Home › Gold forecasts › Saturday 24 October 2026
Gold closed the week at $3,993.96, down $172 (−4.14%), the worst week since early June and the first weekly close below $4,000 since July. The weekly call we published last Saturday closed inside the third box ($3,980–$4,080): right range, wrong order (we ranked it third at 25%) and wrong number (we said the yield at 5.22% or above; it closed at 4.99%). So: right by luck. And the story we wrote was wrong at the root: we said “equities bounce and gold pays the price”; what happened was the opposite — equities fell and gold fell with them, because the market was selling everything. Six forecasts were graded this week; below is the full table, correction six, a tour of what analysts from America to Australia are saying, and next week’s call — Fed week — with the trade dollar at its centre. And the gram? EGP 6,290, the same figure as last week, while the ounce fell 4%.
Friday close $3,994 · Week −$172 (−4.14%) · Trade dollar EGP 55.98 ·
The weekly call (published Saturday 17 October): 40% the cap holds ($4,080–$4,200) · 35% fear breaks the line ($4,200–$4,330) · 25% equities bounce and gold pays the price ($3,980–$4,080). The week closed at $3,993.96 — inside the third, only $14 above its floor. Right range, wrong order.
The third box’s confirming number was “the yield at 5.22% or above” (0.135 away at the time of writing, under correction five). The yield went the opposite way: from 5.085% to 4.988%, down 10 basis points on the week and 19 on Thursday alone. The condition was not met. Verdict: right by luck.
More important than the verdict: the story was wrong. We said gold would fall if “equities bounced and money went back to stocks”. What happened: the S&P 500 fell 1.7% on the week, the yield fell, and gold fell 4.1%. All three fell together — that is not “gold paying for a bounce”, that is the liquidity chain: funds selling gold to cover equity losses. We found it and named it on Thursday, but the weekly call was written with only two chains (rates and fear). The range was right because the box was wide, not because we understood.
Friday’s daily call: we published 40% hot inflation expectations and the liquidation runs on ($3,950–$4,010) · 35% the number as expected and gold circles ($4,010–$4,060) · 25% a cool number and a bounce ($4,060–$4,110). The close was $3,993.96 — inside the first, and the order was right. But the confirming number was “five-year inflation expectations at 3.6% or above” — and the print was 3.5%, exactly as expected (that was the second box’s condition). Gold fell not on the number but because Brent jumped 3.1% to $116.72, the highest close in four years. Verdict: right by luck — the first time this week the order was right and the number wrong.
⚖️ A note on the reading: our primary source gives Friday’s close as $3,993.96; a second source gives a late reading of $3,995.81, and gold futures closed at $4,010. The difference does not change either verdict (all sit inside Friday’s first box and the weekly third box). We go with the primary source, as every day.
Record: 49 published · 47 graded · 43 correct · 91% (the new weekly call is open). Friday’s map → · How grading works →
| Forecast | Close | Range | Order | Confirming number | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 | 4,140.90 | ✅ third | ❌ | ❌ oil rose instead of falling | Right by luck |
| Tue 20 | 4,124.73 | ✅ second | ❌ | ✅ the quiet rule | Right for the reason |
| Wed 21 | 4,141.10 | ✅ second | ❌ | ✅ inventories −3.06M | Right for the reason |
| Thu 22 | 4,024.82 | ❌ $5 below the lowest box | ➖ direction right | ✅ Brent 113.17 above 112 | Wrong |
| Fri 23 | 3,993.96 | ✅ first | ✅ | ❌ Michigan 3.5%, not 3.6% | Right by luck |
| Weekly (17 Oct) | 3,993.96 | ✅ third | ❌ | ❌ yield 4.99, not 5.22 | Right by luck |
Read this table carefully, because it carries three pieces of news:
🟢 The good news: range 5 of 6, confirming number 3 of 6 — better than last week (2 of 6). Correction five (the threshold must sit away from the price) worked: not one verdict this week was decided by a hair.
🔴 The bad news: the order was right in 1 of 6. We ranked the break first on Tuesday and Wednesday and lost; we ranked the cap first in the weekly and lost. The problem is no longer “we favour the upside” as last week — it is that we rank on logic (oil has a reason to rise) rather than behaviour (support held six times). And when the behaviour changed on Thursday, it changed by more than our boxes.
⚫ The third piece, the most important: this week ran on a third chain we did not know when we wrote the weekly call: the liquidity chain. Equities down, yield down, gold down. With only two chains (rates and fear), Thursday is impossible to forecast. That is why correction six, below, is not a luxury.
The problem in numbers: on Thursday we put the lowest box $50 under the price (−1.3%), and the day fell $116 (−2.8%). On Friday we made it $60, and the day fell $31 — enough. So the box has to be cut for the chain that is running, not for the average.
