Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 14 October 2026
Gold closed Tuesday at $4,161, inside the scenario we ranked second, so the order was wrong. But its confirming number was met under the quiet rule we had published that same morning, so the verdict is right for the reason, wrong on the order. This morning the ounce is at $4,142, down another $20 for a third consecutive session, with the whole market waiting for 3:30 PM: September CPI. And with it a note on how to read our record: the rate we publish is measured on the calls that have been graded, not on everything published.
Spot now $4,142 · Tuesday’s close $4,161 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,180 ·
We published: 40% yields fall and gold reclaims the line ($4,195–$4,240), 35% a pause below the line ($4,150–$4,195), 25% Yemen and the dollar push gold down ($4,100–$4,150). The close was $4,161.51, inside the second. Right range, wrong order.
The second box’s confirming number was “the 10-year between 5.22% and 5.34% — or a daily move under 3% in Brent, 0.5% in the dollar and 0.10 in the yield”. The first condition failed: the yield closed at 5.19%, below the band. The second was met in full: Brent went from 106.65 to 105.69, −0.9%; the dollar index from 102.59 to 102.2, −0.38%; the yield moved 0.01. So the verdict is right for the reason.
This is the first live test of the quiet rule we wrote yesterday morning. Under the old rule — absolute levels — the verdict would have been “wrong”, because the yield left its band, even though the day genuinely was quiet and nothing moved. Under the new rule the verdict came out right. The correction works, and this is the first practical evidence of it.
But the order was wrong, and here is why: we said the upside was most likely because the yield had broken below 5.2%. The yield did stay below 5.2% — and gold fell instead of rising. The reason is that oil and the dollar sat still, and the market preferred to close positions before CPI rather than open new ones. The lesson, written down: before a big number, “the market waits” beats “the engine is on your side”.
A note on how to read the record: the rate we publish (92%) is measured on the calls that have been graded — 34 of 37 — not on everything published (40), because some calls are still open: the weekly call and today’s. The two numbers are different and easy to read for one another, so from today we print all three together everywhere.
Record: 40 published · 37 graded · 34 correct · 92% (the weekly call and today’s are still open). Tuesday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,142 the ounce sits inside the second scenario of Saturday’s call (35% hot inflation, $4,060–$4,200), and that box’s confirming number (the yield at 5.28% or above, or Brent at $108 or above) is still not met: the yield is 5.20% and oil $106.5. The first scenario (40%, $4,200–$4,340) is now $58 away, and its second condition (Brent below $105) broke today after the strike on Dhahran. So both boxes are open on price and shut on the number, and the whole week stands on one print in a few hours. The verdict is at midnight on Friday, not before.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,142 | −$20 on Tuesday’s close |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,062 | −23 |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,474 | −21 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,180 | −20 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,297 | −17 |
➡️ 21K down 20 pounds to EGP 6,180 (buy 6,120, unchanged), from our counter reset today. If it is reset again, the live number is at today’s prices. 📍 The figure that matters here: the ounce is down $46 from Friday’s close and the gram is down only 20 pounds. So the dollar rate implied in our counter price rose from 52.62 to 53.04, back above the bank rate (52.79) by 0.47%, one day after sitting below it. 💵 In plain terms: yesterday there were 20 pounds of room for the gram to rise; today the gram is 29 pounds above what the bank rate implies (a raw 21K gram at the bank rate works out at EGP 6,151). The gram has not come down by all it owes. That is not a fault of the shop — it is how the local market behaves: it rises quickly and falls on instalments. But if the ounce simply stays put, that gap is what settles over the next day or two. Since Friday’s close ($4,194) the ounce is down 1.2% and the gram down only 0.3%.
Covering the Wednesday 14 October session — New York close · today the number that rules is core, not headline
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning: EGP 6,058 – 6,371, most likely EGP 6,162 – 6,267, assuming the implied dollar rate holds at 53.04.
✏️ Why is the middle scenario first on a day like this? Because the big number arrives with the market already positioned for it. The large move happens when the print contradicts the pricing, and that possibility is split across both tails (35% + 25%). If the print lands on consensus, most of what was going to happen already happened over the past three sessions.
At 3:30 PM two numbers land, not one. Headline inflation (expected 0.6% on the month) counts everything, petrol and food and rent. Core inflation (expected 0.2%) strips out petrol and food and leaves the rest.
The Fed decides on core, not headline. The logic holds up: petrol rises and falls for reasons outside a central bank’s reach — war, OPEC, the Strait of Hormuz — so hiking every time petrol rises would damage the economy without touching the price of petrol. Core — services, rents, labour — is what tells you whether inflation has settled inside the economy or not.
That matters today in particular: Brent has been above $105 for two weeks, so the headline figure is all but certain to run hot. If you see a headline tomorrow reading “US inflation climbs to 3.7%” and conclude that gold is about to collapse, you have read half the picture. The number that moves the yield — and moves gold behind the yield — is core. Read the second line of the story, not the headline.
| If the ounce is | 21K per gram works out near |
|---|---|
| $4,060 (floor of the weekly call) | EGP 6,058 |
| $4,100 | EGP 6,117 |
| $4,130 (today’s dividing line) | EGP 6,162 |
| $4,142 (now) | EGP 6,180 |
| $4,161 (Tuesday’s close) | EGP 6,208 |
| $4,200 (the line) | EGP 6,267 |
| $4,230 (the neckline) | EGP 6,312 |
| $4,270 (ceiling of today’s third scenario) | EGP 6,371 |
| $4,340 (boundary of the weekly call’s third scenario) | EGP 6,475 |
| $4,460 (ceiling of the weekly call) | EGP 6,655 |
📍 Raw metal at today’s local conversion factor (1.4920), before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
| $4,340 | Boundary of the weekly call’s third scenario |
| $4,270 | Ceiling of today’s third scenario |
| $4,230 | The neckline |
| $4,207 | Last week’s high |
| $4,200 | The line that grades the weekly call |
| $4,161 | Tuesday’s close |
| $4,130 | The line between the middle box and the downside |
| $4,100 | Support |
| $4,066 | Last week’s low |
| $4,060 | Floor of the weekly call |
Today at 3:30 PM: core at 0.2% or below means gold holds the box or above it; core at 0.3% or above means gold below $4,130. The yield is the translator: 5.12% is the threshold for a move above $4,200, and 5.30% the threshold for a break below $4,130.
Wednesday 12:40 PM Bowman · 3:30 PM — September CPI
(expected 0.6% on the month, 3.6% on the year, core 0.2% on the month) · Barkin during the day ·
9:00 PM Beige Book.
Thursday 3:30 PM: PPI and jobless claims · 4:30 PM: retail sales.
Friday: Warsh speaks at the IMF–World Bank meetings · midnight: the weekly
close on which the weekly call is graded.
Spot price, Tuesday’s close ($4,161.51), oil (close $105.69 and $106.53 today), the dollar (close 102.2), Treasury yields, hike odds, the strike on Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, the coalition’s ground offensive, the tanker attacks around Hormuz, the Williams, Hammack and Waller remarks, Goldman Sachs on Russian diesel, the IMF growth warning, the speakers’ times and the CPI consensus from Trading Economics; technical levels ($4,230, $4,207, $4,066) from Kitco News (9 October); local prices from our own published price list, reset on 14 October.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.