Home › Gold forecasts › Tuesday 13 October 2026
Gold closed Monday at $4,172, inside the scenario we ranked first and in the right order, but the two numbers we said would confirm it crossed their limits by a hair: Brent closed at 106.65 against a 106 ceiling, and the dollar index at 102.59 against 102.5. So by the rule: right by chance. This morning the ounce is at $4,188, up $16, because the bond market came back from its holiday and the yield fell below 5.2%. Day two of five in grading the weekly call, with gold still $12 below the $4,200 line, and September CPI tomorrow at 3:30 PM.
Spot now $4,188 · Monday’s close $4,172 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,200 ·
We published: 40% a quiet day below the line ($4,150–$4,200), 35% gold back above $4,200, 25% Yemen lights up oil. The close was $4,171.88, inside the first, in the right order.
The confirming number was “Brent between $102 and $106 and the dollar index below 102.5”. Brent closed at $106.65, a two-week high after the Riyadh airport death toll reached 16, and the dollar at 102.59. Both crossed by a hair. By the rule: right by chance.
And let us say plainly what happened: oil rose and the dollar rose, which is the third scenario’s story, and gold did fall from $4,194 to $4,172 — it just never reached $4,150. The reading that won on price is not the reading that won on cause. That is exactly what the confirming-number rule exists to expose.
Correction number three in two weeks: a “quiet” scenario cannot be confirmed with absolute levels (Brent below 106), because quiet means “nothing moved much”. From today, a quiet scenario is confirmed by the size of the move: Brent under 3%, the dollar under 0.5% and the yield under 0.10 on the day. Under that rule Monday would have been “for the reason” (Brent +1.9%, dollar +0.35%). But the rule applies from today, not retroactively.
Record: 38 published · 33 correct · 92% (33 of 36 graded; the weekly call and today’s are still open). Monday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,188 the ounce is still inside the second scenario of Saturday’s call (35% hot inflation, $4,060–$4,200), $12 from the line, and that box’s confirming number (the yield at 5.28% or above, or Brent at $108) is not met: the yield is 5.20% and oil $105. The first scenario (40%, $4,200–$4,340) has every condition met (the yield between 5.10% and 5.28%, Brent below $105) except the price itself. So the whole week stands on one number tomorrow at 3:30 PM. The verdict is at midnight on Friday.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,188 | +$16 on Monday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,085 | unchanged |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,495 | unchanged |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,200 | unchanged |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,314 | unchanged |
➡️ 21K steady at EGP 6,200 (buy 6,120), from our counter reset today. If it is reset again, the live number is at today’s prices. The dollar rate implied in our counter price is 52.62 (52.78 yesterday): the ounce rose $12 and the gram did not move, so the gap is stored again. And the bank dollar in Egypt rose today to EGP 52.79, which puts our implied jeweller’s dollar below the bank rate by 0.32% — an unusual position, since the trade normally prices at a premium to the bank, not under it. At the bank rate a raw 21K gram works out at EGP 6,220 rather than 6,200: a 20-pound gap, which is the room the gram has to rise if the ounce simply stays where it is. Since Friday’s close ($4,194) the ounce is down 0.1% and the gram up 0.6% (from 6,160 to 6,200).
Covering the Tuesday 13 October session — New York close · the yield is working again, so it confirms again
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,070 – 6,277, most likely EGP 6,210 – 6,277, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 52.62.
✏️ Why is the upside first today? Because rule three follows the cause: the engine (the yield) is working again and working in gold’s direction, and the session opened on that same move. If tomorrow’s CPI runs hot, all of this flips in a minute — but that is tomorrow’s call, not today’s.
Yesterday we wrote a quiet scenario and gave it a confirming number: Brent below 106 and the dollar below 102.5. Both crossed by a hair and gold stayed in the box. So the number we set was not measuring quiet; it was measuring a level.
The difference matters: a “trend continues” scenario is confirmed by a level (the yield above X). A “quiet” scenario is confirmed by the size of the move (nothing moved more than X). That is the third correction in two weeks, published like the two before it. The rule learns from every error, and we write the lesson instead of writing “close enough”.
What this means for you: when someone says “the market is quiet today”, ask: quiet relative to what? If they have no number, that is an impression, not a reading.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,060 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 6,011 |
| $4,100 | EGP 6,070 |
| $4,150 (first support) | EGP 6,144 |
| $4,172 (Monday’s close) | EGP 6,176 |
| $4,188 (now) | EGP 6,200 |
| $4,200 (the line) | EGP 6,218 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,262 |
| $4,300 | EGP 6,366 |
| $4,340 (boundary of the weekly call’s third scenario) | EGP 6,425 |
| $4,460 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,603 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4804), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,340 | Boundary of the weekly call’s third scenario |
| $4,240 | Ceiling of today’s first scenario |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,207 | Last week’s high |
| $4,200 | The line that grades the weekly call |
| $4,195 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $4,150 | Floor of today’s second scenario |
| $4,100 | Floor of today’s third scenario |
| $4,066 | Last week’s low |
Tonight: the yield below 5.22% means gold above the line; above 5.34% means gold below $4,150. And tomorrow at 3:30 PM comes the number that grades the whole week: inflation above 0.6% on the month sends the yield back to its peak, below 0.5% opens the road to $4,300.
Tuesday 10:45 AM Waller · 8:00 PM Barkin · 11:00 PM Collins.
Wednesday 12:40 PM Bowman · 3:30 PM — September CPI
(expected 0.6% on the month, 3.6% on the year) · 9:00 PM Beige Book.
Thursday 3:30 PM: PPI and jobless claims · 4:30 PM: retail sales.
Friday midnight: the weekly close on which the weekly call is graded.
Spot price, Monday’s close ($4,171.88), oil (close $106.65), the dollar (close 102.59), Treasury yields, hike odds, the Riyadh toll, Washington’s position on Yemen, the violated energy ceasefire and the speakers’ times from Trading Economics; the CPI consensus and the week’s calendar from Trading Economics; technical levels ($4,230, $4,207, $4,066) from Kitco News (9 October); local prices from our own published price list, reset on 13 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.