Home › Gold forecasts › Thursday 29 October 2026
The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% yesterday, but two members dissented in favour of a hike (Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack) — a 10–2 vote. That was the condition of our second box (the hawkish hold). And gold? It closed at $4,067.78 — in our first box (the quiet hold). The hawkish signal happened and gold did not fall. Verdict: right range, right order, number not met — right by luck. This morning gold “woke up” and fell 1% to $4,027. At 8:30 AM ET: GDP and PCE inflation. 21K fell 40 pounds to EGP 6,370.
Spot now $4,027 · Trade dollar EGP 56.23 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,370 ·
We published: 40% a hold with no dissent for a hike ($4,040–$4,100) · 35% a hawkish hold with hike dissents ($3,980–$4,040) · 25% a soft hold with a cut dissent ($4,100–$4,160). The close was $4,067.78 — inside the first. Right range, right order.
But the first box’s condition was “no member dissenting in favour of a hike”. What happened: a 10–2 vote, with two members (Cook and Hammack) who “preferred to raise the target range by 1/4 percentage point”. The condition broke. Verdict: right by luck. A second source gives the close as $4,056.80 — same box, same verdict.
The irony: the second (hawkish) box’s condition was met to the letter — but gold did not fall into its box. Gold dipped to $4,035 at the statement and came back to close at $4,068. Why? Because the market had already priced a December hike (83%), and the statement said nothing new about December beyond “the accumulation of more information will help”. The dissents were expected news, and gold was not surprised. This morning it fell 1% — a reaction one day late.
The lesson: on Fed day our condition was on the event (who dissents), not on the surprise (whether the event was expected). The hike dissents were priced, so they did not move the price. Next time on a central-bank day, the condition has to sit on what is not priced.
Record: 53 published · 50 graded · 46 correct · 92% (the weekly call and today’s are open). Wednesday’s report → · How grading works →
At $4,027 the ounce is in the second box (35% the pause after the liquidation, $3,980–$4,080) — $47 above its floor and $53 below its ceiling, roughly in the middle, with the week at +0.8% (its condition: under 2%). The first box, which we ranked first (liquidation, below $3,980), needs Brent at $118 — Brent is $114.5. The third (above $4,080) needs Brent at $113 or below. If Friday closes where we are now, the weekly call will be right range, wrong order for a fourth week — and the number (a move under 2%) is decided on Friday. The verdict is at midnight on Friday.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,027 | −$41 on Wednesday’s close ($4,068) |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 56.23 | +0.04 on yesterday |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,280 | −45 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,370 | −40 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,460 | −34 |
➡️ 21K down 40 pounds to EGP 6,370 — from today’s counter reset (11:10 AM). The arithmetic: the ounce fell about $28 from yesterday’s reset (about −44 pounds) and the trade dollar was roughly flat (+5). Today the gram fell with gold, and the dollar stayed out of it. The official price is at today’s prices. 💱 The implied trade dollar is 56.23 — our last bank figure is 56.10 (Tuesday), a premium of about 0.2%: still level. 📊 Dollar pressure (Wednesday 28): outflow, but lighter — net selling of $391 million (Hapi Journal and Banker, Egyptian Exchange data), down from $619 million on Tuesday and $663 million on Monday. Banker called it “a retreat in exits”. The total since 19 October: about $3.5 billion in eight sessions.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 55.5 | 56.2 | 57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,930 (floor of the hot-inflation scenario) | 6,136 | 6,213 | 6,302 |
| $3,990 (the first dividing line) | 6,230 | 6,308 | 6,398 |
| $4,027 (now) | 6,287 | 6,367 | 6,457 |
| $4,050 (the second dividing line) | 6,323 | 6,403 | 6,494 |
| $4,110 (ceiling of the cool-inflation scenario) | 6,417 | 6,498 | 6,590 |
📍 Our gram at 6,370 is exactly the “4,027 × 56.2” cell. If inflation runs hot and gold falls to $3,930, the gram is about 6,213; if it runs cool and gold rises to $4,110, about 6,498. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Thursday 29 October session — New York close · a scheduled-release day (PCE at 8:30 AM ET), so under correction four the condition is the core y/y value plus the price close · $60 boxes because it is a big-number day
🇪🇬 21K in Suez tomorrow morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 56.23: EGP 6,217 – 6,501, most likely 6,312 – 6,407
Up one pound (57.23): EGP 6,327 – 6,617, most likely 6,424 – 6,520
Down one pound (55.23): EGP 6,106 – 6,386, most likely 6,199 – 6,293
With foreigners easing their exit ($391 million yesterday), the first is the closest.
✏️ “As expected” is first because that is what happens in most months, and this morning’s behaviour (a quiet 1% dip after the Fed) is not that of a market braced for a surprise. Hot is second because prices generally (consumers and producers) ran hot this month. If it flips, we say so tomorrow.
Yesterday we wrote that what would move gold was “who dissents”. Right — two members dissented for a hike. And we wrote that this would take gold below $4,040. It did not. Why?
Because markets move on the gap between what happened and what was expected, not on what happened alone. The market priced a December hike at 80% before the meeting, and Natixis had said the dissenters “could return”. So the dissents were not a surprise — they were part of the picture. Gold dipped to $4,035 at the statement (a quick reaction) and came back to close at $4,068 once the market saw there was nothing new.
What do we do with this lesson? On a central-bank or big-number day, the condition has to sit on the surprise, not the event. Today we applied it: the condition is not “inflation is released” — it is “inflation comes in above or below the expected 3.1%, and by how much”.
And what this means for you: today the dollar is flat and foreigners are easing their exit, so the gram follows the ounce. And the ounce at 8:30 AM ET moves on one number: core inflation. 3.1% = calm. Above = down. Below = up.
| $4,200 | The line and the weekly ceiling |
| $4,110 | Ceiling of the cool scenario |
| $4,100 | Resistance |
| $4,080 | Ceiling of the weekly second box |
| $4,068 | Wednesday’s close |
| $4,050 | The line between calm and cool |
| $4,027 | The price now |
| $4,015 | Support |
| $3,990 | The line between calm and hot |
| $3,980 | Floor of the weekly second box |
| $3,930 | Floor of the hot scenario |
| EGP 56.23 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 56.10 | Our last bank figure — a premium of 0.2% |
Today at 8:30 AM ET: core at 3.1% means $3,990–$4,050. 3.2% or more means below 3,990. 3.0% or less means above 4,050. And the gram follows the ounce while the dollar is flat.
Thursday 2:30 PM: GDP + PCE + jobless claims · 4:30 PM: natural gas storage.
Friday 2:30 PM: the employment cost index (0.7% q/q expected) · midnight: the weekly verdict.
Saturday: the full weekly table and next week’s call (with the US jobs report on 6 November and the midterms on 3
November).
The Fed decision, the vote, the dissenters and the statement text from the FOMC statement on the Federal Reserve’s website, 28 October; gold’s reaction at the statement, December odds and the PM report from Kitco; Wednesday’s close ($4,067.78), the spot price, Brent, the yield, the dollar, the S&P 500 and today’s calendar from Trading Economics; the spot price ($4,018 at 8:00 AM New York) from Kitco; foreign and Arab trading in government debt ($391 million on Wednesday) from Egyptian Exchange data via Hapi Journal, Banker and Cairo 24; the bank dollar (56.10) from Dr Mohammed Ahmed Aaref, 27 October; the implied trade dollar (56.23) computed from our counter price and the ounce; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 29 October at 11:10 AM.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.