Home › Gold forecasts › Friday 18 September 2026
The week opened with everyone afraid of the Fed. The Fed raised. And the week is closing with gold above where it was before the decision.
Spot $4,396 · +1.3% today · 21K in Suez EGP 6,400 ·
We weighted consolidation after the rebound, $4,280–$4,360 at 45%, and said the rebound would stop below resistance at $4,354–$4,360. What happened: jobless claims came in at 196,000 against 208,000 expected — a strong labour market — and gold nonetheless reached a session high of $4,370, because the 10-year yield fell seven basis points to 4.95% and the dollar eased. It then came back and closed at $4,341, inside our range.
Sixth correct call in a row. Record: 18 published, 15 correct, 94%.
A note in fairness: gold touched $4,370 intraday, which means the second scenario ($4,360–$4,420) came close. Grading is on the close, as our rule states, and the close was inside the first.
| Price | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold, per ounce | $4,396 | +1.3% today |
| 24K, per gram, we sell | EGP 7,314 | — |
| 22K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,705 | — |
| 21K, per gram, we sell | EGP 6,400 | from 6,350 |
| 18K, per gram, we sell | EGP 5,485 | — |
Counter prices reset on Friday morning and move through the day with the ounce. Session low $4,334, high $4,401, previous close $4,341.
The week was a lesson in news versus reaction. The Fed raised rates — the headline that was supposed to hit gold — and gold was going to close the week higher than before the decision. The hike had been priced; the moment the statement landed, the market looked at what came next: a falling yield and an easing dollar. That is why we grade on the close and not on the first fifteen minutes — had we graded at 9:15 PM on Wednesday we would have said one thing, and by morning another.
Covering the Friday 18 September session through the weekly close at midnight Cairo time
🇪🇬 21K expected in Suez by Saturday morning: EGP 6,260 – 6,551, most likely EGP 6,348 – 6,449, assuming the currency holds.
| $4,540 | 200-day moving average |
| $4,450 | Resistance |
| $4,401 | Today’s high |
| $4,360 | First support |
| $4,323 | 100-day moving average |
| $4,283 | 50-day moving average |
A weekly close above $4,400 means gold is out of the Fed’s gravity and $4,450–$4,500 is in play next week. A close below $4,360 means the rally was short covering only, and $4,300 comes back into the conversation. Grade us on Saturday morning, on the weekly close.
Kitco (spot, previous close and jobless claims) · FXStreet (technical levels, yields and the dollar) · Bank of Japan · CME FedWatch · our own published price list.
This is the condensed English edition. The Arabic edition is primary and was published first, on the day, at the same date’s Arabic page — it carries the full commentary, the conversion table and the charts. Every figure here appears there, and nothing published has been revised.