Home › Gold forecasts › Tuesday 3 November 2026
On Monday gold had its biggest up day in weeks: it closed at $3,947 (+$71, +1.8%) because Brent fell 7.6% in one session (the largest drop since July) on talk of Qatar-mediated talks and a reopening of Hormuz. Our call was “calm first” and gold closed in our second box (the bounce): right range, number met (Brent closed below $107), wrong order. Today the picture flipped again: the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight, Brent is back up 2%, and gold has returned half of Monday’s gain: $3,903 (−$43, −1.1%). Tonight the US elections, with the first polls closing at 2:00 AM Cairo. In Egypt: the gram is steady at EGP 6,140, the implied trade dollar is 55.92, and the banks eased to 55.37 — so the premium is back to 1%, which is our warning again.
Spot now $3,903 · Trade dollar EGP 55.92 · banks 55.37 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,140 ·
We published: 40% gold holds before the elections ($3,860–$3,910) · 35% the oil bounce runs on ($3,910–$3,970) · 25% the bounce fades ($3,800–$3,860). The close was $3,947.03 (Trading Economics) · $3,945.80 (Kitco) · $3,954.41 (Reuters) — all three inside the second. Right range, wrong order: we ranked it second at 35%.
The second box’s confirming number was “ISM at 54.0 or below, or Brent closing at $107 or below”. Brent settled at $104.77 (−7.6%, the largest drop since July) — the condition was met on the oil side. Right for the reason, wrong order.
⚖️ But this has to be said plainly: the ISM printed 55.5 — that was the third box’s condition (the fall), not the second’s. The scheduled number said “down” and gold rose $71. Oil fell 7.6% the same day, which is far bigger than a one-point surprise in an index. The condition held because we wrote it with “or”, which is correct under the rules — but the lesson is below: when there are two signals in one day, the bigger one wins.
Record: 57 published · 54 graded · 49 correct · 91% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). This week: 1 of 1 on range, 0 of 1 on order. Monday’s call → · How grading works →
The weekly call (published Saturday): 35% the liquidation runs on ($3,700–$3,850) · 30% a low being built ($3,850–$3,950) · 25% a bounce ($3,950–$4,100) · 10% the tail box. The ounce is $3,903 — still inside the second. On Monday it touched $3,969 (above the $3,950 line for a few hours) and came back.
The elections and gold: polls give the Democrats the House at above 90% and the Senate at about 70% (prediction markets). Analysts are split on what that means for gold: Julius Baer says US deficits persist “regardless of the midterm outcome”, a long-run support · KCM Trade says a Democratic sweep could weigh on AI stocks, and if equities fall hard gold could fall with them (the liquidity chain). Saxo notes options price a 0.86% move in gold today and 1.85% through Friday — the market itself does not expect an explosion tonight. And the World Gold Council (Saturday’s report) found no consistent historical effect.
What matters more for gold this week than the vote: oil (it moved gold $71 up yesterday and $43 down today), the Bank of England on Thursday, and the jobs report on Friday (40,000 expected).
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $3,903 | −$43 on Monday’s close (−1.1%) · high 3,965 · low 3,895 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 55.92 | roughly unchanged (55.95 yesterday) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,017 | unchanged |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,140 | unchanged |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,262 | unchanged |
➡️ 21K steady at EGP 6,140 — from today’s counter update (12:00 PM). The ounce is almost exactly
where it was at noon yesterday ($3,903 against $3,901), so the gram did not move. The official price is at today’s
prices.
💱 The Souq El Dahab app (12:22 PM): a bank-dollar average of 55.37 — down 6 piastres on yesterday (55.43) and 37
on Saturday — a market trade dollar of 55.85 (up 19 piastres on yesterday), a market 21K average of EGP 6,135 (selling), and the ounce on
screen at $3,903.70. So the banks are still easing while the trade ticked up — the premium is back to 1.0% at our counter (55.92 against
55.37) and 0.9% in the market. Our rule: a premium at 1% or above is a warning. Either the banks stop, or the gram falls as the trade catches up.
