Home › Gold forecasts › Monday 26 October 2026
Gold opened the week at $4,015, up $21 (+0.5%) on Friday’s close ($3,994), the first green morning after six down sessions out of seven. The reason is not gold itself: Brent fell 1.9% to $114.45 from the highest close in four years, after reports that the Trump administration is weighing an Iran deal or resumed strikes after the 3 November midterms. The oil that hit gold last week took a breath, and gold breathed with it. Ahead of us is a week built around one event: the Fed decision on Wednesday at 2 PM ET. In Egypt: the gram rose 30 pounds to EGP 6,320 with the midday counter reset, and the trade dollar held at 55.95 — so those 30 pounds came from the ounce this time, not the dollar. And dollar pressure on Sunday: neutral — the first day in five that foreigners did not sell.
Spot now $4,015 · Trade dollar EGP 55.95 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,320 ·
The weekly call (published Saturday 24 October): 40% the liquidation runs on below $4,000 ($3,830–$3,980) · 35% the pause after the liquidation ($3,980–$4,080) · 25% the bounce from the demand zone ($4,080–$4,200). The ounce today is $4,015 — inside the second, $35 above its floor, with the week so far at +0.5%.
Where are the conditions? The first needs Brent at $118 or above — Brent is $114.45, 3.1% away and moving the other way. Or the S&P 500 at 7,540 or below — it is 7,649 (1.4% away). The third needs Brent at $113 or below (1.3% away and moving towards it) or the dollar index at 100.5 (1.3% away). The second needs the week’s move under 2%, and we are at 0.5%.
So after one day, the box we ranked first (liquidation) is the one whose condition is furthest. That is not a verdict — it is one day of five, and last week gold fell 4% in a week that began quietly. But we note it: if the week closes in the second or the third, the order will be wrong for a fourth straight week, and the problem we named on Saturday (we rank on logic, not behaviour) is still with us.
Record: 50 published · 47 graded · 43 correct · 91% (the weekly call and today’s are open). The weekly call → · How grading works →
Wednesday 2 PM ET is the whole story. The market prices a hold at about 90% and a December hike at about 80%. What moves gold is not the decision — it is the sentence Powell says about December. “The data will decide” (the usual line) = the second box. “A hike is possible”, said clearly = the first. A hint that oil is transitory = the third. Before it, Tuesday’s consumer confidence; after it, Thursday’s GDP and PCE (core 3.1% expected). And in the background, Iran: “a deal or strikes after 3 November” — which likely means a week without a decision in oil, and that favours the second box.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,015 | +$21 on Friday’s close ($3,994) |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 55.95 | steady (55.98 on Saturday) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,222 | +34 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,320 | +30 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,417 | +26 |
➡️ 21K up 30 pounds to EGP 6,320 — from today’s counter reset (12:00 noon, with the ounce at $4,015). This time the arithmetic is simple: the ounce rose $21 (worth about +33 pounds) and the dollar held (−3). The gram moved with gold for the first time in a week. The official price is at today’s prices. 💱 The implied trade dollar is 55.95 — roughly Saturday’s figure (55.98). So the question we left on Saturday (“either the gram comes down or the banks go up”) was settled a third way: the ounce rose, the gram rose, and the dollar stayed put. Our last documented bank figures: an average of 55.30 and a market trade dollar of 55.63 (Souq El Dahab, Friday 11:45 AM) — our trade premium is about 1.2%, above normal, and if the banks do not move up this week that gap closes from the gram’s side. 📊 Dollar pressure (Sunday 25): neutral — net foreign and Arab buying of just $171.7 thousand (Hapi Journal, Egyptian Exchange data). After four sessions of outflow ($1.84 billion), Sunday was the first day without selling. One day is not a trend — but it is the first sign the exit wave is calming, and we track it daily.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 55 | 56 | 57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,950 (floor of today’s first scenario) | 6,112 | 6,223 | 6,334 |
| $3,990 (the first dividing line) | 6,174 | 6,286 | 6,398 |
| $4,015 (now) | 6,212 | 6,325 | 6,438 |
| $4,050 (the second dividing line) | 6,266 | 6,380 | 6,494 |
| $4,090 (ceiling of today’s scenarios) | 6,328 | 6,443 | 6,558 |
📍 Our gram at 6,320 is roughly the “4,015 × 56” cell. If the Fed takes gold to $3,950 with the dollar steady, the gram is 6,223. If it lifts it to $4,090 with the dollar steady, 6,443. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Monday 26 October session — New York close · no major scheduled release, so the condition sits on the drivers under correction five (distance printed beside each number) · the liquidity signature is absent, so the boxes are normal size
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 55.95: EGP 6,217 – 6,438, most likely 6,280 – 6,375
Up one pound (56.95): EGP 6,328 – 6,553, most likely 6,392 – 6,489
Down one pound (54.95): EGP 6,106 – 6,323, most likely 6,168 – 6,261
With dollar pressure “neutral” on Sunday, the first assumption is the closest for the first time in a week.
