Gold Price Forecast — Friday 11 September 2026

❌ Forecast wrong

Grading Thursday’s call — wrong. A mid-day release broke all three scenarios

We weighted holding above $4,400 in a range of $4,390–$4,440 at 42%, and even our weakest scenario, at 25%, put the floor of any decline at $4,350. Gold broke both and fell to test $4,300 after a strong PPI print late in the Thursday session.

US producer prices for August came in at 5.4% annual against 5.3% expected. That took the odds of a hike the following week from 58–59% to about 71–73%, and gold broke through every level we had drawn.

The lesson: a major release published mid-session, after a forecast has gone out, can overturn the scenarios entirely — even when the trend before it had been clear and stable for two days.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,344	−1.45% today
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,177	—
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,580	—
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,280	from 6,310
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,383	—

Down from a two-week high after the PPI surprise, with a test of $4,300 support before a partial recovery to $4,344.

Where the market stood before CPI

The dollar index at 99.16, holding above 99 into the release.
The 10-year yield at 4.94%, near its highs, pressed by energy inflation and weak demand at the bond buyback.
Brent at $103.9, down 3.46% on the day but up 9% on the week, after the IEA cut its global demand forecast.
Silver at $63.99, sharply down from $68.5 the day before, hit harder by rate bets.
Hike odds jumped to 71–73% after PPI, from 58–59% the day before.

No set of scenarios can cover every possibility. That is a large part of why daily grading matters — not to prove we are always right, but to show how and why a particular release turns the picture over.

🎯 Our forecast after the CPI report

Covering the CPI release at 2:30 PM Cairo time through the end of the Friday session

38%Break below $4,300 → $4,258–$4,300

If headline and core inflation both come in above forecast and confirm the hike

34%Chop around $4,300–$4,380

If CPI lands close to expectations — headline 3.3–3.4%, core 2.4% — with no surprise

28%Rebound above $4,400 → $4,400–$4,460

If core inflation comes in below forecast

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez: EGP 6,156 – 6,448, most likely EGP 6,216 – 6,361, assuming the currency holds.

Levels that change the picture

$4,536	200-day moving average
$4,400	First resistance on any rebound
$4,300	Main support — the two-week low
$4,258	Next support
$4,220	6 August low

Breaking $4,300 opens the road to $4,258 and then $4,220. Reclaiming $4,400 needs a confirmed close before it can target $4,466 and then $4,536.

Sources and method

Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · FXStreet · TioMarkets · Vantage Markets · our own published price list.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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