📊 Egypt on Monday: foreigners net sold only $41.3 million of Treasury bills (sold 255, bought 214) and Arabs 3.5 million
— the outflow has slowed sharply after $1.3 billion last week. The Exchange fell 0.7% (48,403) with foreign institutions net sellers of EGP 140
million. The background: the central bank raised rates by 100 basis points on Thursday 29 October (deposit 20%, lending 21%) — the first
hike since March 2024 — and Sunday’s auction took the 91-day yield to 25%. That is what is calming the outflow and easing the banks.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 79 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 110 pounds. The banks are down 37 piastres since Saturday and the trade down 76 over the same period. If the trade caught the banks now (55.37), the gram would fall about 60 pounds without the ounce moving.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 55 | 56 | 57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,800 (near today’s floor) | 5,879 | 5,986 | 6,093 |
| $3,850 (the first weekly dividing line) | 5,956 | 6,065 | 6,173 |
| $3,903 (the price now) | 6,038 | 6,148 | 6,258 |
| $3,950 (the second weekly dividing line) | 6,111 | 6,222 | 6,333 |
| $4,000 (the psychological number) | 6,189 | 6,301 | 6,414 |
📍 Our gram at 6,140 is roughly the “3,903 × 56” cell. If gold falls to $3,850 and the dollar catches the banks at 55, the gram is about 5,956 — down 184. If gold rises to $3,950 with the dollar at 56, the gram is 6,222 — up 82. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Tuesday 3 November session — New York close (before election results appear) · no major US release (JOLTS at 5:00 PM Cairo only) · the market is following oil today, so the conditions sit on Brent and equities · the liquidity signature is not showing
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: yesterday we ranked “calm first” before a big event, and oil broke the rule. Today the same event (the elections tonight), but gold is down 1.1% and oil is up. So calm first again — options price a move under 1% — but with the downside box moved closer (35%) rather than further away. If oil breaks the rule again, we change it tomorrow.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Wednesday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 55.92: EGP 6,009 – 6,261, most likely 6,088 – 6,166
Up one pound (56.92): EGP 6,116 – 6,373, most likely 6,196 – 6,276
Down one pound (54.92): EGP 5,901 – 6,149, most likely 5,979 – 6,056
The premium is back to 1% and the banks are still easing, so the first or the third assumption.
✏️ The first box is $50 wide because options price a 0.86% move (about $34). If tonight turns out bigger than that, we say so tomorrow in the table.
Oil — the whole story: on Monday Brent settled at $104.77 (−7.6%) after Iran approved Qatar-mediated talks and
offered to reopen Hormuz “under conditions”, and Trump said there would be no strikes after the elections. Overnight the US struck
Qeshm Island as a “defensive measure” after the IRGC claimed it had downed US drones. Brent today $107 (+2%). Emirates
NBD: the strike leaves “the diplomatic opening vulnerable”.
Australia hiked: a quarter point to 4.85% (an 18-year high) on a 6–3 vote, and said inflation will not return below 3%
before late 2027. The hike was expected, and the Australian dollar fell rather than rose — the tone afterwards was softer.
The US: ISM manufacturing 55.5 (production 59, the highest since November 2021), prices 75.2. The yield 4.89% (down 3.5 basis points
yesterday). A December hike still about 75%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,541 (−0.5%) and the Nasdaq −1.1% — equities fell and gold rose
yesterday, so not the liquidity chain.
Positioning: Saxo: funds have been net sellers on COMEX for nine straight weeks, the net long is down to about 107,000 contracts, and ETFs
lost about 6 tonnes last week. The $3,970 that was support is now resistance. Kitco (Monday’s PM report): resistance $3,978 and $4,035 · support
$3,817 and $3,719.
Silver: $49.1 (−2.8%) — back below $50.
Yesterday carried two signals on the same day: the ISM printed hot (55.5, our condition for the fall), and oil crashed 7.6% (the condition for the rise). Gold followed oil. Why? A one-point surprise in an index moves December hike odds from 73% to 75% — while oil falling $8 in a day moves the whole inflation outlook. Size wins.