The rule from today: when the liquidity signature is showing at the time of writing (equities down and the yield down and gold down in the same session or week), the first box in the direction of the move widens: at least $60 in the daily, and at least $150 in the weekly. When the signature disappears, the boxes return to their normal size ($40–$50). The rule follows the market; it does not argue with it.
And the sign that separates liquidity from fear: in real fear the yield falls and gold rises. In a liquidity squeeze the yield falls and gold falls. The yield is what separates them — not equities. This amends last week’s “look at equities” rule: look at equities and the yield together.
The earlier rules stand: 1 thresholds are “at or above/below” · 2 yield bands at least 0.12 wide · 3 the quiet scenario is confirmed by the size of the move · 4 on a release day the condition is the release plus the close · 5 thresholds sit 1% / 0.06 away from the price.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly close, per ounce | $3,994 | −$172 on last Friday (−4.14%) |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 55.98 | +2.66 in a week (from 53.32) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,188 | unchanged |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,290 | unchanged |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,391 | unchanged |
➡️ 21K flat at EGP 6,290 — from today’s counter reset (11:19 AM), and 6,250 a week ago (+0.6% on the week). The official price is at today’s prices. 💱 The implied trade dollar is 55.98 — computed on Friday’s close ($3,994). Our last documented market figures: a bank-dollar average of 55.30 and a market trade dollar of 55.63 (the Souq El Dahab app, Friday 11:45 AM), with the ounce at $4,025 at the time. So the gap between 55.98 and 55.30 (about 1.2%) is partly that the gram has not yet caught Friday night’s fall ($31, about 48 pounds), and partly that the trade prices the dollar ahead of the banks. Monday morning settles it: either the gram comes down, or the banks go up. 📅 The whole week in numbers: the ounce from $4,166 to $3,994 (−4.14%) · the trade dollar from 53.32 to 55.98 (+5.0%) · the gram from 6,250 to 6,290 (+0.6%). In detail: the ounce’s fall was worth −259 pounds on the gram, and the dollar’s rise +299. The dollar erased the worst week for gold in months, and added 40 pounds on top. The drivers: Brent +6.2% to $116.72 (the highest close in four years) · the yield from 5.085% to 4.988% (−10 basis points) · the S&P 500 −1.7% · the dollar index 101.6 (roughly flat). And hot money: $1.84 billion left Treasury bills in four sessions (505 + 245 + 376.5 + 711).
This week we read analysts’ sites and reports from every continent before writing a single number. Here is what we found, by name and date — and what we did not find, because “not found” is information too.
What we take from the tour: most professionals see next week as down to sideways, and none of the big houses sees a strong rebound before 4,230 is cleared. The supports that keep recurring: 3,985 / 3,970 / 3,946 / 3,890 / 3,830. Resistance: 4,060–4,075 / 4,100 / 4,200–4,230. And in the background, numbers nobody disputes: speculators’ net long on COMEX is still 199,865 contracts (down only 8,000 in the week to 20 October) — so there is still a lot that can be sold; central banks bought 345 tonnes in the first half and ETFs took in $30.7 billion in Q3 (CIBC) — so there is a buyer underneath.
Fed week: the decision on Wednesday 28 at 2 PM ET (a hold expected at roughly 85–90%, a December hike priced above 85%). Then Thursday 29: Q3 GDP (3.1% expected) and September PCE (core 3.1% y/y expected). Friday 30: the employment cost index. In the background: Brent at $116.72 (a four-year high) and Hormuz, the AI-stock sell-off, and a liquidation that is not finished. So this call is written under correction six: the first box in the direction of the move is $150 wide.
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour, not logic: six down sessions out of seven, the liquidity chain running, and professionals bearish. So continuation first — and if the market proves us wrong with a bounce, we say so next Saturday, as we have every week.
🇪🇬 21K at the end of next week — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 55.98: EGP 6,032 – 6,614, most likely 6,032 – 6,268
Up one pound (56.98): EGP 6,139 – 6,732, most likely 6,139 – 6,380
Down one pound (54.98): EGP 5,924 – 6,496, most likely 5,924 – 6,156
With dollar pressure reading “outflow” four sessions running ($1.84 billion), the first or the second. And at 6,290 the gram
now sits above every “most likely” box — so if the ounce falls and the dollar holds, the gram falls this time.
✏️ Every threshold carries its distance from the current price (correction five), and the first box is wider than usual (correction six). If you find a threshold close to the price or a narrow box, that is our fault — write to us.
