Home › Gold forecasts › Friday 30 October 2026
Core PCE came in at exactly 3.1%, as expected, and gold closed Thursday at $4,021.31 — inside our first box (inflation as expected, $3,990–$4,050). So range, order and number were all right — right for the reason, the second time this week. This morning gold is down again to $3,975 (−1.1%), with equities selling and the yield falling — the liquidity signature is back. The ounce sits right on the floor of the weekly call’s box ($3,980), so tonight’s verdict will be decided by a few dollars. In Egypt: 21K fell 50 pounds to EGP 6,320, and the trade dollar rose to 56.52.
Spot now $3,975 · Trade dollar EGP 56.52 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,320 ·
We published: 40% inflation as expected, gold keeps digesting the Fed ($3,990–$4,050) · 35% hot inflation ($3,930–$3,990) · 25% cool inflation ($4,050–$4,110). The close was $4,021.31 (another source: $4,024.60) — both inside the first. Right range, right order.
The first box’s confirming number was “core PCE y/y at exactly 3.1%”. The official figure: 3.1% (and 0.3% m/m as expected, headline 3.6% as expected). The condition was met to the letter. Right for the reason.
A direct application of Wednesday’s lesson: we wrote that expected news is not news and that the condition must sit on the surprise. So we ranked “as expected” first — it came in as expected, and gold fell $46 quietly (most of it in the morning, before the number) and closed in the middle of the box. GDP came in at 3.4% (above the 3.2% expected) but did not move gold much — the market was focused on inflation.
Record: 54 published · 51 graded · 47 correct · 92% (the weekly call and today’s are open). This week so far: range right 4 of 4, fully right 2 of 4. Thursday’s report → · How grading works →
The weekly call was written on Saturday 24 October: 40% the liquidation runs on ($3,830–$3,980; condition: Brent at $118 or above, or the S&P 500 at 7,540 or below) · 35% the pause after the liquidation ($3,980–$4,080; condition: the week’s move under 2%) · 25% the bounce ($4,080–$4,200; condition: Brent at $113 or below, or the dollar at 100.5 or below).
The ounce is now $3,975 — $5 below the dividing line ($3,980), with the week at −0.5%. So tonight’s verdict is on a hair:
Either way the range is right. What tonight settles is whether the order is finally right after four weeks — and, if so, by luck or for the reason. Tomorrow morning: the full weekly table and next week’s call — a week with the US midterms (3 November) and the jobs report (6 November).
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $3,975 | −$46 on Thursday’s close ($4,021) |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 56.52 | +0.29 on yesterday |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,222 | −58 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,320 | −50 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,417 | −43 |
➡️ 21K down 50 pounds to EGP 6,320 — from today’s counter reset (12:10 PM). The arithmetic: the ounce fell about $52 from yesterday’s reset (about −82 pounds) and the trade dollar rose 0.29 (about +32). The dollar is acting as a cushion again: gold fell 1.3% and the gram only 0.8%. The official price is at today’s prices. 💱 The implied trade dollar is 56.52 — our last bank figure is 56.10 (Tuesday), so the premium is back to about 0.75%. Either the trade is ahead of the banks again, or the banks themselves have moved since Tuesday — we have no fresh bank figure, and will update it when we do. 📊 Dollar pressure (Thursday 29): the Exchange figure for Thursday’s session has not reached us yet. The last figure: $391 million out on Wednesday, about $3.5 billion in eight sessions since 19 October.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 55.5 | 56.4 | 57.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,910 (floor of today’s first scenario) | 6,105 | 6,204 | 6,325 |
| $3,970 (the first dividing line) | 6,198 | 6,299 | 6,422 |
| $3,975 (now) | 6,206 | 6,307 | 6,430 |
| $4,030 (the second dividing line) | 6,292 | 6,394 | 6,519 |
| $4,090 (ceiling of today’s scenarios) | 6,386 | 6,489 | 6,616 |
📍 Our gram at 6,320 sits between the “3,975 × 56.4” and “× 57.5” cells. If the liquidation continues and gold falls to $3,910 with the dollar steady at 56.5, the gram is about 6,217; if it bounces to $4,030, about 6,408. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Friday 30 October session — New York close and the weekly close · a scheduled-release day (the employment cost index at 8:30 AM ET), so under correction four the condition is the index value plus the close · the liquidity signature is showing, so the first box is $60 wide (correction six)
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Saturday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 56.52: EGP 6,217 – 6,503, most likely 6,217 – 6,312
Up one pound (57.52): EGP 6,327 – 6,618, most likely 6,327 – 6,424
Down one pound (55.52): EGP 6,107 – 6,388, most likely 6,107 – 6,201
The dollar rose today, so the first or the second.
✏️ Continuation is first because of behaviour since yesterday: two down days, with equities, the yield and gold falling together. If the market bounces today, we say so tomorrow in the table.
On Wednesday we wrote: “expected news is not news — the condition must sit on the surprise”. On Thursday we applied it: we ranked “inflation as expected = calm” first and put the condition on the exact value (3.1%). It came in at 3.1%, and gold closed in the middle of the box. Right for the reason.
And from Monday: “rank on behaviour, not logic” — it worked on Monday. And from Saturday: “a wider box on liquidity days” — applied today. So this week every lesson we wrote was tested within the same week, and 2 of 4 days were fully right — better than any week before (last week: none of five).
But to be plain: today shows a liquidity signature, and it is a Friday before a weekend that is four days ahead of a US election. On days like this the move tends to be bigger than the boxes. If we are wrong today, it will be that kind of wrong.
And what this means for you: gold fell 1.3% from yesterday and the gram only 0.8% — the dollar is absorbing part of the fall again. If equities keep selling tonight, gold can fall further, but the gram stays tied to the dollar too.
| $4,090 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,080 | The weekly second dividing line |
| $4,030 | The line between the pause and the bounce |
| $4,021 | Thursday’s close |
| $3,986 | Kitco support (broken) |
| $3,980 | The weekly dividing line — it decides tonight’s verdict |
| $3,975 | The price now |
| $3,970 | The line between continuation and the pause |
| $3,910 | Floor of today’s first scenario |
| $3,830 | Floor of the weekly call |
| EGP 56.52 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 56.10 | Our last bank figure — a premium of 0.75% |
Today at 8:30 AM ET: the ECI at 0.8% or more means below $3,970. 0.7% or less means $3,970–$4,030. 0.6% or less means above $4,030. And at midnight: above $3,980 = the weekly second box, right for the reason · below $3,980 = the first, most likely right by luck.
Friday 2:30 PM: the employment cost index · 3:45 PM: Chicago PMI · 6:30 PM: Musalem
· midnight: the weekly close and the verdict on the weekly call.
Saturday morning: the full weekly table (six forecasts), the verdict, and next week’s call.
Next week: the US midterms on Tuesday 3 November · the jobs report on Friday 6 November.
Core and headline PCE, GDP and jobless claims (29 October releases), Thursday’s close ($4,021.31), the spot price, Brent, the yield, the dollar, the S&P 500, today’s calendar and December odds from Trading Economics, with release dates from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the spot price ($3,982 at 6:25 AM New York), the second closing reading ($4,024.60), the PM report and technical levels from Kitco; foreign and Arab trading in government debt ($391 million on Wednesday) from Egyptian Exchange data via Hapi Journal and Cairo 24; the bank dollar (56.10) from Dr Mohammed Ahmed Aaref, 27 October; the implied trade dollar (56.52) computed from our counter price and the ounce; local prices from our own published price list, reset on 30 October at 12:10 PM.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.