Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 4 November 2026
The Democrats won both chambers, and the market answered within hours: the dollar fell to a one-month low, the yield eased, and Brent collapsed 10% to about $94 on hopes the new Congress will end the Iran war. Gold? +3% to about $4,045 — back above $4,000 for the first time since 29 October, with a high of $4,051 — its biggest up day in months. In Egypt the gram rose 100 pounds to EGP 6,240, even though the implied trade dollar fell to 54.84, because the ounce rose $142 in a day. This report is published at 7:30 PM Cairo, four and a half hours before the New York close, and the call below is on tonight’s close.
Spot now $4,045 · Trade dollar EGP 54.84 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,240 ·
We published: 40% gold holds and waits for the results ($3,870–$3,920) · 35% the correction runs on ($3,820–$3,870) · 25% the Qatar talks return and the bounce resumes ($3,920–$3,980). The close was $3,924.10 (Kitco) · $3,931.68 (Trading Economics) · $3,938 (a third reading) — all three inside the third, the nearest only $4 above the dividing line. Right range, wrong order: we ranked it third at 25%.
The third box’s confirming number was “Brent closing at $105 or below, or the yield at 4.83% or below”. Brent settled at $103.60 (−1.1%, after swinging from above $107 to below $101 in the session). The condition was met. Right for the reason, wrong order.
⚖️ A note we have to make: this is the second day running that the order fails the same way — we rank “calm first” and oil decides. And the third day running that the condition is met on the oil side. This week the market has one driver, called Brent, and we are still ranking as if it had two. The lesson is below.
Record: 58 published · 55 graded · 50 correct · 91% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). This week: 2 of 2 on range, 2 of 2 on the number, 0 of 2 on order. Tuesday’s call → · How grading works →
The weekly call (published Saturday): 35% the liquidation runs on ($3,700–$3,850) · 30% a low being built ($3,850–$3,950) · 25% a bounce ($3,950–$4,100, its condition jobs at 40,000 or fewer, or the yield at 4.85% or below) · 10% the tail box. The ounce is now $4,045 — inside the third, the one we ranked third. If it stays here until Friday, the verdict will hang on the jobs number: the consensus has moved to 62,000 (it was 40,000), and the yield is now 4.90% — just above the 4.85 condition. So the range may be right, the order wrong, and the number on the edge. Two days left.
The election happened, and the market read it this way: a Democratic Congress means pressure to end the Iran war (Brent −10%), a bigger deficit (gold likes deficits), and a Fed that may turn calmer if oil falls. Three things in gold’s favour in one day. Kitco Research notes gold rose 14% on average in the 12 months after the last 13 midterms — but Capital Economics says a hawkish Fed and the correlation with equities cap the gains. And today’s two US numbers came in stronger than expected (ADP 86,000 against 66,000; JOLTS yesterday 7.52 million against 7.1) — and gold did not care. The bigger news won again.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce (7:30 PM Cairo) | $4,045 | +$121 on Tuesday’s close (+3.1%) · high 4,051 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 54.84 | −1.08 on yesterday (55.92) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,131 | +114 |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,240 | +100 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,348 | +86 |
➡️ 21K at EGP 6,240 — from today’s counter update (6:00 PM), up 100 pounds on
yesterday. In detail: the ounce’s $142 rise is worth about +223 pounds, and the trade dollar’s fall of 1.08 pounds about
−116. The dollar ate half of the ounce’s rise. The official price is at today’s
prices.
💱 The dollar is falling fast: the implied trade dollar went from 56.68 on Saturday to 54.84 today — 1.84
pounds in four days. Our last documented bank figure from the Souq El Dahab app was 55.37 at noon yesterday, and today’s implied figure is below
it — so the banks eased further today (we will confirm the app figure tomorrow morning). The reason is plain on the Exchange: foreigners
and Arabs are buying bills again: a net $112.3 million bought on Tuesday (Hapi Journal, from Exchange data), after net buying
on Monday. The Exchange rose 1.76% on Tuesday (49,255). This is the effect of the 100-basis-point rate rise and 25% bill yields: hot money is coming
back, and the dollar is easing.
