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Three weighted scenarios, published before the session they cover, settled on the New York close, with the verdict posted the following morning above the next forecast.
We published yesterday at 7:30 PM with the session under way: 45% gold locks in the gain ($4,010–$4,070) · 30% the rise runs on ($4,070–$4,130) · 25% profit-taking ($3,950–$4,010). The close was $4,065.90 (Kitco) and $4,060.30 (Trading Economics) — both inside the first. Right range, right order.
The first box’s confirming number was “Brent closing between $92 and $97”. Brent settled at $94.62 (−8.7%, day range 93.22–104.96). The condition was met. Right for the reason.
⚖️ A note for honesty: that call was written mid-session (7:30 PM Cairo), not in the morning as usual, because Wednesday’s report was late. So we had more information than usual at the time of writing. We count it as right, but we record it as a half-session call, not a full-day call. And the new ranking rule (rank with oil when it moves more than 3%) worked the first time it was applied.
Record: 59 published · 56 graded · 51 correct · 91% (the weekly call and today’s call are open). This week: 3 of 3 on range, 3 of 3 on the number, 1 of 3 on order. Wednesday’s call → · How grading works →
The weekly call (published Saturday): 35% the liquidation runs on ($3,700–$3,850) · 30% a low being built ($3,850–$3,950) · 25% a bounce ($3,950–$4,100, its condition jobs at 40,000 or fewer, or the yield at 4.85% or below) · 10% the tail box (below $3,700). The ounce is now $4,118 — $18 above the highest box.
Plainly: if Friday closes above $4,100, the weekly call is wrong — the price ran through every box from above, by the same rule we graded ourselves with when it ran through them from below (22 and 30 October). We will not call it “close”. The reason is clear: we wrote the weekly call on the assumption that the driver was the Fed and the jobs report, and this week the driver turned out to be oil and the election — Brent fell from $113 to $95 in four days, and that was in none of our boxes. Even the tail box (correction seven) was open only at the bottom. The lesson for Saturday: the tail box has to be open at both ends when a big event like an election or a war decision is on the calendar.
If Friday closes between $3,950 and $4,100 (meaning gold falls $18 or more — and today’s equities give a reason), the third box is right on range, wrong on order (we ranked it third), and the number hangs on the jobs report: 65,000 expected (Reuters) against a condition of 40,000 or fewer, or the yield at 4.85 (now 4.83–4.87 — on the edge).
Covering tonight’s New York close (midnight Cairo) — written at 7:00 PM with the session under way · the Bank of England is done (a hike to 4%) · two drivers today: oil (+2.5%) and equities (selling hard) · the conditions sit on both
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: gold up and equities down — that is not the liquidity signature (which is both down). But the last two times equities fell more than 2% in a day, gold was sold with them the same day or the next. So holding first, with the fall close behind it, and the second box widened to $70 (correction six) in case liquidity kicks in.
🇪🇬 21K in Suez on Friday morning — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 54.84: EGP 6,201 – 6,494, most likely 6,309 – 6,402
Up one pound (55.84): EGP 6,314 – 6,613, most likely 6,424 – 6,519
Down one pound (53.84): EGP 6,088 – 6,376, most likely 6,194 – 6,285
The dollar is calm today (hot money steady), so the first assumption is the likeliest. In every case the gram tomorrow is above Wednesday’s price
(6,240).
✏️ The first box is $60 and the second $70 (correction six, because equities are selling hard). Friday at 3:30 PM: the jobs report — it decides the whole weekly call.
A crowded, sensitive week: Monday the ISM manufacturing index · Tuesday the US elections + the Reserve Bank of Australia (hike expected) · Wednesday ISM services and ADP · Thursday the Bank of England (hike to 4% expected) and Hammack (who dissented for a Fed hike) · Friday the jobs report (65,000 expected, after 29,000). The liquidity signature has been showing since Friday, so this call is written under correction six (a $150 first box) and correction seven (the tail box).
⚠️ Ranked on behaviour: Friday closed near the day’s low, the liquidity signature is showing, professionals are 63% bearish, and speculators still hold large longs. So continuation first. Last week this way of ranking was right 4 times out of 6.
🇪🇬 21K at the end of next week — on three trade-dollar assumptions:
Steady at 56.68: EGP 5,900 – 6,538 (from $3,700 to $4,100), most likely 5,900 – 6,139
Up one pound (57.68): EGP 6,004 – 6,653, most likely 6,004 – 6,247
Down one pound (55.68): EGP 5,796 – 6,422, most likely 5,796 – 6,031
The premium is above 1% (trade 56.55 against banks 55.74 in the market), and foreigners came back to buy on Thursday — so the third
assumption (the dollar easing) is not far-fetched this week, for the first time in weeks.
✏️ Every threshold carries its distance from the price (correction five), the first box is $150 wide (correction six), and the tail box is published with its probability (correction seven). If you find a threshold close to the price or a narrow box, write to us.
If the ounce moves $50, the gram moves about 77 pounds. If the trade dollar moves one pound, the gram moves about 116 pounds. The ounce is up $240 since Tuesday (3,903 → 4,118) and the dollar down a pound and a half over the same period. Without the dollar the gram would have gained about 370 pounds; with the falling dollar the actual gain is under 200.
| Ounce ↓ · Dollar → | 54 | 55 | 56 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,000 (the psychological number) | 6,076 | 6,189 | 6,301 |
| $4,100 (the weekly ceiling) | 6,228 | 6,343 | 6,459 |
| $4,118 (the price now) | 6,255 | 6,371 | 6,487 |
| $4,200 (about the ceiling of tonight’s scenarios) | 6,380 | 6,498 | 6,616 |
| $4,300 | 6,532 | 6,653 | 6,774 |
📍 If equities keep falling and drag gold to $4,000 with the dollar at 55, the gram is 6,189. If gold goes on to $4,200 and the dollar eases to 54, the gram is 6,380. About 190 pounds between the two. Raw metal before making charge, hallmarking and tax.
Local prices track the international ounce through the EGP rate. Today the conversion factor between the ounce in dollars and a gram of 21K in Egyptian pounds is roughly 1.5153. Our counter price for 21K is EGP 6,240, and our range for the end of next week is EGP 5,708–6,325, most likely EGP 5,708–5,939 if the currency holds.
Every report since 30 August 2026, on its own dated page, unedited. Reports are written in full in Arabic, which remains the primary edition; each date below opens its English edition, and every figure quoted there appears on the Arabic page of the same date.