Home › Gold forecasts › Thursday 3 September 2026
The scenario we ranked last is the one that happened. We published the correction within hours, and the correction is what worked. Both parts stay on the record.
Spot $4,428 · +0.93% today · 21K in Suez EGP 6,340 ·
In the morning we said the most likely outcome (42%) was a break of $4,300 toward $4,254, and we put the rebound above $4,370 last, at 22%. Gold touched $4,300, held, reversed, and closed Wednesday at $4,387.78 (+1.38%). The last scenario in our ranking is the one that won.
We did not leave it until the next day. We published an evening update stating the error plainly and issuing a new reading: the decisive level is now $4,400. A close above it confirms the rebound and opens the road to $4,440. We also wrote that $4,300 remained the defence line, and that while it held this was a correction rather than a reversal.
Gold is at $4,428 today — above $4,400 and twelve dollars from the $4,440 target, with $4,300 intact. The reading we issued that night is the one that is working.
| Price | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,428 | +0.93% today |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,246 | — |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,340 | from 6,230 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,435 | — |
Second consecutive up session, above $4,400 for the first time in four days.
Watch the ceiling, though: the market was still pricing a 66% chance of a hike that month. The rebound was not happening because rate expectations had changed — it was happening because the inflation pressure coming from oil had eased. If oil turned back up, so would the whole picture.
Covering the Thursday 3 September session, before the payrolls report
🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez: EGP 6,272 – 6,386, most likely EGP 6,300 – 6,340, at an implied rate of EGP 50.9.
When we say 42% decline, we are simultaneously saying there is a 58% chance something else happens. The highest-weighted scenario is not a prediction and not a promise — which is why the levels matter more than the percentages. Take the level and work with it: above this, that; below this, the other. That is what let the evening update be right while the morning ranking was wrong.
A note for the counter specifically: the implied dollar rate inside our gold price was drifting down — 51.2 yesterday morning, 51.1 that evening, 50.9 today. So the gram’s rise from 6,230 to 6,340 came entirely from the ounce; the currency was quietly working against it. At yesterday’s rate the gram would have been about 6,377 rather than 6,340.
| $4,400 | Resistance yesterday, support today — the pivot of the whole move |
While the price holds above it, the rebound is confirmed. A daily close back below turns the move into a vent inside the correction, and the old $4,300–$4,400 range returns.
Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · ADP Research · Egyptian counter prices.
This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.