Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 11 November 2026
In two days gold made both moves: on Monday it rose $70 to $4,140 when Trump said strikes “won’t be necessary” and Brent fell 6%; on Tuesday it fell $108 to $4,032 (−2.6%) when US inflation printed hot: core 0.3% (0.2% expected) and headline 0.4%. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.99% and a December hike is now priced at 100% — with 12% betting on half a point rather than a quarter. Today gold is at $4,055 (+0.6%), catching its breath with the US bond market closed. $4,000 has held so far. And in Egypt, the biggest story in a year: foreigners bought $1.6 billion of Treasury bills in two days and inflation fell to 12.7% — our gram is at EGP 6,170. A plain note: no report was written on Tuesday, and Friday’s and Monday’s reports were published today, late, because of a fault in our upload tool.
Spot now $4,055 · Trade dollar EGP 54.09 · 21K in Suez EGP 6,170 ·
⏱ We wrote on Monday at 1:30 PM (published today): 40% gold calms before CPI ($4,070–$4,130) · 35% positive news from Qatar and gold tests $4,150 ($4,130–$4,190) · 25% hawkish talk or escalation ($4,010–$4,070). The close was $4,140.40 (Kitco) — inside the second. Right range, wrong order (we ranked it second at 35%).
The second box’s confirming number was “Brent closing at $94 or below, or the yield at 4.79 or below”. Brent settled at $92.57 (−5.85%) after Trump met Qatar’s prime minister and said strikes “won’t be necessary” for now. The condition was met. Right for the reason, wrong order — the fourth time in two weeks “calm first” failed and oil decided. The new oil rule (correction 7c) would have put the rise first, since Brent was down 1.8% at the time of writing… but the rule says “more than 3%”, so it did not apply. We will review that threshold on Saturday.
Tuesday 10 November: no call. We did not write a report on Tuesday, so there is nothing to grade. Gold fell $108 that day. We will not say “we would have called it” — what was not published does not count, for us or against us.
Record: 63 published · 60 graded · 55 correct · 92% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). Friday’s and Monday’s calls carry a ⏱ mark because they were published after the close. Monday’s report and the weekly call → · How grading works →
The weekly call (written Monday from $4,105): 30% digesting the rise ($4,000–$4,150, its condition core CPI at 0.2% or 0.3% and Brent between $90 and $102) · 27% a break of $4,150 ($4,150–$4,300) · 23% hot inflation or escalation ($3,850–$4,000, its condition core at 0.4% or more, or Brent at $105) · 10% an upper tail above $4,300 · 10% a lower tail below $3,850.
The ounce is now $4,055 — inside the first, $55 above its floor. Core CPI printed 0.3% — inside the first box’s condition to the letter — and Brent at $93 is inside the band. So far the box we ranked first is holding with its condition. But this has to be said: 0.3% was the upper edge of our condition, the market treated it as “hot” (0.2% was expected), and gold fell $108 on it. Our condition was wide — the number the market saw as a surprise, we had filed under “as expected”. If the week closes in the box, we will record that note in the verdict.
What is left in the week: Thursday jobless claims, five Fed speakers and a 30-year auction · Friday PPI (0.4% expected). The risk to the first box is from below: a break of $4,000 — Saxo says the support has “held so far”, and TradingKey sees $3,975 as the decisive level.
| Now | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,055 | +$23 on Tuesday’s close (+0.6%) · high 4,068 · low 4,026 |
| 💱 Trade dollar (implied) | EGP 54.09 | banks 53.55 (5:45 PM) · market premium 1.6% |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,051 | |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,170 | −60 on Sunday’s price |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,288 |
➡️ 21K at EGP 6,170 — from today’s counter update (12:00 PM), down 60 pounds on Sunday’s
price (6,230). The ounce is down $50 since then (4,105 → 4,055), about −76 pounds, and the implied dollar up 14 piastres, about +16. The official
price is at today’s prices.
📊 The biggest story in Egypt in a year — hot money is back in force: foreigners and Arabs net bought $614.7 million of
Treasury bills on Monday (foreigners alone $577.6 million) and about $996 million on Tuesday — $1.61 billion in two days
(Hapi Journal and Amwal Al Ghad, from Exchange data). That is the size of the outflow of a whole week in late October ($1.84 billion), in the opposite
direction and in two days. The reason: rates were raised 100 basis points, bill yields are at 25%, and Egyptian inflation fell to 12.7% in
October (from 13.9%) with core at 13.1% — so the real yield is now above 12%. The Exchange set another record on Tuesday (52,483, +2.1%).
