Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 12 October 2026
Gold opened the week quietly: the ounce is at $4,176 this morning, $18 below Friday’s close ($4,194), and $24 below the $4,200 line that separates the scenarios in our new weekly call. The US bond market is closed today (Columbus Day), so the number that has moved gold for two weeks, the yield, will not move. What is working today is oil and Yemen. This is the first of five days in grading the weekly call, and the big number comes the day after tomorrow: September CPI at 3:30 PM Cairo time.
Spot now $4,176 · Friday’s close $4,194 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,200 ·
We published on Saturday: 40% the bounce continues quietly ($4,200–$4,340), 35% hot inflation sends the yield back to its peak ($4,060–$4,200), 25% a Hormuz deal and softer inflation ($4,340–$4,460). Gold is at $4,176 now, inside the second scenario, $24 from the line.
But the number that confirms the second scenario is “the 10-year at 5.28% or above, or Brent at $108 or above”, and the yield is 5.24% and oil $104.6. So a Friday close here would be “right by chance” again. The first scenario needs a close above $4,200 with the yield between 5.10% and 5.28% and Brent below $105: the yield and oil are there; the price is $24 short.
There is no daily call to grade today: Friday’s was graded on Saturday (right for the reason), and today’s is graded tomorrow morning.
Record: 37 published · 32 correct · 91% (32 of 35 graded). With today’s report the published count becomes 38, with two calls open: today’s and the weekly. Saturday’s verdict and the weekly call → · How grading works →
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,176 | −$18 on Friday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,085 | up from 7,040 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,495 | up from 6,453 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,200 | up EGP 40 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,314 | up from 5,280 |
📈 21K at EGP 6,200 (buy 6,120), from our counter reset at 11:30 this morning, up EGP 40 on Saturday even though the ounce is down $18. If it is reset, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price rose to 52.78 (52.21 on Saturday): as we wrote on Saturday, the gram did not catch all of Friday’s rise, and the gap stored in the implied rate was released today. The gram always catches the ounce, at its own pace. Since Friday’s close ($4,194) the ounce is down 0.4% and the gram up 0.6%.
The upshot: the escalation moved from Hormuz to Yemen and Riyadh, and oil has not responded yet. The number we watch this week is the same: Brent above $108 turns the picture, below $95 turns it the other way.
Covering the Monday 12 October session — New York close · bond market closed, so today’s confirming numbers are oil and the dollar
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,087 – 6,295, most likely EGP 6,161 – 6,236, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.78.
✏️ Why is “quiet” first when rule three says continuation first? Because today’s continuation is the continuation of what followed Friday: a bounce that ended in a pause. There is no new driver (bonds closed), and the old driver (oil) is moving in the calming direction. And because today’s confirming number is oil rather than the yield, the bands are written wide: at least $4 in Brent.
For two weeks every report has said: the number that moves gold is the bond yield. Today the bond market is closed. So gold is running without its main engine, coasting on Friday’s momentum with a light push from oil.
That teaches something about holidays: the moves are small, but when they come they are treacherous, because liquidity is thin. So today’s ranges are narrower than usual, and the confirming number has switched from the yield to oil, because that is the only thing working.
What this means for you: if someone tells you today “gold moved because of the Fed”, ask: what did the Fed say, with the bond market closed?
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,060 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 6,028 |
| $4,100 | EGP 6,087 |
| $4,150 (the old line) | EGP 6,161 |
| $4,176 (now) | EGP 6,200 |
| $4,194 (Friday’s close) | EGP 6,227 |
| $4,200 (the new line) | EGP 6,236 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,280 |
| $4,300 | EGP 6,384 |
| $4,340 (boundary of the weekly call’s third scenario) | EGP 6,443 |
| $4,460 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,622 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4847), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,340 | Boundary of the weekly call’s third scenario |
| $4,240 | Ceiling of today’s second scenario |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,207 | Last week’s high |
| $4,200 | The line that grades the weekly call, and the ceiling of today’s first scenario |
| $4,150 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $4,100 | Floor of today’s third scenario |
| $4,066 | Last week’s low |
| $4,060 | Floor of the weekly call |
$4,200 is the number of the week. Gold is $24 below it on a day without an engine. What settles the direction is not today but Wednesday at 3:30 PM (CPI) and Iran’s answer. Brent above $106 today is an early signal.
Monday: Columbus Day (bond market closed) · 7:50 PM Hammack (Cleveland Fed).
Tuesday: Waller 10:45 AM · Barkin 8:00 PM · Collins 11:00 PM.
Wednesday 3:30 PM: September CPI, expected 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year ·
Beige Book 9:00 PM.
Thursday 3:30 PM: PPI and jobless claims · 4:30 PM: retail sales.
Friday midnight: the weekly close on which the weekly call is graded.
Spot price, Friday’s close ($4,193.87), oil, Treasury yields, the dollar index, hike odds, the Riyadh strikes, the tanker near Sohar, Russian diesel, the strategic reserve and the bond-market closure from Trading Economics; Michigan inflation expectations from Trading Economics; the week’s calendar and CPI consensus from Trading Economics; technical levels ($4,230, $4,207, $4,066) from Kitco News (9 October); local prices from our own published price list, reset at 11:30 AM on 12 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.