Home › Gold forecasts › Thursday 5 November 2026
Wednesday’s call closed fully right: gold closed at $4,066, inside the first box we ranked first, and Brent settled at $94.62 inside the condition. Today gold went on: it touched $4,148 in Asia, fixed above $4,100 in London for the first time in 11 sessions, and is now about $4,118 (+1.5%). But today’s bigger story is in equities, not gold: the Nasdaq is down about 4–5% and the S&P 500 2–3% — chip and AI stocks are being sold on fears of tougher regulation under a Democratic Congress. The last two times equities sold off like this (22 and 30 October), gold was sold with them afterwards. The Bank of England hiked to 4% as expected. And the problem we have to state plainly: gold is now above the ceiling of our weekly call ($4,100) — if Friday closes above it, the weekly range is wrong.
Spot now $4,118 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,240 (last counter update Wednesday 6:00 PM) ·
We published yesterday at 7:30 PM with the session under way: 45% gold locks in the gain ($4,010–$4,070) · 30% the rise runs on ($4,070–$4,130) · 25% profit-taking ($3,950–$4,010). The close was $4,065.90 (Kitco) and $4,060.30 (Trading Economics) — both inside the first. Right range, right order.
The first box’s confirming number was “Brent closing between $92 and $97”. Brent settled at $94.62 (−8.7%, day range 93.22–104.96). The condition was met. Right for the reason.
⚖️ A note for honesty: that call was written mid-session (7:30 PM Cairo), not in the morning as usual, because Wednesday’s report was late. So we had more information than usual at the time of writing. We count it as right, but we record it as a half-session call, not a full-day call. And the new ranking rule (rank with oil when it moves more than 3%) worked the first time it was applied.
Record: 59 published · 56 graded · 51 correct · 91% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). This week: 3 of 3 on range, 3 of 3 on the number, 1 of 3 on order. Wednesday’s call → · How grading works →
The weekly call (published Saturday): 35% the liquidation runs on ($3,700–$3,850) · 30% a low being built ($3,850–$3,950) · 25% a bounce ($3,950–$4,100, its condition jobs at 40,000 or fewer, or the yield at 4.85% or below) · 10% the tail box (below $3,700). The ounce is now $4,118 — $18 above the highest box.
Plainly: if Friday closes above $4,100, the weekly call is wrong — the price ran through every box from above, by the same rule we graded ourselves with when it ran through them from below (22 and 30 October). We will not call it “close”. The reason is clear: we wrote the weekly call on the assumption that the driver was the Fed and the jobs report, and this week the driver turned out to be oil and the election — Brent fell from $113 to $95 in four days, and that was in none of our boxes. Even the tail box (correction seven) was open only at the bottom. The lesson for Saturday: the tail box has to be open at both ends when a big event like an election or a war decision is on the calendar.
If Friday closes between $3,950 and $4,100 (meaning gold falls $18 or more — and today’s equities give a reason), the third box is right on range, wrong on order (we ranked it third), and the number hangs on the jobs report: 65,000 expected (Reuters) against a condition of 40,000 or fewer, or the yield at 4.85 (now 4.83–4.87 — on the edge).
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce (7:00 PM Cairo) | $4,118 | +$52 on Wednesday’s close (+1.3%) · high 4,148 · low 4,058 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied, last counter update) | EGP 54.84 | computed on Wednesday’s 6:00 PM price |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,131 | |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,240 | |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,348 |
➡️ 21K at EGP 6,240 — the last published counter price (Wednesday, 6:00 PM) at the time of writing. The ounce
has risen $73 since, so with the trade dollar steady at 54.84 the raw metal for 21K at an ounce of $4,118 is about EGP 6,353. The current
official price is at today’s prices.
💱 The dollar: no documented bank figure reached us today (the last from the Souq El Dahab app was 55.37 on Tuesday, and our implied
figure fell below it to 54.84 on Wednesday). We will confirm the app figure as soon as it arrives.
