Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 28 October 2026
Gold closed Tuesday at $4,060.20 — 20 cents above the line between two boxes ($4,060). Our primary source puts it in the box we ranked second (the bounce); a second source ($4,058.20) puts it in the first (the pause). Our rule: when there are two numbers, we grade ourselves on the harsher one. So: right range, wrong order, number not met — right by luck. Today the ounce is at $4,055, oil is rising again (Brent +1.9% to $116), and the dollar is flat. At 2 PM ET, the Fed. In Egypt: 21K rose 45 pounds to EGP 6,410, with the trade dollar at 56.19. And foreigners sold again: $619 million on Tuesday.
Spot now $4,055 · Trade dollar EGP 56.19 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,410 ·
We published: 40% the pause holds ($4,010–$4,060) · 35% oil keeps falling and the bounce extends ($4,060–$4,100) · 25% the strong data wins ($3,975–$4,010). The close was $4,060.20 on Trading Economics and $4,058.20 on Kitco. The first is in the second box; the second in the first.
We chose the harsher reading — our primary source, the one we grade on every day, which is also the number not in our favour: the second box. Right range, wrong order.
The second box’s confirming number was “Brent closes at $113.1 or below, or the yield at 4.94% or below”. Brent closed around $113.9 (it did not reach 113.1) and the yield around 5.00%. The condition was not met. Verdict: right by luck. Had we taken Kitco’s figure, the verdict would have been “right for the reason, right order” (the day was quiet: Brent −1.7%, the dollar +0.2%). We will not take it.
The lesson: the close sat exactly on the dividing line. That is not a test of the reading; it is a coin toss. The behaviour we wrote (gold circles before the Fed) happened — gold moved $44 from Monday’s close and settled halfway between two boxes. What was wrong was where the line sat, not the reading.
Record: 52 published · 49 graded · 45 correct · 92% (the weekly call and today’s are open). Tuesday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,055 the ounce is in the second box (35% the pause after the liquidation, $3,980–$4,080) — only $25 below its ceiling, with the week at +1.5% (its condition: under 2%). So the second box still stands but is on the upper edge: a Friday close above $4,080 moves us to the third (the bounce, $4,080–$4,200), whose condition is Brent at $113 or below — and Brent is $116 and rising again. The first box (liquidation, below $3,980) needs a $75 fall plus Brent at $118. Tonight’s Fed will decide.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,055 | −$5 on Tuesday’s close ($4,060) |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 56.19 | +0.12 on yesterday · banks 56.10 (yesterday) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,325 | +51 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,410 | +45 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,494 | +39 |
➡️ 21K up 45 pounds to EGP 6,410 — from today’s counter reset (11:10 AM, with the ounce at $4,055). The arithmetic: the ounce rose $20 from yesterday’s reset (about +32 pounds) and the trade dollar rose 0.12 (about +14). Almost exactly yesterday’s arithmetic. The official price is at today’s prices. 💱 The implied trade dollar is 56.19 — our last bank figure is 56.10 (yesterday, from Dr Mohammed). A premium of about 0.16% — the trade and the banks are still roughly level. If we receive a new bank figure today we will update it. 📊 Dollar pressure (Tuesday 27): outflow — net foreign and Arab selling of $619.1 million (Hapi Journal and Mubasher, Egyptian Exchange data). The third large outflow in four sessions. The total since Monday 19 October: about $3.1 billion in seven sessions; Al-Mal reports exits “touching $4 billion in ten days”. The pressure on the pound is not over — and if the Fed says tonight that December is on the table, US rates become more attractive and the exit continues.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 55.5 | 56.2 | 57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,980 (floor of the hawkish scenario) | 6,214 | 6,292 | 6,382 |
| $4,040 (the first dividing line) | 6,308 | 6,387 | 6,478 |
| $4,055 (now) | 6,331 | 6,411 | 6,502 |
| $4,100 (the second dividing line) | 6,401 | 6,482 | 6,574 |
| $4,160 (ceiling of the soft scenario) | 6,495 | 6,577 | 6,671 |
📍 Our gram at 6,410 is exactly the “4,055 × 56.2” cell. If a hawkish Fed takes gold to $3,980 and the dollar rises to 57, the gram is 6,382 — down only 28 pounds. If a soft Fed lifts it to $4,160 and the dollar eases to 55.5, the gram is 6,495 — up 85. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Wednesday 28 October session — New York close · a scheduled-release day (the Fed decision at 2 PM ET), so under correction four the condition is the vote result in the statement plus the price close · boxes wider than usual ($60) because a Fed day moves more
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 56.19: EGP 6,291 – 6,576, most likely 6,386 – 6,481
Up one pound (57.19): EGP 6,403 – 6,693, most likely 6,500 – 6,596
Down one pound (55.19): EGP 6,179 – 6,459, most likely 6,272 – 6,366
With $619 million leaving yesterday, the first or the second.
