Gold Price Forecast — Tuesday 15 September 2026

✅ Forecast correct

Grading Monday’s call — the close was $4,311 and the consolidation held

We weighted (40%) chop below $4,300 in a range of $4,250–$4,310, with the market holding its breath and waiting for the Fed. That is what happened: gold touched $4,253 intraday and closed Monday at $4,311 — consolidation below the level, without the collapse to $4,215 that was our weakest scenario.

To be as fair to ourselves as we are hard on ourselves: this call is correct. The close landed exactly on the upper edge of our range, and the general direction — consolidation rather than collapse — is what we said.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,282	−0.36% today
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,142	—
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,548	—
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,250	from 6,240
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,357	—

Counter prices reset at 3:00 PM Tuesday with the ounce near $4,282. Session low $4,260, high $4,318; the market stayed open into the decision.

What the market was saying a day out

Hike odds near 90% for a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%. The hike was fully priced; the only possible surprise lay in the dot plot and Warsh’s tone.
Tony Sycamore of IG: how Warsh presents the hike matters more to gold than the hike itself. If he hints at a slower pace, that supports gold.
The 10-year yield touched 5% the previous day for the first time since October 2023 — the heaviest weight on gold, and any retreat gives it room.
Oil still above $102 on supply concerns, keeping inflation fear alive.

There is a difference between the hike and the tone of the hike. The market was already carrying the hike in the price. What could turn gold either way was Warsh’s delivery: hawkish and gold falls; a final hike delivered slowly and gold rebounds. That is why we did not bet hard on a direction before hearing it.

🎯 Our forecast from now to the Fed decision

Covering from now to just before the decision at 9:00 PM Cairo time on Wednesday 16 September

45%Waiting range → $4,280–$4,340

Retail sales may move the market for an hour, but the likeliest outcome is a narrow band until the decision — the usual behaviour before the Fed

30%Pressure before the decision → $4,230–$4,280

If retail sales come in strong or the 10-year holds above 5%

25%Rebound before the decision → $4,340–$4,400

Short covering before the event, or a retreat in oil and yields — buy the rumour before selling the news

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez to Wednesday: EGP 6,150 – 6,270, most likely around EGP 6,250, assuming the currency and the ounce hold near $4,280.

Levels that change the picture

$4,340–4,360	The stronger resistance
$4,300	First resistance
$4,250	Support
$4,230	August low
$4,215	The technical target

While gold trades below $4,300 the short-term trend is down. Breaking $4,230 before the decision opens $4,215 and then $4,150. A return above $4,340 cancels the pressure — and that was unlikely before Warsh spoke.

Sources and method

Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · IG · Kitco · our own published price list.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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