📊 Egypt on Wednesday: the Exchange rose 2.83% (50,650, a record), with Arabs net buyers of EGP 337 million of shares and
foreigners 50 million. In bills: a small net sale of $21.2 million by foreigners and Arabs (Hapi Journal, from Exchange data) after
$112 million of net buying on Tuesday. So hot money is steady — neither leaving nor flooding in — which keeps the banks calm.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 77 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 116 pounds. The ounce is up $240 since Tuesday (3,903 → 4,118) and the dollar down a pound and a half over the same period. Without the dollar the gram would have gained about 370 pounds; with the falling dollar the actual gain is under 200.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 54 | 55 | 56 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,000 (the psychological number) | 6,076 | 6,189 | 6,301 |
| $4,100 (the weekly ceiling) | 6,228 | 6,343 | 6,459 |
| $4,118 (the price now) | 6,255 | 6,371 | 6,487 |
| $4,200 (about the ceiling of tonight’s scenarios) | 6,380 | 6,498 | 6,616 |
| $4,300 | 6,532 | 6,653 | 6,774 |
📍 If equities keep falling and drag gold to $4,000 with the dollar at 55, the gram is 6,189. If gold goes on to $4,200 and the dollar eases to 54, the gram is 6,380. About 190 pounds between the two. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering tonight’s New York close (midnight Cairo) — written at 7:00 PM with the session under way · the Bank of England is done (a hike to 4%) · two drivers today: oil (+2.5%) and equities (selling hard) · the conditions sit on both
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: gold up and equities down — that is not the liquidity signature (which is both down). But the last two times equities fell more than 2% in a day, gold was sold with them the same day or the next. So holding first, with the fall close behind it, and the second box widened to $70 (correction six) in case liquidity kicks in.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Friday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 54.84: EGP 6,201 – 6,494, most likely 6,309 – 6,402
Up one pound (55.84): EGP 6,314 – 6,613, most likely 6,424 – 6,519
Down one pound (53.84): EGP 6,088 – 6,376, most likely 6,194 – 6,285
The dollar is calm today (hot money steady), so the first assumption is the likeliest. In every case the gram tomorrow is above Wednesday’s price
(6,240).
✏️ The first box is $60 and the second $70 (correction six, because equities are selling hard). Friday at 3:30 PM: the jobs report — it decides the whole weekly call.
Equities — the biggest story: the Nasdaq down 3.6% (some readings 5%) and into a formal correction, the S&P 500 −2% to
−3.3%. The reason: fears of tougher regulation of AI and chip companies under a Democratic Congress (Nvidia −7%, Broadcom −8%). This after a
big up day on Wednesday (S&P +1.6%, Dow +3%).
The Bank of England: a quarter point to 4.00% on an 8–1 vote (Mann wanted half a point) — the first hike since August
2023. Bailey said the rise “shouldn’t be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence”, but another is possible without “real
progress” in the Middle East. Sterling at its highest since mid-September.
Oil: Brent back to $97 (+2.5%) after Wednesday’s collapse (94.62). Saxo: oil “slumped more on hopes than concrete
progress”. A tanker struck a mine east of Hormuz and caught fire. UBS puts postwar fair value at $80–85.
The Fed: Hammack: policy “will need to move to a restrictive stance”, and she prefers “more frequent smaller
adjustments”. Barkin: the path is “pretty straightforward… the question is pace”. A December hike priced at 79–82%.
The yield 4.83–4.87% — an eight-week low.
Wednesday: ISM services 54.5 (54.8 expected), ADP 86,000 (67,000 expected), and the Treasury kept auction sizes unchanged “for the next
several quarters”. Democrats at least 54 Senate seats and at least 255 House seats (per Jeffries).
Forecasts: Citi: $4,500 in 0–3 months and $5,000 in 6–12. Metals Focus: the result “introduces a new layer of
unpredictability”. Kitco: “lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar have improved the near-term backdrop”. Silver $52.4 after touching
$53.5.