💱 What it means for the dollar: $1.6 billion in two days is strong downward pressure on the dollar. Update, 5:45 PM — the Souq El Dahab app: a bank-dollar average of 53.55 — down 54 piastres on Monday (54.09) — a market trade dollar of 54.39, a market 21K average of EGP 6,125 (selling), and the ounce on screen at $4,002.40. So what we expected at noon happened: the banks fell and the trade did not follow, and the market premium is now 1.6% — above our 1% warning line. The last time the premium was there (31 October), the gram fell 40 pounds in two days. The ounce itself fell from $4,055 at noon to $4,002 — sitting exactly on the floor of the first weekly box. Our counter price was updated after this report was written: 21K is now EGP 6,140 (down 30 on the report’s figure and 90 on Sunday’s price) · 24K EGP 7,017 · 18K EGP 5,262. The rest of the report’s arithmetic stays on the noon price (6,170), as written.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 76 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 114 pounds. For the first time in a month the two pull the same way: the ounce under Fed pressure, the dollar under the pressure of incoming hot money. If the trade caught the banks at 53.3, the gram would fall about 90 pounds without the ounce moving.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 53 | 54 | 55 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,960 (floor of today’s scenarios) | 5,904 | 6,015 | 6,127 |
| $4,000 (floor of the first weekly box) | 5,963 | 6,076 | 6,189 |
| $4,055 (the price now) | 6,045 | 6,160 | 6,274 |
| $4,100 | 6,113 | 6,228 | 6,343 |
| $4,150 (ceiling of the first weekly box) | 6,187 | 6,304 | 6,421 |
📍 Our gram at 6,170 is roughly the “4,055 × 54” cell. If gold breaks $4,000 and the dollar falls to 53, the gram is about 5,963 — down 207. If gold returns to $4,150 with the dollar at 54, 6,304 — up 134. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Covering the Wednesday 11 November session — New York close · Veterans Day: the US bond market is closed, equities open · no US data · Lagarde and the OPEC monthly report · the liquidity signature is not showing (futures +0.7%, gold up)
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: a bond holiday after a −2.6% day: the market usually calms and catches its breath. Gold is moving within $42 (4,026–4,068). Brent is up 1.6% (under the oil rule’s 3%). So calm first. The bounce second, because $4,000 held and the behaviour since the morning is up. The fall third — but its box is $60 wide, because the dollar and the yield rose yesterday while equities fell (the new definition of the liquidity signature was met on Tuesday).
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Thursday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 54.09: EGP 6,025 – 6,299, most likely 6,117 – 6,208
Up one pound (55.09): EGP 6,137 – 6,416, most likely 6,230 – 6,323
Down one pound (53.09): EGP 5,914 – 6,183, most likely 6,003 – 6,093
Foreigners bought $1.6 billion of bills in two days, so the third assumption (the dollar falling) is the nearest — the first time we clearly favour
it.
✏️ The first box is $60 wide even on a holiday, because yesterday’s move was $108. If today turns out calmer than that, the box was too wide — and we will say so.
US inflation (Tuesday): headline +0.4% m/m (0.3% expected) and core +0.3% (0.2% expected) — the third
straight 0.3%. Shelter +0.3%, food +0.5%, energy +0.7%. No annual rates were published, because October 2025 data was not collected during the
shutdown.
The Fed: Waller (before the print): “leaning toward supporting an increase… of 25 basis points” in December, and 50 “should
be considered” if core is “around 0.3 percent or even higher” — a condition that was met. Logan: “at least two more” hikes.
December: 88% for a quarter point, 12% for a half. The 10-year at 4.98–4.99% (it touched 5%), the 2-year +17 basis points. The 10-year auction was
the weakest since June.
Iran and oil: on Monday, after meeting Qatar’s prime minister, Trump said strikes “won’t be necessary” for now but the US
stays “locked and loaded”, and the naval blockade remains. Eurasia cut its odds of all-out war from 60% to 30%. Brent −5.85% on Monday and
−1.2% on Tuesday to $91.49 (the lowest settle since 31 August). On Tuesday Iran denied any talks (“a pure lie”) and called the US
reply “insufficient and deceptive”. Today Brent $92.9 (+1.6%). Thirty-seven ship attacks so far in November.
Gold: UBS (Staunovo): “bitter turnaround on the rate and dollar side”. StoneX: “technical retracement… bears book
profits”. ANZ: the near-term setup “does not seem positive”. Saxo: resistance $4,155, support $4,000 “held so far”. Kitco:
resistance $4,051 (being tested now), $4,088 and $4,148 · support $4,020, $4,000, then $3,890–3,910.
Equities: the S&P 500 at 7,549 on Monday (+2.35%) and 7,521 on Tuesday (−0.4%). Today futures +0.7% and the Nasdaq +1.7% on CoreWeave
results and an Nvidia rebound.
Silver: $52.9 after closing at $51.41 yesterday (−3.6%).
