Gold Price Forecast — Thursday 17 September 2026

✅ Forecast correct

Grading Wednesday’s call — we said 50% hike plus hawkish tone to $4,230–$4,290, and it closed at $4,263

We published at noon on Wednesday, nine hours before the decision, that the most likely outcome (50%) was a hike plus a hawkish tone, taking gold to $4,230–$4,290.

What happened at 9:00 PM: the Fed raised 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% unanimously, the dot plot pointed to another hike before the end of 2026 (12 of 18 members), and Warsh said monetary conditions had not been restrictive enough — the hawkish tone precisely. Gold fell from $4,366 before the decision to a low of $4,235 and closed the session at $4,263 (−0.7%) — inside the range we wrote.

Grading is on the close, as our rule states, not on a moment. That is the fifth correct call in a row. Record: 17 published, 14 correct.

💰 Where things stood

	Price	Reference
Spot gold, per ounce	$4,326	+1.5% today
24K, per gram, we sell	EGP 7,257	—
22K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,652	—
21K, per gram, we sell	EGP 6,350	from 6,320
18K, per gram, we sell	EGP 5,442	—

Counter prices are the last official reset (Wednesday noon) and move through the day with the ounce. Session low $4,257, high $4,336, previous close $4,263.

Sell the news, then buy the low

The first two hours after the decision took gold to $4,235, a one-month low.
Then the buyers returned into the US close and the Asian open: the dollar index eased to 100.3, oil fell, which cools the inflation the Fed is fighting, and Middle East tension around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb revived haven demand.
FXEmpire: gold rebounded from the $4,256–$4,283 support but remains below the downtrend line; resistance at $4,354, then $4,403, then $4,434.
FXStreet: support next at $4,200 then the psychological $4,000; resistance $4,300 then the 100-day average at $4,326 — where gold stood at that moment exactly.
Fed projections: members’ median rate for end-2026 at 4.1%, implying another hike, with inflation forecasts revised up to 3.7% headline and 3.4% core.

A rebound after a hawkish decision is not unusual — it happened at most Fed meetings that year: a violent move in the first two hours and then the market thinks again. What was different this time is that the thing driving gold, oil and the dollar, did not come from the Fed at all. So if oil turned back up or the dollar strengthened, the rebound could evaporate just as fast. Which is why our highest weight was consolidation, not a rally.

🎯 Our forecast for the Thursday session

Covering the Thursday 17 September session through the morning of Friday 18 September

45%Consolidation after the rebound → $4,280–$4,360

The rebound stops below resistance at $4,354–$4,360; buyers who entered at the low take profit and the hawkish tone prevents a push higher

30%Rebound continues → $4,360–$4,420

The dollar keeps retreating and oil keeps falling; breaking $4,360 opens $4,400–$4,403

25%Back to the downside → $4,220–$4,280

The market reprices the second hike, the dollar and the 10-year rise again, and gold retests yesterday’s low at $4,235

🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez by tomorrow morning: EGP 6,194 – 6,488, most likely EGP 6,282 – 6,400, assuming the currency holds.

Levels that change the picture

$4,354–4,360	Resistance
$4,336	Today’s high
$4,303	First support
$4,256–4,283	The support zone
$4,235	Yesterday’s low

A close above $4,360 means the rebound is serious and $4,400 is near. Breaking $4,303 means the rebound was a pause for breath, with $4,256 and then $4,235 to follow. Grade us in the morning, on the close.

Sources and method

Federal Reserve statement and dot plot · Trading Economics · FXEmpire · FXStreet · Vantage · IG · our own published price list.

This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.

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