Gold Price Forecast — Monday 14 September 2026

❌ Forecast wrong

Grading Sunday’s call — wrong. We weighted consolidation and gold broke $4,300

We said the likely outcome was a quiet open and consolidation between $4,340 and $4,420 until Wednesday. The open was indeed quiet, with a high of $4,356. But through the European session oil jumped 2% and the 10-year yield approached 5%, and gold fell to $4,279 — below the floor of our own bearish scenario ($4,290).

The second scenario (30%, pressure and a test of $4,300) had the direction right, but our primary weighting was wrong and we say so as it is.

The lesson: before a Fed meeting with a hike priced at 90%, the market does not wait. It prices in advance.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,285	−1.44% today
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,131	−57
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,537	−53
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,240	−50
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,348	−43

Quoted at 12:45 PM Cairo time, with a session low of $4,279 and a high of $4,356. Counter prices are the noon reset; with the ounce below $4,300 the next reset would take 21K toward EGP 6,200.

Three things at once

Brent jumped above $107 after fresh strikes in the Middle East. Costlier oil means higher inflation for longer, which means rates higher for longer.
The 10-year yield reached 4.97% — gold’s biggest opponent.
Hike odds for Wednesday reached 86–90%, up from 67% before the inflation data.
Tim Waterer of KCM Trade: gold is not finding the conditions it likes — energy prices rising and rate expectations rising ahead of the Fed and the Bank of Japan.
Goldman Sachs held its $4,900 year-end target, so the large banks saw this pressure as temporary — which did not prevent further falls that week.

When an important support like $4,300 breaks two days before a major event, the market usually does not reclaim it before the event. The recovery comes after the decision, if the tone turns out softer than expected. That is why our weighting that day was chop below $4,300 rather than a rebound.

🎯 Our forecast for the next 24 hours

Covering from now to the morning of Tuesday 15 September, before US retail sales

40%Chop below $4,300 → $4,250–$4,310

The support is gone but the market will not make a large move before the decision

35%Continued decline → $4,215–$4,250

If oil keeps climbing or the yield clears 5%, targeting the 6 August low at $4,230 and $4,215

25%Rebound above $4,300 → $4,330–$4,360

Short covering before the event, or a pullback in oil

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez by tomorrow morning: EGP 6,097 – 6,307, most likely EGP 6,150 – 6,235, assuming the currency holds.

Levels that change the picture

$4,360	Today’s high
$4,300	Turned from support into resistance
$4,250	First support
$4,230	August low
$4,215	The technical target

A daily close back above $4,300 would mean the break was a trap and the consolidation case returns. A close below $4,250 would mean $4,215 comes before Wednesday — and the Fed decides everything after that.

Sources and method

Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · Kitco News · RoboForex · KCM Trade · our own published price list.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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