Gold Price Forecast — Wednesday 16 September 2026

✅ Forecast correct

Grading Tuesday’s call — consolidation $4,280–$4,340, and gold rose steadily inside it

We weighted (45%) a waiting range around $4,280–$4,340 into the decision. Gold closed Tuesday at $4,293, rose this morning to a high of $4,342, and stands at $4,329 (+0.85%) — the whole move inside the range we drew, with no break of $4,280 and no sustained push above $4,340.

That is the fourth correct call in a row. Record: 16 published, 13 correct.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,329	+0.85% today
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,222	—
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,621	—
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,320	from 6,250
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,417	—

Counter prices reset at 11:50 AM Wednesday. Session low $4,275, high $4,342 — with the large move expected after 9:00 PM rather than before it.

What the market was saying hours before the decision

Goldman Sachs expected a 25 basis point hike, with its own question also on the tone rather than the decision.
Kar Yong Ang of FXEmpire gave three scenarios: a hawkish hike to $4,250, a one-and-done hike to $4,400–$4,450, and a hold above $4,500 — close to our own reading.
FXStreet warned gold could fall toward $4,000 if Warsh chose hawkishness — the worst case over a longer horizon, not that night.
The 10-year yield above 4.95%. If it fell after the press conference, that would be the clearest signal of a rebound.
Our rule: the first 30 minutes after the statement are usually noise. The real direction is set during and after the press conference.

The hike had been priced for two weeks. What would be priced that night was what came next: if the dot plot said another hike in December, gold falls; if it said enough, gold rises. That is why the scenarios are built on the tone rather than the decision — and why we put 50% on Warsh staying hawkish, with inflation still at 3.4%.

🎯 Our forecast for gold’s reaction to the decision

Covering from the statement at 9:00 PM Cairo time to the morning of Thursday 17 September

50%Hike plus hawkish tone → $4,230–$4,290

The dot plot points to another hike before year-end and Warsh focuses on inflation. Sell the news, and gold retests $4,250 and possibly $4,230

35%Hike delivered slowly → $4,380–$4,450

Warsh presents the hike as a limited adjustment and the dot plot signals nothing further. Yields and the dollar fall and gold rebounds hard

15%A surprise hold → above $4,450–$4,500

A complete surprise: the dollar drops and gold jumps — but the market priced this at only 10–13%

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez by tomorrow morning: EGP 6,175 – 6,497 — most likely, on a hawkish tone, EGP 6,175 – 6,263; on a softer tone, EGP 6,394 – 6,497, assuming the currency holds.

Levels that change the picture

$4,400–4,450	The rebound target
$4,342	Today’s high
$4,300	The pivot
$4,275	Today’s low
$4,250	Target of the hawkish scenario

A close after the press conference above $4,342 means the market read the tone as softer than expected and the road to $4,400 is open. Breaking $4,275 means a hawkish tone and $4,250 next. Grade us in the morning on the close, not on the first fifteen minutes.

Sources and method

Trading Economics · CME FedWatch · Goldman Sachs · FXEmpire · FXStreet · our own published price list.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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