Home › Gold forecasts › Thursday 12 November 2026
$4,000 has broken. Gold closed Wednesday at $3,987 (−1.1%) and is at $3,950 today (−0.9%) after touching $3,924 — a third straight fall, and $190 in three sessions from Monday’s close ($4,140). The cause is neither oil nor equities (the S&P 500 rose 1.3% yesterday): it is the dollar, at its highest since April 2025 (102.9), and Waller saying a half-point hike in December may be necessary. Today the US bond market opens for the first time since CPI day, with the 10-year sitting on 5%. In Egypt the bank dollar is at 53.48 (down 61 piastres since Monday) and our gram is at EGP 6,050 — 120 pounds below the figure in yesterday’s report.
Spot now $3,950 · Trade dollar EGP 54.45 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,050 ·
We wrote on Wednesday at 12:00 PM: 45% gold catches its breath on the holiday ($4,020–$4,080) · 30% the bounce runs on ($4,080–$4,140) · 25% Fed pressure continues and $4,000 is tested ($3,960–$4,020). The close was $3,987 (Kitco $3,987.00 · Trading Economics $3,987.84 · Rio Times printed $3,979) — on any of the three it is inside the third. Right range, wrong order (we ranked it last at 25%).
The third box’s confirming number was “the dollar index at 103.5 or above, or Brent closing at $95.5 or above”. The dollar closed at 102.9 (Trading Economics; Rio Times has 103.04) and Brent settled at $92.76. Neither condition was met. By our rule: right by luck. The direction was right (it was the dollar that rose), but the threshold we wrote was 1% away — and the dollar needed only half that distance to break $4,000.
More important — the first box’s logic was wrong. We said “with no bond market there is no driver”. Brent settled at $92.76, inside the calm condition (90.5–95.5) to the letter — and gold fell $45 anyway. The driver was Waller and the dollar, not oil. That is the fifth time in under three weeks we ranked “calm” first and it failed.
Record: 64 published · 61 graded · 56 correct · 92% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). “Right by luck” counts as correct in the tally, as always, but is labelled as such in the archive. Wednesday’s report → · How grading works →
The weekly call (written Monday from $4,105): 30% digesting the rise ($4,000–$4,150, its condition core CPI at 0.2% or 0.3% and Brent between $90 and $102) · 27% a break of $4,150 ($4,150–$4,300) · 23% hot inflation or escalation ($3,850–$4,000, its condition core at 0.4% or more, or Brent at $105) · 10% an upper tail above $4,300 · 10% a lower tail below $3,850.
The ounce is now $3,950 — inside the third, $50 below the first box’s floor and $100 above the tail line. Two things have to be said now. First, the first box’s condition was met to the letter (core 0.3, Brent 92) and gold left the box anyway — so the condition was wrong, not merely wide. Second, the third box’s condition (core 0.4 or Brent 105) is not met — so if the week closes here, the verdict will be “right by luck” for the second weekly call in a row.
What is left in the week: today jobless claims, five Fed speakers and a 30-year auction · Friday PPI (0.4% headline and 0.3% core expected). To return to the first box gold needs +$50. To reach the tail it needs −$100.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $3,950 | −$37 on Wednesday’s close (−0.9%) · high 4,001 · low 3,924 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 54.45 | banks 53.48 · market trade dollar 54.26 (12:00 PM) |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,914 | |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,050 | −90 on yesterday’s last update |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,185 |
➡️ 21K at EGP 6,050 — from today’s counter update (12:00 PM). Down 90 pounds on yesterday’s
last update (6,140), 120 on the figure in yesterday’s report (6,170) and 180 on Sunday’s price (6,230). Since
yesterday’s report the ounce is down $105 (4,055 → 3,950), about −161 pounds, and the implied dollar up 36 piastres, about +40. The official
price is at today’s prices.
💱 The dollar in Egypt (Souq El Dahab app, 12:00 PM): the bank average is 53.48 — down 7 piastres on yesterday
(53.55) and 61 piastres since Monday (54.09). The market trade dollar is 54.26 (54.39 yesterday). So the banks are falling
and the trade follows more slowly: the market premium is 1.5%, and 1.8% on our counter price — above our 1% warning line for a second
day.
📊 Why the gram fell less than the ounce: since noon yesterday the ounce is down 2.6% and the gram 1.9%. The difference is the premium
that widened. It cuts both ways: if the trade caught the banks at 53.48, the gram would fall about 108 pounds without the ounce moving a
dollar; if the banks stop falling, the premium stays where it is.