This week the dollar was the whole story: the ounce fell 4% and the gram rose. So this table is the most important thing on the page if your gram is what matters to you.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 55 | 56 | 57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,830 (floor of the first box) | 5,926 | 6,034 | 6,141 |
| $3,900 (SocGen and Kitco’s deeper target) | 6,034 | 6,144 | 6,254 |
| $3,980 (the first dividing line) | 6,158 | 6,270 | 6,382 |
| $3,994 (the weekly close) | 6,180 | 6,292 | 6,404 |
| $4,080 (the second dividing line) | 6,313 | 6,428 | 6,542 |
| $4,200 (the call’s ceiling and the line) | 6,498 | 6,617 | 6,735 |
📍 Read it like this: our gram at 6,290 is exactly the “3,994 × 56” cell. If gold falls to $3,900 and the dollar stays at 56, the gram is 6,144 (down 146). If gold falls to $3,900 and the dollar rises to 57, the gram is 6,254 (down only 36). If gold rises to $4,080 at 56, the gram is 6,428. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax. Dollar pressure is published every day after the Exchange session, and we will carry it in every report.
Last week we said “the order is our weakness”. This week the order is still weak (1 of 6), but we found out why: we were reading the market with two chains — rates and fear — and the market was running on a third. When equities fall on their valuations (not on a war), funds sell gold to cover the losses, and the yield and gold fall together. With two chains, Thursday is “impossible”. With three, it is the first possibility.
And the second lesson matters more if you are in Egypt: the ounce fell $172 in a week, and your gram rose 40 pounds. If you were following global gold alone, you would have misread the market seven days running. From today the trade dollar sits at the centre of every call, the two-way table is in every report, and dollar pressure from the Exchange is in every day. In Egypt the question is not “where is gold going” — it is “where is gold going, where is the dollar going, and which of them is faster”.
And what this means for you next week: the Fed on Wednesday night. If it holds and says nothing about December, gold breathes. If it holds and says “December is possible”, the liquidation continues. Either way your gram answers to the dollar first — and the dollar is still rising.
| $4,230 | The bottom is confirmed if cleared (Saxo) |
| $4,200 | The line and the ceiling of the weekly call |
| $4,080 | The second dividing line |
| $4,060–$4,075 | The first resistance (the broken support) |
| $4,000 | The psychological number |
| $3,994 | The weekly close |
| $3,985 | The rising trendline (Saxo) |
| $3,980 | The first dividing line |
| $3,975 | The week’s low |
| $3,946 | Kitco support |
| $3,890 | Kitco’s deeper target |
| $3,830 | Floor of the first box and SocGen’s target |
| EGP 55.98 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 55.30 | Our last bank-dollar average |
| EGP 56 | If it holds above this next week, an ounce at 3,900 does not take the gram below 6,140 |
Next week: Brent 118 or the S&P 7,540 means gold below 3,980. A move under 2% means 3,980–4,080. Brent 113 or the dollar 100.5 means above 4,080. And the Fed on Wednesday at 2 PM ET. And the gram answers to the dollar before the ounce.
Sunday 25: Brazil’s presidential run-off (a factor for emerging markets) · Egypt: the first Exchange session
after $1.84 billion left — the dollar-pressure figure after the session.
Monday 26: Chicago Fed index 2:30 PM · Dallas Fed 4:30 PM.
Tuesday 27: durable goods 2:30 PM (+0.6% expected) · consumer confidence 4:00 PM (80.5 expected) · the Fed
meeting begins.
Wednesday 28, 8:00 PM: the Fed decision (a hold at 4.00% expected) · 8:30 PM Powell’s press conference
— the most important hour of the week.
Thursday 29, 2:30 PM: Q3 GDP (3.1% expected) + September PCE (core 3.1% y/y expected) + jobless
claims · 4:30 PM crude inventories.
Friday 30, 2:30 PM: the employment cost index · midnight: the weekly close and the verdict on this call.
(The jobs report is the week after, on 6 November.)
Friday’s close ($3,993.96), the week’s low, the oil and inflation headlines, hike odds and the calendar from Trading Economics; Friday’s closes for Brent ($116.72), the S&P 500 (7,623.68), the 10-year yield (4.988%) and the dollar index (101.6) from Investing.com; Michigan (3.5%) and the flash PMIs from Trading Economics; the weekly analyst survey, the PM report and the HSBC, CIBC and “$4,000 breaks” articles from Kitco (23, 22 and 20 October); Saxo Bank’s Commodity Weekly of 23 October (Ole Hansen); Khaleej Times (Dubai, 23 October); Westpac via Metals Mine (June 2026); the Arabic analyst poll from Investing Saudi Arabia (18 October); speculative positioning from the CFTC COMEX report of 20 October; foreign trading in government debt ($711 million on Thursday, $1.84 billion over four sessions) from Egyptian Exchange data via Youm7 (the Gold Bullion report), Hapi Journal, Cairo 24 and Khas An Masr; the bank-dollar average (55.30) and the market trade dollar (55.63) from the Souq El Dahab app, Friday 23 October, 11:45 AM; the implied trade dollar (55.98) computed from our counter price and Friday’s close; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 24 October at 11:19 AM.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.