaimed” |
| $4,207 | The week’s high |
| $4,200 | The new line that grades the call |
| $4,150 | The old line |
| $4,066 | The week’s low |
| $4,060 | Floor of the weekly call |
The number that grades next week is $4,200: above it our base case is right. The two numbers that move it are not in gold: Iran’s answer on the seven-day plan, and Wednesday’s CPI at 3:30 PM. Below $4,060 we write it as wrong.
Monday 12: Columbus Day in the US (bond market closed, gold trades) · Hammack (Cleveland Fed) 7:50 PM.
Tuesday 13: Waller 10:45 AM · Barkin 8:00 PM · Collins 11:00 PM.
Wednesday 14, 3:30 PM: September CPI, expected 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year
(previous 0.4% and 3.4%); core 0.2% on the month. Bowman 12:40 PM · Beige Book 9:00 PM.
Thursday 15, 3:30 PM: PPI expected 0.5% · jobless claims 197,000 · 4:30 PM:
retail sales expected 0.3% (previous 1.2%). Hammack 11:30 PM.
Friday 16, 6:30 AM: Fed Chair Warsh from Bangkok · midnight: the weekly close on
which the call is graded.
All week: Iran’s answer to the US proposal on reopening Hormuz within seven days, the biggest
number of the week without being a number.
Friday’s close ($4,193.87), last Friday’s close ($4,140.19), Treasury yields, oil, the dollar index, hike odds, Russian diesel and the week’s auctions from Trading Economics; the analyst survey (14 analysts: 7 up, 2 down, 5 neutral), the Main Street poll (206 votes), the week’s low of $4,066 and high of $4,207 and technical levels ($4,230, $4,300–$4,350, the 45-day average) from Kitco News, 9 October; the 2 October survey (13 analysts) from Kitco News; Trump’s statement and Pentagon planning from Axios (8 October); the seven-day Hormuz proposal and the Araghchi remark from Reuters via the Jerusalem Post (8 October); next week’s calendar and CPI consensus from Trading Economics; local prices from our own published price list, reset at noon on 10 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.