✏️ The quiet hold is first because of behaviour since Monday: gold up three days and equities rising — the market is not braced for a hawkish surprise. The hawkish hold is second, not third, because of July’s three dissents and Tuesday’s strong US data. If it flips, we say so tomorrow.
Yesterday gold closed at 4,060.20, and the line between two boxes was 4,060. A 20-cent difference; another source said 4,058.20. So our verdict on the day was decided by something that has nothing to do with the analysis: a last-minute difference between two sources.
We chose the harsher reading, as we always do. But more important than the verdict: the day itself went as we said — a day before the Fed, gold circled around 4,050 and oil and the dollar cancelled each other. The forecast was right in spirit and wrong in the verdict. That happens when a dividing line sits right where the price likes to stop.
What will we do? We will not change the rule for one day — if we changed it because we lost, we would be tailoring the rules to ourselves. But we record the case, and if it recurs two or three times, we will consider a correction: no dividing line on a round number the market likes (4,000, 4,050 or 4,100).
And what this means for you: tonight at 2 PM ET. If gold moves $60 either way, the gram moves about 95 pounds — but the dollar will likely move the other way and cancel part of it. Local prices are reset tomorrow morning once the picture is clear.
| $4,200 | The line and the weekly ceiling |
| $4,160–$4,180 | Kitco resistance and the ceiling of the soft scenario |
| $4,100 | The line between the ordinary and the soft hold |
| $4,080 | Ceiling of the weekly second box |
| $4,060 | Tuesday’s close |
| $4,055 | The price now |
| $4,040 | The line between the ordinary and the hawkish hold |
| $4,015 | Support |
| $3,980 | Floor of the hawkish scenario and of the weekly second box |
| $3,963 | Kitco support |
| EGP 56.19 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 56.10 | Our last bank figure — a premium of 0.16% |
Tonight: a hold with no hike dissent means $4,040–$4,100. A hike dissent means $3,980–$4,040. A cut dissent means above $4,100. And foreigners are still leaving — the gram answers to both.
Wednesday 2:30 PM: the advance goods trade balance · 4:30 PM: crude inventories · 8:00
PM: the Fed decision and statement · 8:30 PM: the press conference.
Thursday 2:30 PM: Q3 GDP + PCE + jobless claims.
Friday 2:30 PM: the employment cost index · midnight: the weekly verdict.
Tuesday’s close ($4,060.20), the spot price, Brent ($116), the yield (5.01%), the dollar (102.4), the gold and Fed headlines and the calendar from Trading Economics; the spot price ($4,055 at 4:50 AM New York), the second closing reading ($4,058.20), the PM report, technical levels, rate odds, the S&P 500 (7,722.60) and July’s dissents (Natixis) from Kitco; foreign and Arab trading in government debt ($619.1 million on Tuesday) from Egyptian Exchange data via Hapi Journal and Mubasher; ten-day exits from Al-Mal; the bank dollar (56.10) from Dr Mohammed Ahmed Aaref, 27 October; the implied trade dollar (56.19) computed from our counter price and the ounce at the time of the reset; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 28 October at 11:10 AM.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.