Gold Price Forecast — Sunday 13 September 2026

🔍 Method breakdown

📌 Correction — Friday settled officially at $4,349, not $4,385

In yesterday’s week-in-review we wrote a close of $4,385. That was the price in the US afternoon at the time the report was written. In the final hour of the session gold slipped and settled officially at $4,349.42 (source: Kitco). The actual weekly loss was −1.65%, not −1.1%.

This changes neither our reading of the week nor the grade on Friday’s call — the $4,300–$4,380 range was met, and met more precisely. But our rule is that a wrong number is corrected in public, and the figure this week’s scenarios are built on is $4,349.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,349	−1.65% on the week
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,188	—
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,590	—
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,290	—
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,391	—

Global markets closed until the Asian open at 1:00 AM Cairo time. Counter prices are Saturday’s noon reset.

What the market was saying before the meeting

The Kitco weekly survey turned bullish: 64% of analysts (9 of 14) saw gold higher for the week, against 14% bearish. Retail traders were less enthusiastic at 53%.
Hike odds at 87% after the inflation data. The hike itself was a surprise to nobody.
Bob Haberkorn of StoneX: if the hike does not happen on the 16th, metals trade considerably higher into year-end.
Adam Button of investingLive: the Fed will raise, which gives gold a downward lean — but if the tone is not hawkish, gold can rebound quickly.
The 10-year yield at 4.95%, still the heaviest weight on gold, with nothing on the calendar to bring it down before Wednesday.

In Fed weeks the movement before the decision is usually a narrow, misleading range, and the real move arrives in the first hour after the statement and during the press conference. So today’s scenarios cover only the period before the decision; the scenarios for the decision itself were published on Wednesday morning.

🎯 Our forecast from the open to the Fed decision

Covering tonight’s open through to just before the decision at 9:00 PM Cairo time on Wednesday 16 September

45%Waiting range → $4,340–$4,420

Short positions get closed before the event — buy the rumour — and gold moves inside the range without breaking it. The most common pattern before Fed meetings

30%Pressure before the decision → $4,290–$4,340

If yields keep climbing, with the 30-year at a 19-year high, or retail sales come in strong on Tuesday

25%A push higher before the decision → $4,420–$4,480

If the market starts pricing this as the last hike — the view Marc Chandler of Bannockburn held, seeing $4,460–$4,510 before the meeting

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez to Wednesday: EGP 6,219 – 6,480, most likely EGP 6,290 – 6,393, assuming the currency holds.

Levels that change the picture

$4,535	200-day moving average
$4,450–4,500	Major resistance
$4,400	Resistance
$4,300	Main support
$4,230	Next support

A daily close below $4,300 before Wednesday would mean the market was pricing a hawkish tone. A close above $4,400 would mean it was betting on a final hike — and in either case the reaction after the statement could reverse the move.

Sources and method

Kitco (the official close and the weekly survey) · CME FedWatch · FXStreet · our own published price list.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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