The writing rule we are adding (not a formal correction yet): when a small scheduled number and a big open event fall on the same day, the condition goes on the big event first and the scheduled number second. Yesterday we joined them with “or”, and that worked — partly by luck.
And the lesson for you: the premium is back to 1%. On Saturday it was 1.7%, and the gram fell 40 pounds in two days to close it. Now the banks have eased another 37 piastres and the trade has not followed. If it does, the gram falls about 60 pounds without the ounce moving.
| $4,035 | Kitco resistance |
| $3,980 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios and Kitco resistance (3,978) |
| $3,970 | Broken support, now resistance (Saxo) |
| $3,969 | Monday’s high |
| $3,950 | The second weekly dividing line |
| $3,947 | Monday’s close |
| $3,920 | The line between the hold and the bounce |
| $3,903 | The price now |
| $3,895 | Today’s low |
| $3,870 | The line between the hold and the fall; Friday’s low |
| $3,850 | The first weekly dividing line |
| $3,820 | Floor of today’s scenarios and Kitco support (3,817) |
| $3,700 | The tail-box line |
| EGP 55.92 | The implied trade dollar |
| EGP 55.85 | The market trade dollar |
| EGP 55.37 | The bank-dollar average (easing) — a premium of 1.0%, our warning |
Tonight: Brent between 105 and 109 means $3,870–$3,920. Brent at 109 or the S&P at 7,460 means below $3,870. Brent at 105 or the yield at 4.83 means above $3,920. The first polls close at 2:00 AM Cairo — results come after the New York close, so their effect lands on Wednesday.
Tuesday 5:00 PM: JOLTS job openings (7.1 million expected) and factory orders (+1.1% expected) · no Fed speakers ·
midnight: the New York close and the verdict on today’s call · 2:00 AM: the first polls close (Florida, Georgia,
Virginia), 3:00 AM Pennsylvania, Texas and Michigan.
Wednesday: results in the morning · 3:15 PM: ADP (80,000 expected) · 5:00 PM: ISM services (54.5
expected) · the Treasury refunding announcement.
Thursday: the Bank of England at 2:00 PM (a hike to 4% expected), Hammack and Barkin in the evening · Friday 3:30 PM: the
jobs report (40,000 expected) and at midnight the verdict on the weekly call.
Monday’s close ($3,947.03) and spot ($3,907) from Trading Economics; Monday’s close ($3,945.80), the Monday PM report and its levels, spot ($3,902.70 at 5:33 AM ET), today’s high and low and silver from Kitco; Monday’s close ($3,954.41) and the Asian-session reading from Reuters via Business Recorder; Monday’s closes for Brent ($104.77), WTI, the S&P 500 (7,541.40), the Nasdaq, the yield (4.893%) and the dollar (101.78) from CappNotes and Kitco; Brent today ($107), the Qeshm strike and the Emirates NBD comment from The National and the Wall Street Journal; the ISM (55.5) and its components from ISM; the RBA (4.85%, 6–3) from ABC News; options pricing, positioning and ETF flows from Saxo (Ole Hansen, 2 November); Julius Baer and KCM Trade from Reuters via Kitco; polls and prediction markets from RealClearPolitics and Kalshi via CappNotes; the calendar and poll-closing times from Saxo and Newsquawk. Egypt: foreign and Arab trading in bills on Monday ($41.3 million) from Hapi Journal citing Exchange data; the Exchange on Monday from Youm7; the 100-basis-point rate rise (29 October) from Youm7 and Al Arabiya; the bank-dollar average (55.37), the market trade dollar (55.85), the market 21K average (6,135) and the on-screen ounce ($3,903.70) from the Souq El Dahab app, 3 November, 12:22 PM; the implied trade dollar (55.92) computed from our counter price and the ounce; counter prices from our own published price list, updated 3 November at 12:00 PM. Not found: Sunday’s foreign flows in bills, Kitco’s morning report, and fresh notes from UBS, Goldman or TD.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.