On Saturday we wrote correction seven: a “tail box” open at the bottom, because liquidity days fall further than any box. That was right. But this week gold ran up further than any box: from $3,876 to $4,148 in four days — $272. And we had no box open at the top. So the correction was half a correction.
The rule we will propose on Saturday (correction seven, amended): when a big scheduled event falls in the week (an election, a war decision, a pivotal Fed meeting), the tail box is open at both ends — 10% below and 10% above — taken out of the three main boxes. That way we admit in advance that the event can move the market further than usual in either direction.
And the lesson for you: if gold closes the week above $4,100, this is a week in which the ounce rose 6% and the gram less than 4% because of the dollar. If equities drag gold below $4,090 tonight, the gram tomorrow heads back toward 6,300. Either way: the gram tomorrow is above yesterday’s price, and the gap between the scenarios is about 100 pounds.
| $4,210 | Ceiling of tonight’s scenarios |
| $4,150 | The line between holding and the flight into gold |
| $4,148 | Today’s high |
| $4,118 | The price now |
| $4,100 | The weekly ceiling — a Friday close above it makes the weekly call wrong |
| $4,090 | The line between holding and the liquidity chain |
| $4,084 | Kitco resistance (broken) |
| $4,066 | Wednesday’s close |
| $4,058 | Today’s low |
| $4,020 | Floor of tonight’s scenarios |
| $4,000 | The psychological number |
| $3,950 | The second weekly dividing line |
| EGP 54.84 | The last implied trade dollar |
| EGP 55.37 | Our last documented bank figure (Tuesday) |
Tonight: the S&P at 7,450 or above with Brent below 99 means $4,090–$4,150. The S&P at 7,350 means below $4,090. The yield at 4.80 or Brent at 94 means above $4,150. Tomorrow at 3:30 PM the jobs report (65,000 expected): a close above $4,100 = the weekly call wrong · $3,950–$4,100 = the third box.
Thursday 8:50 PM: Hammack (her remarks came out this morning: policy “will need to move to a restrictive stance”) ·
9:10 PM: Barkin · midnight: the New York close and the verdict on today’s call.
Friday 3:30 PM: the jobs report (65,000 expected, prior 29,000, unemployment 4.2%) · 5:00 PM: Michigan ·
Williams, Musalem, Bowman and Logan · midnight: the weekly close and the verdict on the weekly call.
Saturday morning: the full weekly table (six forecasts), the verdict, the amended correction seven, and next week’s call.
Wednesday’s close ($4,065.90), the Wednesday PM report, silver, ISM services and ADP from Kitco; Wednesday’s close ($4,060.30), the dollar index (101.57 and 101.3) and today’s S&P 500 from Trading Economics; spot ($4,118.40 at 12:03 PM ET), today’s high and low ($4,148 / $4,057.50) and the Kitco AM report from Kitco; the London fix above $4,100, the Asian high ($4,146) and Metals Focus from BullionVault (5 November); Wednesday’s Brent ($94.62), WTI and the Saxo, SEB and UBS comments from Rigzone; Brent today ($96.96), the Hormuz tanker, Nvidia and Broadcom from The National (5 November); Wednesday’s closes for the S&P 500 (7,688.62), the Nasdaq and the Dow from Kitco; the Bank of England (4.00%, 8–1) and Bailey’s remarks from MoneyWeek and MPA Mag; Hammack from Reuters via Investing.com; Barkin from Seeking Alpha; the refunding announcement from the US Treasury; election results from CBS News; Citi, the jobs consensus (65,000) and December odds from Reuters via FinanceFeeds. Egypt: net selling of bills by foreigners and Arabs on Wednesday ($21.2 million) from Hapi Journal citing Exchange data (5 November); the Exchange on Wednesday (50,650) from Amwal Al Ghad; our last documented bank dollar (55.37) from the Souq El Dahab app, 3 November; the implied trade dollar (54.84) computed from the counter price (Wednesday 6:00 PM) and the ounce at the time; counter prices from our own published price list. Not found: Wednesday’s exact high and low, a documented bank figure for today, and an ING or Commerzbank comment.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.