⚠️ The premium has flipped: for the first time in weeks, the trade is below our last documented bank figure.
That happens when the ounce rises faster than the trade can reprice. Either the gram rises further if the ounce holds, or the ounce calms and the gap
closes by itself.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 77 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 114 pounds. Today the ounce rose $142 and the dollar fell 1.08. Had the dollar stayed put, the gram would be about 6,355, not 6,240. A falling dollar shields the customer from a rising ounce — the exact opposite of last week.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 54 | 55 | 56 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,950 (the second weekly dividing line) | 6,000 | 6,111 | 6,222 |
| $4,000 (the psychological number) | 6,076 | 6,189 | 6,301 |
| $4,045 (the price now) | 6,144 | 6,258 | 6,372 |
| $4,100 (the weekly ceiling) | 6,228 | 6,343 | 6,459 |
| $4,200 | 6,380 | 6,498 | 6,616 |
📍 Our gram at 6,240 sits between the “4,045 × 54” and “× 55” cells. If gold goes on to $4,100 and the dollar eases to 54, the gram is 6,228 — below today despite the ounce rising $55. If gold returns to $4,000 with the dollar at 55, the gram is 6,189 — down 51. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering tonight’s New York close (midnight Cairo) — written at 7:30 PM with the session under way, so the boxes sit around the current price · the scheduled numbers are out (ADP 86,000 · ISM services) · the driver is still Brent, so the conditions sit on oil and equities
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: two days running, “calm first” was wrong and oil decided. Today the behaviour is clear: a big up day on big news, and the market usually locks in such gains into the close rather than giving them all back. So holding first, and continuation before the fall. If the market sells the gain tonight, we say so tomorrow.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Thursday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 54.84: EGP 6,100 – 6,378, most likely 6,193 – 6,285
Up one pound (55.84): EGP 6,211 – 6,494, most likely 6,306 – 6,400
Down one pound (53.84): EGP 5,989 – 6,262, most likely 6,080 – 6,171
The dollar has fallen four days running and foreigners are buying, so the first or the third assumption — and the third is not far-fetched.
✏️ The first box is $60 wide because the call is written mid-session on a volatile day (today’s range so far is about $130). If tonight turns out bigger, we say so tomorrow.
The election: ABC News projected the Democrats winning both chambers (final projection 2:32 AM ET). Seats flipped in Maine, Ohio,
Texas and Michigan. Trump and Vance blamed the Iran war. And that is what the market read: pressure on the White House to end the war.
Oil — the biggest move in the whole market: Brent from $103.60 at yesterday’s close to about $94 (−10%)
— Rystad says a Democratic sweep “could pave the way to an Iran deal”. Even so: a senior Iranian official said they are “far from a
deal”, Iran called the latest US response “unsatisfactory”, and the next mediation round is in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November.
Capital Economics warns new strikes could push Brent back above $120. US crude inventories fell 5.3 million barrels.
The dollar and the yield: the dollar index 101.35 (a one-month low), the 10-year 4.90% (down from 4.95). A December hike is
still priced at about 80% — the market still sees the Fed hiking, but gold is trading on oil and the dollar today, not on the Fed.
US data: ADP 86,000 (66,000 expected) · JOLTS yesterday 7.52 million (7.1 expected) and factory orders +1.8%. Both stronger than
expected, and gold did not care. Friday’s jobs consensus has moved to 62,000 (Goldman).
Silver: $52 (+4.8%) — back above $50 with force. Equities: futures +0.8% after falling in the morning.
Levels (Kitco): resistance $3,975 (broken today) then $4,084 · support $3,871 and $3,797. Saxo had called $3,970
resistance — it broke within an hour.