🇪🇬 Not found today: foreign trading in Treasury bills for Wednesday. The last documented figure: $1.61 billion of inflows on
Monday and Tuesday. Amwal Al Ghad also reports remittances from Egyptians abroad at about $13 billion in the first quarter of the fiscal year (+20.4%) —
dollars arriving through another door.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 77 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 111 pounds. The two still pull the same way: the ounce under the global dollar and the Fed, the local dollar under incoming money. The difference from yesterday is that the trade has not fallen as fast as the banks, so the gap between them is now about one pound.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 53 | 54 | 55 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,860 (floor of today’s scenarios) | 5,755 | 5,863 | 5,972 |
| $3,900 (the support analysts are naming) | 5,814 | 5,924 | 6,034 |
| $3,950 (the price now) | 5,889 | 6,000 | 6,111 |
| $4,000 (floor of the first weekly box) | 5,963 | 6,076 | 6,189 |
| $4,040 (ceiling of today’s scenarios) | 6,023 | 6,137 | 6,250 |
📍 Our gram at 6,050 sits between the “3,950 × 54” cell (6,000) and the “3,950 × 55” cell (6,111), because the implied dollar is 54.45. If gold falls to $3,900 and the dollar to 53 (close to the banks), the gram is about 5,814 — down 236. If gold returns to $4,000 with the dollar at 54, 6,076 — up 26. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Thursday 12 November session — New York close · the US bond market opens for the first time since CPI day · 3:30 PM Cairo jobless claims (195,000 expected) · five Fed speakers · 8:00 PM a 30-year auction · the liquidity signature is showing weakly (S&P futures −0.4%, Nasdaq −0.9%, the 10-year on 5%)
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: three down days and $190, and the price has bounced from 3,924 to 3,950 since the morning. After a move of that size the market usually pauses — but that is the same sentence we wrote yesterday, and it was wrong. Two things differ today: the first box has moved down with the trend (below $4,000, not above it), and the gap to the fall box is 7 points, not 20. The fall is second rather than third, because the bond market has not yet had its say on Waller, and the dollar is 0.3% from the number that confirms it. The bounce is last: it needs news that weakens the dollar, and the calendar offers only jobless claims.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Friday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 54.45: EGP 5,912 – 6,188, most likely 6,004 – 6,096
Up one pound (55.45): EGP 6,021 – 6,302, most likely 6,114 – 6,208
Down one pound (53.45, that is, catching the banks): EGP 5,804 – 6,074, most likely 5,894 – 5,984
The banks have fallen three days running and the trade follows more slowly, so the third assumption is still the nearest in direction — though not
necessarily in a single day.
✏️ Today’s dollar thresholds are only 0.3% away, not 1% as yesterday — a direct fix from yesterday’s mistake. If that nearer threshold turns out to be met too easily, we will say that too.
The dollar: the index closed Wednesday around 102.9 — up more than 1% in two sessions and at its highest since April
2025. Today 102.85. It is the first driver of gold right now.
The Fed: Waller said a half-point hike in December may be necessary if inflation keeps accelerating. Logan: “at least two more”
hikes. Paulson and Bowman also sounded hawkish. December pricing: 87–91% for a quarter point and 9–13% for a half (CME and FX
Leaders) — with another hike priced for January.
Bonds: the market was closed on Wednesday (Veterans Day). The last close was 4.99% on Tuesday; today 5.00%. So today is the
first day bonds trade on Waller’s remarks. A 30-year auction follows at 8:00 PM Cairo.
Oil and Iran: Brent settled Wednesday at $92.76 (+1.4%) after Iran denied that talks are under way and said it would not
surrender enriched material. Today it is around $92. Tehran wants sanctions lifted and the naval blockade ended before Hormuz reopens. Oil is sitting in its
range and is not what is moving gold these two days.
Equities: the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,619 (+1.31%) and the Nasdaq +1.6%. Gold fell while equities rose — not a
liquidity sale, a rates-and-dollar story. Today futures are −0.4% and the Nasdaq −0.9% after Nvidia fell.
Gold: FX Leaders: resistance $4,015 and $4,067; support $3,969 (broken), then $3,920 and $3,872. TD Securities: a possible
retest of $3,900 if the dollar stays strong. Kitco: analysts warn of further losses toward $3,900. TradingKey: $4,000 is the level to
reclaim. Further out, Standard Chartered still sees a fourth-quarter average of $4,650 — the large banks have not changed their long-run view.
Silver: around $51.6–51.8, from $52.7 on Wednesday morning.
Yesterday we wrote that gold falls below $4,020 “if the dollar reaches 103.5”. The dollar was at 102.45. We were asking it to move 1% in a day. On an ordinary day the dollar moves 0.3 to 0.5%. What happened: the dollar rose about 0.5% — a large move by its own scale — and broke $4,000, and our condition was not met. Right box, right reason, and a verdict of “luck” because the number we wrote was further than the market needed.
