Home › Gold forecasts › Saturday 12 September 2026
A third consecutive losing week for the ounce, but 21K in Suez fell only EGP 30 from Monday. The whole of next week comes down to Wednesday.
Spot $4,385 · −1.1% on the week · 21K in Suez EGP 6,290 ·
We said that if inflation came in close to expectations the result would be chop between $4,300 and $4,380 — the 34% scenario. Headline CPI came in at 3.4%, exactly as forecast, with core at 2.4% annual, and gold finished on the edge of that range.
In fairness to the record: the scenario we weighted highest (38%, a break below $4,300) happened for minutes only. Gold dipped under $4,300 briefly after the release and immediately recovered. The direction we favoured did not follow through, but the range we drew covered the session.
The lesson: monthly core inflation came in at 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, and gold rebounded anyway — because the market had already priced the hike. When bad news is expected, its effect flips into buying the dip.
| Price | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,385 | −1.1% on the week |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,188 | — |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,590 | — |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,290 | from 6,320 on Monday |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,391 | — |
Global markets are closed at the weekend; the ounce figure is Friday’s close and counter prices were reset at noon on Saturday. The ounce fell 1.1% on the week while 21K fell only 0.5%, because the Egyptian currency absorbed part of the move.
The thread that governed the whole week: Brent above $100 → energy inflation up 16% annual → hike odds at 90% → the 10-year yield at 4.95% → gold under pressure. The 30-year passed 5.42%, a 19-year high. That is gold’s biggest opponent right now.
Two weeks running, the same rule keeps confirming itself: the headlines that are “supposed” to lift gold — geopolitical tension, higher inflation — weigh on it when the market translates them into higher rates. Gold is not moving with fear at the moment. It is moving with the real yield on bonds. When yields stop climbing, gold will find its footing.
Covering the close of Friday 18 September, decided on Wednesday 16 September by the Fed decision and the dot plot
🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez next week: EGP 6,125 – 6,505, most likely EGP 6,168 – 6,341, assuming the currency holds.
Because what was not priced was the dot plot. If members saw another hike in December, yields would keep climbing and gold would stay under pressure. If the Fed said it was done, gold could rebound hard — and history says gold usually improves after an expected hike is actually delivered, rather than before it.
Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 47.8 against 51 expected, with year-ahead inflation expectations up from 4% to 4.6%. Recession plus inflation is a hard equation for any central bank.
| $4,535 | 200-day moving average |
| $4,400 | Resistance |
| $4,335 | 100-day moving average |
| $4,300 | Main support — held twice this week |
| $4,270 | 50-day moving average |
| $4,220 | 6 August low |
A daily close below $4,300 opens the road to $4,270 and then $4,220. Reclaiming $4,400 on a daily close is the first sign the pressure is over, with $4,490 and then $4,535 beyond it.
Kitco · Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · FXStreet · University of Michigan · our own published price list.
This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.