✏️ The pause is first, not the break — after four days with the break first and one win. Today’s behaviour: oil down, gold up, equities steady. If the market breaks again today, we say so tomorrow and put the break back first.
Last week we said “the dollar matters more than the ounce”, because the dollar moved 2.66 pounds and the ounce $172, and the dollar won. Today it is the reverse: the dollar is flat, the ounce moved $21, and the gram rose 30 pounds with it. So the rule is neither “the dollar matters more” nor “the ounce matters more” — the rule is: whichever is moving is in charge of the gram. And to know which will move, watch dollar pressure (are foreigners selling or not) and watch oil (it has driven the ounce for two weeks).
And why is the pause first today, after the break was first for four days? Because the behaviour changed: oil is falling, equities are not being sold, and gold is up. The rule we wrote on Saturday says “rank on behaviour, not logic”. Logic says “the Fed will hike in December, so gold falls”. Behaviour says “two days before a decision nobody moves”. We follow the behaviour.
And what this means for you: this whole week turns on one sentence on Wednesday night. If your decision to buy or sell is not urgent, Wednesday night settles it. If it is urgent, the gram today is 6,320 at a dollar of 56 — and if the dollar came down to the banks’ 55.30, the same ounce would give a gram of 6,246.
| $4,230 | The bottom is confirmed (Saxo) |
| $4,200 | The line and the weekly ceiling |
| $4,090 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,080 | The weekly dividing line |
| $4,050 | The line between the pause and the bounce |
| $4,015 | The price now |
| $3,994 | Friday’s close |
| $3,990 | The line between the break and the pause |
| $3,980 | Floor of the weekly second box |
| $3,950 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $3,830 | Floor of the weekly first box |
| EGP 55.95 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 55.30 | Our last bank-dollar average |
| EGP 56 | If it holds above this all week, a fall in the ounce does not reach the gram in full |
Today: a quiet day by the ruler means $3,990–$4,050. Brent 115.6 or the S&P 7,564 means below 3,990. Brent 113.3 or the yield 4.93 means above 4,050. And on Wednesday at 2 PM ET, Powell’s sentence about December rules the week.
Monday 2:30 PM: the Chicago Fed index · 4:30 PM: Dallas Fed · after the Egyptian session: the
dollar-pressure figure.
Tuesday 2:30 PM: durable goods (+0.6% expected) · 4:00 PM: consumer confidence (80.5 expected) ·
the Fed meeting begins.
Wednesday 8:00 PM: the Fed decision · 8:30 PM Powell’s press conference.
Thursday 2:30 PM: GDP + PCE · Friday: the employment cost index, and the weekly verdict at midnight.
The spot price ($4,015), Friday’s close ($3,993.96), Brent ($114.45), the yield (4.99%), the dollar (101.8), the S&P 500 (7,649), the Iran and Fed headlines, hike odds and the week’s calendar from Trading Economics; Brazil’s election result and the real’s reaction from the Rio Times; foreign and Arab trading in government debt ($171.7 thousand of net buying on Sunday) from Egyptian Exchange data via Hapi Journal; the bank-dollar average (55.30) and the market trade dollar (55.63) from the Souq El Dahab app, Friday 23 October, 11:45 AM; the implied trade dollar (55.95) computed from our counter price and the ounce at the time of the reset; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 26 October at 12:00 noon.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.