That answers half of one of Saturday’s open questions: the threshold that confirms a scenario has to sit within an ordinary day’s move for that indicator — about 0.3% for the dollar, 3 to 4 basis points for the yield, not 1%. A distant threshold protects us from claiming “met” too easily, but it turns every hit into “luck”. Today we applied it.
The other half: “calm first” has failed five times in under three weeks. The market this November does not calm after a large move — it continues. We will count it on Saturday and decide whether the first box should always sit in the direction of the last move.
And the lesson for you: $4,000 is a psychological number and its break is news. But your gram did not fall by the ounce’s percentage (1.9% against 2.6%), because the trade falls more slowly than the banks and the screen. That happens in every fast fall. It means about 108 pounds are “hanging” in the premium: they may come off if the banks stay lower, and may stay if the dollar bounces. The decision is yours — we only show the number.
| $4,067 | FX Leaders resistance |
| $4,040 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,015 | FX Leaders resistance |
| $4,000 | Floor of the first weekly box (broken) and the psychological number |
| $3,987 | Wednesday’s close |
| $3,980 | The line between calm and the bounce |
| $3,969 | FX Leaders support (broken) |
| $3,950 | The price now |
| $3,924 | Today’s low |
| $3,920 | The line between calm and the fall; FX Leaders support |
| $3,900 | TD Securities’ retest level; the analysts quoted by Kitco |
| $3,872 | FX Leaders support |
| $3,860 | Floor of today’s scenarios |
| $3,850 | The weekly lower tail line |
| EGP 54.45 | The implied trade dollar — the market trade dollar 54.26, the banks 53.48, a premium of 1.5–1.8% (above our 1% line) |
Today: the dollar between 102.5 and 103.2 means $3,920–$3,980. The dollar at 103.2 or the yield at 5.04% means below $3,920. Jobless claims at 210,000 or the dollar at 102.5 means above $3,980. The week: below $4,000 = the third box (its condition is not met, so right by luck) · above it = back in the first · below $3,850 = the tail.
Thursday 3:30 PM: jobless claims (195,000 expected, 189,000 previous) · 4:00 PM: Hammack · 5:00 PM:
existing home sales and Barr · 6:30 PM: Goolsbee · 7:00 PM: crude inventories · 8:00 PM: the 30-year
auction · 8:10 PM: Daly · midnight: the New York close and the verdict on today’s call · 1:30 AM:
Williams.
Friday 3:30 PM: PPI (0.4% headline and 0.3% core expected; 1.3% and 0.7% previous) · 4:10 PM: Collins ·
5:50 PM: Bowman · 7:00 PM: Daly · midnight: the weekly close and the verdict on the weekly call.
Saturday: the week’s table, the verdict on the weekly call, and the correction decisions (the dollar threshold, the 3% oil threshold,
and the “calm first” ranking).
Open: Iran — no talks date announced.
Spot ($3,946.60 at 5:33 AM ET, −$40.40), today’s range ($3,924.30–$4,001.20) and Wednesday’s close derived from it ($3,987.00) from Kitco; Wednesday’s close ($3,987.84), the dollar index (102.91 Wednesday, 102.85 today), the yield (4.99% and 5.00%), the remarks of Waller, Logan, Paulson and Bowman, and Brent today from Trading Economics; Wednesday’s close ($3,979), the S&P 500 (7,619, +1.31%), the Nasdaq and the dollar index (103.04) from Rio Times; Wednesday’s Brent settlement ($92.76, +1.39%) and the Iran news from Seeking Alpha; Tuesday’s Brent settlement ($91.49) from FinanceFeeds citing CNBC; December odds (90.6% and 9.4%) and the $3,960 support from TradingKey citing CME; December odds (87% and 12.9%) and the FX Leaders, TD Securities and Standard Chartered levels from Startup Fortune; silver from Newsbytes and USAGold; the calendar, consensus figures (jobless claims 195,000; PPI 0.4% and 0.3%) and speaker times from Trading Economics and Rio Times. Egypt: the bank-dollar average (53.48), the market trade dollar (54.26), the market 21K average (6,030) and the on-screen ounce ($3,949.50) from the Souq El Dahab app, 12 November, 12:00 PM; yesterday’s figures (53.55 and 54.39) from the same app, 11 November, 5:45 PM; the implied trade dollar (54.45) computed from our counter price and the ounce; counter prices from our own published price list, updated 12 November at 12:00 PM; foreign trading on Monday and Tuesday ($1.61 billion) and remittances from Amwal Al Ghad. Not found: a single agreed spot close for Wednesday (the sources differ by $8, and the verdict is the same on any of them), Wednesday’s session high and low, foreign trading in bills on Wednesday, and the jobless-claims figure (released after this report was written).
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.