Home › Gold forecasts › Wednesday 2 September 2026
We called the direction and both downside targets correctly, and we misread why the market would move. Both halves are recorded here.
Spot $4,327 · −0.04% during the session · 21K in Suez EGP 6,230 ·
We said 42% decline, testing $4,400 then $4,360. The direction came through and both targets were hit. Gold fell from $4,441 to a low of $4,320 and closed Tuesday at $4,328 (−2.54%, down $113).
It did not stop at $4,360. It broke that and it broke $4,335, the critical level we had named ourselves.
And the part we got wrong, which matters more: we wrote that weak data would produce a bounce toward $4,460. The data came in weak — ISM 54.6 against 55.2 expected, JOLTS 7.271 million against 7.300 — and gold did not bounce. It kept falling. We read the market’s reaction wrongly.
| Price | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,327 | −0.04% during the session |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,120 | — |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,230 | — |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,340 | — |
Near a three-week low, quoted during the Wednesday session at 11:10 AM Cairo time. The dollar in Egyptian banks passed EGP 51, which is what kept the gram from falling further.
Notice one thing: hike odds went from 66% to 70% and gold did not fall. That is the first day in four where bad news failed to produce a new low. Not evidence of a reversal — evidence that the sellers in a hurry had finished for now.
Covering the Wednesday 2 September session, after the ADP report
🇪🇬 21K expected between EGP 6,125 at $4,254 and EGP 6,335 at $4,400, at an implied rate of EGP 51.2 to the dollar.
The August wave ran from about $4,040 at the end of July to about $4,600 at the 27 August peak — $560. Traders measure the correction as a fraction of that wave: 38.2% gives $4,386 (broken Tuesday), 50% gives $4,320 (Tuesday’s low, exactly), and 61.8% gives $4,254.
These levels are not magic. They work because thousands of traders and algorithms place orders at them, which turns them into a self-fulfilling prophecy. A 50% retracement of an upward wave is still healthy. Deeper than 61.8% usually means the wave itself is over — which is why $4,254 was the number we watched after $4,300.
| $4,400 | Resistance on any rebound |
| $4,370 | Upper edge of the range |
| $4,320 | 50% retracement of the August wave — Tuesday’s low |
| $4,300 | The defence line |
| $4,254 | 61.8% retracement — the next target if $4,300 breaks |
Gold held above $4,300 all night even as hike odds rose to 70%. If ADP broke it, the target was $4,254 and the story became a reversal rather than a correction. If it held, a rebound toward $4,370 was live.
Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · Egyptian counter prices and the bank dollar rate.
This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.