Three days running: Monday Brent −7.6% and gold +71. Tuesday Brent −1.1% and gold +21 on the edge. Wednesday Brent −10% and gold +121. The hot ISM, the strong JOLTS, the stronger-than-expected ADP — all of them should have weighed on gold, and none of them did. Because oil is what sets inflation expectations right now, and inflation is what sets the Fed.
The rule we apply from today (and will call correction eight if it holds through Friday): when an open geopolitical event (like Hormuz) moves oil by more than 3% in a day, the order follows oil, not “calm”. If oil is falling, the rise is first. If it is rising, the fall is first. Calm comes second. That would have fixed both Monday’s and Tuesday’s order.
And the lesson for you: the ounce rose $142 and the gram rose only 100 — because the dollar fell a pound. Last week the dollar shielded the gram from the ounce’s fall; today it shields it from the rise. The dollar always plays against the ounce on the big days, and that is what makes the gram in Egypt calmer than the ounce in both directions.
| $4,130 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,100 | The weekly ceiling |
| $4,084 | Kitco resistance |
| $4,070 | The line between holding and continuation |
| $4,051 | Today’s high |
| $4,045 | The price now |
| $4,010 | The line between holding and profit-taking |
| $4,000 | The psychological number (cleared) |
| $3,975 | Broken resistance, now support |
| $3,950 | The second weekly dividing line; floor of today’s scenarios |
| $3,924 | Tuesday’s close |
| $3,871 | Kitco support |
| EGP 54.84 | The implied trade dollar (down a pound in a day) |
| EGP 55.37 | Our last documented bank figure (yesterday) — the trade is now below the banks |
Tonight: Brent between 92 and 97 means $4,010–$4,070. Brent at 92 or the yield at 4.83 means above $4,070. Brent at 97 or the S&P at 7,490 means below $4,010. And the weekly call: gold is in the third box, and Friday’s jobs report (62,000 expected) decides the number.
Wednesday: the US session is under way · midnight: the New York close and the verdict on today’s call.
Thursday 2:00 PM: the Bank of England (a quarter-point hike to 4% priced at 96%) · 3:30 PM: jobless claims
· 8:50 PM: Hammack (who dissented for a hike) · 9:10 PM: Barkin.
Friday 3:30 PM: the jobs report (62,000 expected, prior 29,000, unemployment 4.2%) · midnight: the weekly
close and the verdict on the weekly call · Saturday morning: the full weekly table and next week’s call.
Tuesday’s close ($3,924.10), the Tuesday PM report, its levels and silver from Kitco; Tuesday’s close ($3,931.68) and spot from Trading Economics; spot today ($4,046.74 at 12:34 GMT and $4,040.15 at 3:45 PM GMT), the high ($4,050.99), silver, Brent and the comments from Capital Economics, Deutsche Bank, ING and Rystad from Reuters via Kitco and Investing.com; Brent ($94.09) and WTI from MarketScreener (12:19 PM ET); Tuesday’s Brent ($103.60), the S&P 500 (7,568.92), the Nasdaq and the yield (4.951%) from Kitco; the dollar index (101.39) from Rio Times; the election result from ABC News (2:32 AM ET); JOLTS (7.523 million) and factory orders from the BLS via Kitco; ADP (86,000) from the Blye Sheet and Reuters; December odds (about 80%) from CME via Kitco; the calendar and the jobs consensus (62,000) from Goldman via ZeroHedge and Trading Economics; Kitco Research (14% after midterms) from Kitco. Egypt: net foreign and Arab buying of bills on Tuesday ($112.3 million) from Hapi Journal citing Exchange data (4 November); the Exchange on Tuesday (49,255) from Mubasher; our last documented bank dollar (55.37) from the Souq El Dahab app, 3 November, 12:22 PM; the implied trade dollar (54.84) computed from our counter price and the ounce; counter prices from our own published price list, updated 4 November at 6:00 PM. Not found: Tuesday’s exact high and low, the final ISM services print at the time of writing, and a Saxo or Commerzbank comment on the result.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.