Core CPI printed 0.3% against 0.2% expected. One tenth of a percent. And gold fell $108. Last Friday payrolls printed two and a half times the consensus and gold fell $35 and came back. Why the difference? Because Waller — one of the Fed’s most important voices — had said in so many words before the print: if core is 0.3 or higher, half a point “should be considered”. So the number did not matter by itself; it mattered because a decision maker had tied a decision to it. A number that someone important has put a condition on moves more than a bigger number.
That exposes a flaw in our weekly call: we put 0.2 and 0.3 together under “as expected”. The market saw 0.2 as calm and 0.3 as a surprise. The first box may still turn out right, but if it does it will be because the box is wide ($150), not because the condition was precise. The fix: the condition on a scheduled number has to be written around the consensus figure exactly, not a band around it.
And the lesson for you: for the first time in a month, the ounce and the dollar pull the gram the same way — down. The ounce carries the Fed’s pressure (a December hike at 100%), the dollar the pressure of $1.6 billion arriving in two days. In October one rose while the other fell and the gram sat in the middle. Now there is no cushion.
| $4,155 | Saxo resistance |
| $4,150 | Ceiling of the first weekly box |
| $4,148 | Monday’s high |
| $4,140 | Ceiling of today’s scenarios |
| $4,088 | Kitco resistance |
| $4,080 | The line between calm and the bounce |
| $4,055 | The price now |
| $4,051 | Kitco resistance |
| $4,032 | Tuesday’s close |
| $4,020 | The line between calm and the fall; Kitco support |
| $4,014 | Tuesday’s low |
| $4,000 | Floor of the first weekly box and the psychological number |
| $3,975 | The decisive level (TradingKey, Chandler) |
| $3,960 | Floor of today’s scenarios |
| $3,890–$3,910 | Kitco support |
| $3,850 | The lower tail line |
| EGP 54.09 | The implied trade dollar at noon |
| EGP 53.55 | The bank-dollar average (5:45 PM, falling) — the market trade dollar 54.39, a premium of 1.6% (our warning) |
Today: Brent 90.5–95.5 means $4,020–$4,080. Brent 90.5 or the dollar 101.4 means above $4,080. The dollar 103.5 or Brent 95.5 means below $4,020. The week: above $4,000 = the first box is holding · below it = the third box (whose condition, core 0.4 or Brent 105, is not met — so it would be right by luck).
Wednesday: the US bond market closed · Lagarde · the OPEC monthly report · midnight: the New York close and the
verdict on today’s call.
Thursday 3:30 PM: jobless claims (195,000 expected) · 4:00 PM: Hammack · 5:00 PM: existing home sales and
Barr · 6:15 PM: Goolsbee · 8:10 PM: Daly · 8:30 PM: Schmid · a $25 billion 30-year auction · UK
GDP.
Friday 3:30 PM: PPI (0.4% headline and 0.3% core expected) · Collins, Bowman, Daly · midnight: the weekly close
and the verdict on the weekly call.
Open: Iran — no talks date announced.
Monday’s close ($4,140.40) and Tuesday’s ($4,031.80), the PM reports, levels, silver and Waller’s remarks from Kitco (9 and 10 November); Tuesday’s close ($4,032.38) from Trading Economics; spot ($4,054.90 at 6:18 AM ET) and today’s range from Kitco; CPI (0.4% and 0.3%) and its components from the BLS via Kitco; December odds (100%; 88% and 12%), futures and Tuesday’s low ($4,017) from Reuters; Tuesday’s low ($4,013.54) and $3,975 from TradingKey; Brent ($92.57 and $91.49, January contract), the yield, the 10-year auction and the $4,155 / $4,000 levels from Saxo; the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the dollar index (102.25) from CappNotes; Iran, Qatar and Eurasia from Bloomberg via Rigzone and Al Jazeera (10–11 November); UBS, StoneX and ANZ from Reuters; Logan, Barkin, Bowman and Schmid from Reuters and Kitco; the calendar from ZeroHedge and Financial Juice. Egypt: foreign and Arab trading in bills ($614.7 million Monday, $996 million Tuesday) from Hapi Journal and Amwal Al Ghad citing Exchange data; Egyptian inflation (12.7%, core 13.1%) from CAPMAS and the central bank via Al Eqaria; the Exchange (52,483) from Youm7; the bank-dollar average (53.55), the market trade dollar (54.39), the market 21K average (6,125) and the on-screen ounce ($4,002.40) from the Souq El Dahab app, 11 November, 5:45 PM; the implied trade dollar (54.09) computed from our counter price and the ounce; counter prices from our own published price list, updated 11 November at 12:00 PM. Not found: Monday’s exact low and Tuesday’s exact high, and Sunday’s trading in bills.
This report is the English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, at the same date’s Arabic page. Every figure here appears there.